About & quot; Japanese script" development of the US economy (and others like them) everyone heard. Interesting, what's in the concept of 'japanese script" different people include completely different, albeit somewhat correlated ideas. Among the general public, this' scenario" usually means two points: deflation and non-recovery of asset prices (for example stocks). The more advanced ones have a third point. – zero nominal GDP growth. During the discussion (especially in post-Soviet countries) in the subject of & quot; Japanese script" the problem of debt must be added, demographic difficulties in developed countries and, which also happens often – manipulation of the exchange rate.
In general, the topic is wide, and the term & quot; Japanese script" anything is understood.
The second interesting feature is, what's the name of richard koo (author Books The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession) became associated with the idea of 'Japanese script'" in all its discussed manifestations. Along the way, how communication, and in the course of observing the communication of others, it was discovered that such an idea is attributed to Ku:
`` Japan has a balance sheet recession, the US is now in a balance sheet recession – which means, that in the USA everything will be the same as in Japan ''.
Simplified, but something like that. Therefore, the second thread of the discussion on the topic `` Japanese script" usually goes into evidence why Japan – this is not the USA. And the content of the term balance sheet recession is usually not specified..
The third interesting feature is, that Ku's book itself is absent in translation and free access in principle. Therefore, the vast majority of people formed their ideas about Ku's ideas based on one or two speeches., video which are online and one or two corresponding presentations. ( And ). As a result, there is a lot of discussion in the style of `` did not read, but I condemn '', and different perception of the content of terms, least.
Since I was lucky enough to read the book itself, I will try to lay out a summary of the main chapters of the book with scanned graphs (the quality is appropriate, Unfortunately).
I'll tell you right away, what – the book is, in principle, crude and acts rather as a training manual for that, what questions to ask, but not an answer to questions. I am very critical of Ku himself., many arguments seem weak to me, some however undeniable. But it's all so to speak – my IMHO and it will not be very useful to you (despite, that the retelling of chapters will be accompanied by some comments in brackets)).
Finally about, as I understand it term "balance sheet recession", which I often abuse. BR – this is a mechanism for reducing GDP through a reduction in aggregate demand caused by a decrease in demand for credit, which is caused by the need to normalize balances. That's all. And whether there will be a decrease in GDP in response depends on other factors, as well as unclear, what will happen to deflation / inflation. Economy – the thing is not one-factor, and NO – this is just one of the processes.
Everything, in the next post, a short retelling of the first chapters titled "The Japanese Recession".
