- ⚠️ U.S. Release. The Fed interest rate decision will take place today at 21:00 (Mosk. time)
- ⚠️ Today will be held U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference in 21:30 (Mosk. time)
- Analyst Expect, what FED and the Bank of England meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will raise the stakes on 75 b.p..
(* to 3.75-4.00% in the U.S. and up to 3.00% in the UK)
- Expected, that the Fed will raise rates today 0.75% and give a signal, which can slow down the rate of increase.
? Bitcoin – $20 473 (↑0,40%)
? S&P 500 – 3 859 (↓0,33%)
?? USD/RUB – 61,97 (↑1,59%)
?? USD/UAH – 36,88 (↑0,00%)
? Gold – $1 652 (↑0,74%)
⚫️ Oil Brent – $94,66 (↑2,30%)
US stock indices are declining for the second day in a row
S&P 500 Lost 0,4%, Dow Jones — 0,2%, a high-tech Nasdaq — 0,9%. All after the data is published, indicating a stable labor market in the United States. According to them, the number of vacancies in the country in September increased by 437 000 - to 10,7 million. All this has strengthened the confidence of investors in, that Fed policy can remain tight even with the threat of recession. Expected, that today the US regulator will announce another rate hike on 0,75%.
▪️ Asian stocks are rising
Asia's Broad Equity Index (excluding Japan) MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index rose today by 0,2%, Chinese CSI 300 added 1,4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 2,5%, and South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei have barely budged. Investors in Asia prepared for the results of the Fed meeting at the end of the day. Many are waiting for signs of a slowdown in rate growth in the future., writes Reuters.
▪️ Shares of energy companies are the main locomotive of the growth of the US market this year
Since January, the energy sector is part of the S&P 500 grew up on 65%. While, how America's broad index of stocks fell by 19%, evidenced by factSet data. Without excessive growth of securities of energy companies for quarter S&P 500 would report a decrease by 5,1% instead of the actual increase by 2,2%, analysts have calculated.
▪️ Oil is growing against the background of data on the decline in reserves in the US
WTI futures rose to $90 per barrel, which is approximately on 2% above the previous session's closing level. All because, that the American Petroleum Institute reported: crude oil inventories in the US last week decreased by 6,53 million barrels. Additional support for commodities valued in currency was provided by a weaker dollar, making them more attractive to investors, notes Bloomberg.
- Average October estimated price gas on the stock exchange in Europe decreased by 34.2% – to $1377
- Europe is preparing for a warm month, which will ease the load on gas storage facilities: Prices gas fell, but remain the average estimated price of the nearest
- gas futures in Europe are declining for the second month: in October it dropped to 34,2%, compared to September, up to about 1377 dollars per thousand cubic meters. 80% above last year's level
- Deliveries of Ukrainian Grain to ports Stop
- Russia resumes Implementation “grain transaction”.Wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange is becoming cheaper on 6% on the news about the restoration of the work of the Black Sea “grain corridor”. ❗️Erdogan said, what “grain corridor” will restore the work, agreement reached after talks with Shoigu.
- Global food crisis deepens as Russia pulls out of grain transaction
- North Korea released towards the Sea of Japan 10 Missiles, one of them crossed the sea border for the first time since the end of the Korean War in 1953 G.
- Hong Kong tries to prove, that it is still the dominant financial center
- Veon is studying the possibility of selling a Russian business, including company “VimpelCom” (the brand “Beeline). Promotions “Veon” grow on 20%
USA:
- Position of the Biden administration, which is that, that Ukraine itself must determine the moment for the end of the conflict with Russia, becomes untenable. The U.S. Should Begin To Create The Conditions for an Upcoming Peace Deal With Russia.
- Saudi Arabia and the United States share information about possible Iranian attack
- Jeremy Siegel:Shares will rise by 20-30% for the next two years, and house prices will fall by 15% from its peak
China:
- China completes construction of its own space station, which will provide him with significant political influence against the background of the US refusal to grant Beijing access to the ISS
- China for a week introduces lockdown around Foxconn's main plant, which can seriously affect supplies iPhone
FED
Goldman Sachs:
A potential slowdown in the Fed's tightening rate combined with “Easy” positioning and expectation of strong seasonal fluctuations in the fourth quarter. led to the rally. In the 17th Rally of the Bear Market with 1970 G. S&P 500 grew on average by 15% behind 44 of the day
- Economists warn of the risk of a deeper recession in the US, because. The Fed continues to fight inflation
- All indicators point to a decline in inflation to about 3%, there's not even a need to plunge the economy into recession. So the Fed's impatience is a risk., because. the Fed's policy effect is lagging behind
- JP Morgan : Stock market can take off on 10% on Wednesday when, if the Fed raises rates by only 50 b.p..
Oil:
- The price of oil can "easily" exceed the mark of $100 per barrel after the tightening of EU sanctions against Russian energy carriers
Promotions:
-
- Profit Toyota falls as, how chip problems continue
- Musk offers a premium subscription plan Twitter for $8/mo. Musk plans to increase Twitter revenues with paid subscriptions.
- Goldman Sachs:
- Our updated forecasts suggest a soft landing, but the prospect of a recession will have an impact on management decision-making
- We have lowered our estimate of buyback growth in 2023 G. with +10% to -10% YoY, but it will be compensated by articles such as: research and development (+10%), Dividends (+5%).
- Capital expenditures will increase by +3%, which is much slower compared to 2021 And 2022 gg..
- Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett earned about $13 billion. on Chevron And Occidental
- Abiomed (ABMD): yesterday +50%. The company announced, what will be purchased Johnson & Johnson behind $16.6 billion
Uber: report for the iii quarter:
report better than expected
revenue: $8.34 billion. (+72% YoY, +3% QoQ)
profit: -$1.2 billion. (+50% YoY, +54% QoQ)
modifying MAPCs**: +2 million.
total MAPCs**: 124 million. (+14% YoY, +2% QoQ)
CEO Uber:
- Thanks to constant monitoring of expenses, with regard to headcount and a balanced approach to capital allocation, we are well positioned to ensure growing profitability in the coming quarters.
- Even though, that the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, Uber's core business is stronger, than ever.
- October is considered the best month for the company as a transportation, and the total volume of gross orders of the company.
AMD: report for the iii quarter:
report mixed
revenue: $5.57 billion. (+29% YoY, -15% QoQ)
profit: $0.66 billion. (-93% YoY, +47% QoQ)
operating expenses: $2.43 billion. (+113% YoY, -3% QoQ)
- Third quarter results were below our expectations due to a weakening PC market and a significant reduction in inventories throughout the PC supply chain.
- The driver of revenue growth was the growth of the data center segment, games and embedded devices
- Decrease in net revenue by -93% YoY is associated with depreciation fees for the acquisition of Xilinx and investments in R&D
- The Dutch holding Veon will sell the Russian business - the company VimpelCom, which operates under the Beeline brand. The company reported, that she started the search for a buyer and chooses the best option "for all interested parties".
The foreign origin of the shareholder has imposed a number of restrictions on the operator in the current situation. (for example, he was left without state orders). As Kommersant writes (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5646363), the company can go to the Russian management, which will help reduce the risk of sanctions and resolve issues with regulators.
? On the news about the deal, papers Veon rushed up. On 11.00 MSK they grew by +23,28%, to 27,8 rub.
Cryptocurrency:
- Glassnode analysts in the traditional weekly report stated the lack of transition of the initiative from bears to bulls.
Experts fear a new wave of redistribution of coins, since the bitcoin rate remains in the range $16 500–21 100, reflecting the delicate balance of supply and demand. Based on the length of bottom formation cycles in the past, experts stressed, that this process may still last for some time.
- Official payment partner of FIFA Visa presented a Crypto.com collection on the platform NFT, dedicated to the upcoming FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
- Money Transfer Service MoneyGram Provided US Customers with the Option to Buy Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin in the mobile app.
- Price Dogecoin Exceeded $0,15 for the first time since April
- Web3 ecosystem losses from exploits since the beginning of the year have approached $3 billion
- ? Analysts Predict Consolidation bitcoin in the range $16 500–21 100
- NFT-platform GameStop integrated trading of game assets from Immutable
- The court allowed SEC edit documents to Hinman's speech about Ethereum
- Three cryptocurrency-oriented companies announced the upcoming staff reductions:
▫️BitMEX: 30%;
▫️Galaxy Digital: 20%;
▫️Digital Currency Group: 10%.
-
- Binance announced the launch of a new index contract with x25 leverage on the futures platform - BlueBird. It will include Binance Coin (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Mask Network (MASK). Against the background of the announcement of the course MASK grew by 60%.
- Derivative exchange Deribit reported the hacking of a hot wallet. Intruders stole $28 million.
- USDC and USDP stablecoin issuers Circle and Paxos have received licenses to provide payment services from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, performing the functions of the Central Bank.
- Monetary Authority Singapore tested operations using tokenized fiat currencies as part of a pilot project to explore the potential DeFi Polygon and Aave protocols contributed to the implementation. At the next stages of the pilot project, other blockchains will be involved..
- ? Bloomberg: U.S. authorities are digging under again Tether
- MoneyGram Payment Company, which used to work with XRP, added BTC purchase to mobile app, ETH and LTC
- Study: In October hackers Hacked Web3–Services on $760,2 million, since the beginning of the year, their production has become cryptocurrencies almost on $3 billion ?
The world's largest economies:
- USA: $25.35 trillion.
- China: $19.91 trillion.
- Japan: $4.91 trillion.
- Germany: $4.26 trillion.
- India: $3.53 trillion.
- United Kingdom: $3.38 trillion.
- France: $2.94 trillion.
- Canada: $2.22 trillion.
- Italy: $2.06 trillion.
- Brazil: $1.83 trillion.
The Way of Elon Musk:
51 year: buys Twitter
45 years: launches Boring Co.
45 years: launches Neuralink
44 of the year: launches OpenAI
32 of the year: launches Tesla
30 years: launches SpaceX
28 years: launches X (later PayPal)
24 of the year: launches Zip2
19 years: sells computers in college dormitory
