Decided, what needs to be done with a fresh look at the structure and main levels of SPX. First, what needs to be answered, this is the fact of the market rebound from the devil's bottom 666 to 61.8%(fibo) and then rollback to 38.2%( fibo) and now we are below 50%(fibo). As well as, is slightly higher 2 shoulder or you can say 2 top level 1131 and of course the level 1150, which was top in January before a slight correction, so I think,what is this zone ( red rectangle)represents the main stumbling block" for the market.
Well, below is the critical zone 875-882(fibo), breakdown of which will cause a complete breakdown of the recovery structure from the bottom 666 with the threat of new lows. The two blue lines represent the descending channel( bear market), which all the same has overcome the market and a return to it will be considered a very negative factor.
Each scenario has its own probability and everything will depend on, what the news feed will bring us. I believe, what a hike to the level 955 fits perfectly, as in a fundamental picture, and in technical, without significantly disrupting the recovery structure. From the point of view of the next impulse, it's still difficult to say unequivocally, What will happen. If consider, that the market rejected the red zone, hence , greater likelihood of testing 1050 and below, that is, I see 55-45 on rollback.Well, if super-duper positive news comes out, then the 'red zone" can be overcome, although it's hard for me to find a catalyst, excluding liquidity, injected by the Fed and an attempt to value portfolio managers to support the market. Also, lack of negativity can be considered a positive factor. From a positional trading perspective, I will rather navigate in SHORT, when risk-reward and tipping point and other factors " parade planet" будут иметь место.
There are many qualities and skills, which traders need to succeed in the financial markets. Ability to understand fundamental market drivers and determine the direction of trends – here are some of the key skills. However, none of them are as important., as the ability to limit emotions and maintain discipline. Trading Psychology The psychological aspect of trading is extremely important, and the reason for […]
Partial translation of the topic , led by an experienced trader lescor (Canada)
lescor 01-10-10 03:57 AM
I decided to keep a public trade journal on 2010 year. I actually considered if this is a good idea, but that's why i decided to do this.
For the last couple of years of my trading, I gradually became more complacent and more lazy. I was lucky to have a couple of really good years and I didn't have a strong incentive to give my best in the long hours., to work on new ideas and to improve current. I am somewhat concerned about, what 2010 the year and beyond can be tough, as the government interferes more and more in our business and because of computers, with which we compete, it becomes harder to win and play by different rules. May be, it will help motivate me, to get down to business and stay ahead of the game. It will also keep me on top of keeping my records, which I really missed over the last year.
There is a lot of negativity expressed on this site, disbelief and cynicism about trade. I think, Most people, who are well prepared and ready to work, can become traders. I hope this year is not bad and I can provide some optimism to those, Who works, and prove the haters wrong.
In my diary there will be superficial features of that, how and what do I trade. Most of that, that I trade liquidity sensitive, and I don't want to invite people, to try and reverse engineer my system and then, compete with them for order execution. I am happy to take part in discussions on issues such as, for example, size positions, risk management, emotion management, etc., but don't be offended, if I do not answer your question like “what time and price, by which you entered this promotion and why did you exit?»
I'm just going to report weekly results. I have always treated daytime P / L like noise and do not pay attention to any time slots shorter, than a week, when it comes to tracking profits.
Difficulty setting goals for the year, as it is highly dependent on volatility. In my opinion, i will worry, if I am not able to make an average of at least $ 20k / month. $40k / month is one, what i consider on average, apart from the crazy end period 2008 of the year. As I already said, I'm ready, that this year will be difficult, so I'll be happy to scrape 250-300k. I will call it my goal for this year and I hope, that I will reach her.
Most of my trading is done on a prop account, which starts the year with $110,000. I also have a retail account, more than that, but most of the money is reserved for taxes, living expenses, etc., as well as to pay for a new house, which I am building. I trade on a retail account every day, but usually in a small volume and doing superficially different things. I do not trade on it, when volatility jumps. I do not expect this my retail account to return more than 30% from my total P / L.
lescor 01-10-10 04:08 AM Surprisingly good first week. Net $23k на, about, 700,000 shares проторгованных.
I do not know if I will publish account statements every week, but I will publish the first week, to make things set.
lurefo 01-10-10 04:46 AM Lescor, without going into details, can you tell us a little about your trading strategy? Trend Trading, U-turns, discoveries, RTM, etc.?
On the other hand, what are you going to change in your trading this year to solve problems, which you mentioned in the first post i.e.. with increasing competition from computers and decreasing volatility?
Pension_Admin 01-10-10 04:52 AM Hello, Lescor. You can tell about yourself and about, how did you become successful?
Also, without going into unnecessary details, could you please tell us about your money management strategy?
BPtrader 01-10-10 08:30 AM Pension_Admin прав. We are not interested in trading details. We don't want to know about charts, charts, open or closed account balance, etc..
We are interested in your personal stories, how and when did you start trading, how long did it take, until you become profitable, how much did you do initially, significant events in your trading career, etc..
lescor 01-10-10 04:20 PM Something about myself: I trade full time already 8 years. Before that I was a firefighter and had a great interest in the markets for several years.. I didn't know, what would i do, but the market siren song brought me back. I, mostly, lost all of my disposable income over a period of approximately 7 years, I have replenished accounts, who ended up at zero. Finally, i was just pissed, I decided, what gotta take and count this game, get out of it or pass 12 steps of the rehabilitation program. I started reading Gary B. Smith, when he wrote for thestreet.com and only his approach, Seemed, worked with me. He used very very basic technical analysis for swing trading stocks and emphasized things like position sizing., money management, expected duration, etc.. It looked like a glowing light bulb, because now I could see how trade could be reduced to sheer numbers, and I really liked numbers and math. Before that, I only followed hot advice., newsletter rumors and recommendations. But this new approach suddenly made sense of it all. I read every article, what he wrote and every book, which he recommended and took notes, to consolidate it all. I have fixed the current trading plan, I learned MS Excel to track it and for a whole year of trading I did not lose money! I didn’t do anything, but I had all the statistics for review and new understanding of this game.
It was deep enough in my blood then and I knew, what a full-time transition should do. So I started my work with $40,000 for trade and putting aside a year of living expenses. I left my wife and children behind and drove across the country to trade in 3 months in the prop office, to try and speed up the learning process. It took about 4 Months, so that I stop losing money, until then i found that, what clicked and it worked pretty well since then.
As for how I traded, first of all, I only traded stocks. I will dabble in futures and options, but they are just trading at random. Most of what I do is reversal based.. I have about six different strategies, but two of them bring most of the profit. Some of them have some level of automation.
My trading is still based on principles, which I have studied more 10 years ago. Primarily – capital preservation. It took a long time, but the constant focus on this approach made the trade impartial.
lescor 01-10-10 07:44 PM I answer some questions…
I didn't really run automated systems and “black” boxes. I have one system, which is automated on 100%, but she only trades the first 15 minutes at the beginning of the day. Most of my things – this is bigger “gray” boxes, where the system signals the setup and I decide to enter or not. I also use automation to manage trades and exits and to quickly send a large number of orders.. I would like to know how to program, but the learning process seems to me too long. I was very lucky, that I have friends, who know how to program and we worked together to develop the system. If i knew, how to program, maybe i could run more systems. I am not doing anything special to deal with more computerized competition. My time frame is long enough and “black” boxes haven't come to this yet.
I can increase volume in some of my strategies, but this is largely due to the physical ability to enter and exit without killing stocks, especially if you need to enter / exit quickly. The size in positions is based on, mainly on that, how much pain i am willing to take, if the situation goes according to the worst-case scenario. Most, my trading includes staying in many promotions at the same time, like a basket (basketball) or portfolio. My main strategy – i get -10k several times a month, and i am ok with it. I start swearing around -20k and when it's very rare -30 -40, I start to fidget in my chair. So I have to look at my stats, volatility, news of the day and determine how bad things can be, and accordingly determine the base volume of the position. I don't think about, how much can I do, I always think about, how much can I lose.
Leave my family, when I started, it was really hard. Our children were 2 And 4 years and I have not seen my wife for almost 3 Months, living in a dark hole and being 12 hours in the office. But she's a wonderful woman and she believed in me and knew, what is that, what I should do.
Futures vs. stock – I have never made enough effort to trade futures. It seems to me, there are more 10.000 various stocks and only a few dozen futures. There are many more advantages and disadvantages to promotions., so I'd rather spend more time looking for them, than futures in a competitive futures market.
How many different stocks did I trade last week?? Not sure exactly, but probably about 50-60.
NoDoji 01-10-10 07:44 PM _________________________________________________________________________ Quote from lescor: Most of what I do is reversal based.. _________________________________________________________________________
You mainly trade this strategy with or against the trend?
Or do you look at situations, when prices constantly jump in the range and trade from the boundaries of the range?
What is the average time spent in a position?
lescor 01-10-10 07:49 PM
Counter-trend or gap filling.
I will do this as well (another strategy)
Depends on strategy, from 10 seconds to 6,5 hours. I also have swings and weekly positions., but that's not much of it, What am I doing.
lescor 01-11-10 04:58 AM Answers on questions:
How do you scan setups, mathematically or on your own? I use Trade Ideas scanner, but my things, who earn on “bread and butter” , use Excel to calculate entry point.
Are you a news trader or purely technical? I trade everything, which provides a good opportunity, but I do not risk very much, unless it is part of a real system, which I have been trading for a while.
Are all your winning trades high reward / low risk in nature?? I do not calculate the reward / risk ratio for my trade.
What precision do you achieve in transactions?? My main strategies – 55-65%, i have one, which has almost 100% winnings, but these are rare deals.
You add to losing trades? How about profitable? 1. Sometimes, But not often. 2. Rarely
Are you considering fundamental news or it doesn't matter day trading?
I try not to think too much, but just carry out your plan. I spend a lot of time, reading the news, and weeding out stocks, if i think, that because of the news, they may behave unpredictably.
You deal with company reports? (Before or after) To – do you have a guess and am betting on coin toss? Not. After – very rarely.
You trade the same stocks? If yes, how big is the stock list ? If you change your stock list, how do you scan for today's list? Yes, the same list. About 600 Shares.
In addition to stocks, have you considered ETFs?? I would only trade ETFs or futures on technical patterns, especially swing trade. But at the moment I am not doing anything like this.
What is the largest drawdown since you became a profitable trader?? I have only had two unprofitable months since the yak started making money consistently.. A feature of one of my main strategies is that, that sometimes I have to take painful blows. Worst and quickest sheer pain was August 2007, when did the first hints of a credit crunch emerge?. I think it was about a drop 70% behind 20 minutes. I have always strived to diversify moss strategies and it has proven, that it was a real help in flattening the curve of my capital growth line.
lescor01-12-10 03:01 PM I trade in a prop firm, my purchasing power (Buying Power) – it's all I need. I often use more 1 million. during the day. The number of trades is usually proportional to the volatility. There have been few of them in the last few months., 10-20 in a day. In other cases, it may be +100. I manage most of them manually..
lescor01-12-10 10:52 PM _________________________________________________________________________ Quote from Gabfly1: What is the predetermined risk you calculate on an average winning trade? _________________________________________________________________________ I can not say exactly, because. I have no predetermined risk and I do not use stops. I try to give the deal time, and usually, when i get a loss, I continue to trade according to the plan, until something like that happens, what i'm starting to misunderstand. _________________________________________________________________________ Quote from jnbadger: In these difficult times, one can assume, that most of your trade (except OPG) falls on active time? _________________________________________________________________________ Most of my trades were always during the first 90 minutes of the day, if the market is really active. Actually, last summer, I rarely sat at my desk after the first 1,5 trading hours. _________________________________________________________________________ Quote from TheAngryHermit: You say, what gaps – most of your trade. In this way, one might say, what do you expect hep, to trade on its close (at least partial)? My experience was, that gaps are growing, and the gaps keep falling. _________________________________________________________________________ Hep can go either way, but i try to apply some filters, which increase the chances of trading in my favor.
At the moment there is no time to translate the topic.. If you are interested – you can always read the original. There is a lot of interesting and useful information..
I'd like to know who has any experience with Interactive Brokers. You are welcome, Share your experience on futures and stocks execution and how they are supported. Thank you About Interactive Brokers Broker Interactive Brokers - ECN Broker, company, based in 1977. The company is headquartered in the USA, regional offices are located in Switzerland, Canada, Hong Kong, Uk, australia, Hungary, Of Russia, India, China and Estonia. The broker is SEC accredited, FINRA, NYSE, FCA и IIROC.
Есть подозрение, что скоро выйдет акс-трейд версии 2.0. По крайней мере все предпосылки для этого есть, нужно только время выделить на проведение апгрейда и тестирование новой версии) Пока морально готовлюсь к изменениям. Растягиваю удовольствие)
А вообще всё и все вокруг как-то стремительно меняется. Ксюха неожиданно начала готовить всякие вкусности с завидной переодичностью. Иногда бывает не получается, психует выбрасывая) Не влезай, убъёт. Ну а ваще прикольно, то сырного супа сварит, то маффинов напечёт, то печенья… Имхо крайне положительная тенденция.
В своё время, я тащился от идеи трекеров-торрентов. Ну просто о-о-о-чень по-душе мне идея такой системы файлообмена. Сейчас я начинаю въезжать в покер. Сами участники (по крайней мере те, кого я знаю) очень мне симпатичны. Они пожалуй единственные, кто не парятся рассказать о своих доходах. Я вот ни от кого от трейдеров не видел статистики. А покер плееры запросто выкладывают. В месяц провёл за игрой стока-то часов, сыграл стока-то рук, заработал стока-то денег… Не какие-то там проценты… Вот скажите, если у меня на счету было 0, а сейчас $40, сколько процентов я сделал? 5% или 150%? От хулиарда или от сотни баксов? Да пох на эти проценты! Никого они не ебут, потому что информации никакой не несут. Скажи конкретно или не говори вовсе.
В личной жизни какая-то засада ): Видимо для уравновешивания.
it was worth leaving and here from the & quot; news" about the Spanish institution they mold `` News ''. I will keep silent about the North Koreans, in LJ there are direct experts on the issue (if you really don't know, then ask).
this, By the way, quite market efficiency. you never know when the market will start winning back something and what exactly is already in prices, and how long is it in prices, more importantly.
if anything, then in Spain, this is not the beginning, there is a lot of fun with the banking system. the market smells like bear meat, so if you catch, so little, what just to calm the hotkey instinct))
after talking with the support of this terminal, demo access was issued quickly enough. I had to see, what kind of platform, which costs as much 200 Baku per month! Besides, very likely in the near future I will work on it, so you need to know, what's what (when, where and how – my little secret :)
I was immediately surprised by the additional conspiracy of the developers – if you don't have “special password”, which must be entered during installation, then you sterlinh won't even be able to install :)
I was given.. i could… Further, I enter the demo server settings, demo pass and demologin.
after login, a bunch of windows pop up in the center of the screen, on top of each other. this is the so called demo-layout: ribbon, cup, news, blotter, level1 and all the standard mess.
first impressions – done neatly and beautifully! this is not laser trade for you – with its own style ala windows95 and not blackwood, where in the ribbon and glass the impact font just kills (hope, it can be changed, otherwise I will not envy users of this terminal)..
ribbon! at first they scared me, that there are no quotes. eat! you just need to cut them in additionally.. by the way, very strange quotas are printed, not like in a laser, not as in the signal.. there are too many quotas he collects for all ecn's in a glass, but only for those, where were the last deals. as a result, a large bid or ask will be printed very quickly and will go below the visible area.. it seems to me. in combat conditions will be more visible. Fortunately, in the same place, in settings, you can optionally disable those ecn'y, from which you do not need to show quotas.
cup… usual myself, pleased with all kinds of color solutions, which can be selected for the convenience of the eye in the settings. everything is saved in a separate layout, which can subsequently be applied to each glass. when you click on the buy or sell button, you will be additionally asked “are you sure whether you want to shortcut or hammer for a certain amount?”. how to disable this confirm – I haven't found it yet.. or not at all, or he was hidden where chorty.
charts! shotogamno.. look at the screenshot, what is the distance between the candles, and the candles themselves are skinny and beloved. how to make them wider, I didn't understand, although I went through all the settings on the charts from and to 5 times…
all in all… for a reason he is used in swifttrade, but what is this “nesprostizm” I don't understand yet :)
since google.images did not produce anything more or less normal in size, when i tried to look at the sterling trader interface, then I attach my own version – I just joined one window to another.
upd: noticed another unpleasant “peculiarity” – when the program is closed, every time it hangs for seconds 10-15 and only then the platform is closed.. I don’t know at all so, or I was lucky alone. amd x2 3ggz system, 3gb DDR2, winXPsp3
