1 February PayPal released its fourth quarter financial report 2021 of the year. The company reported in line with expectations, but made a weak forecast for the current quarter and 2022 year. In the post-market, shares fell by 18%, to 145 $.
results
Indicators compared to the fourth quarter 2020 years and analyst forecasts:
- revenue - 6,92 billion dollars (+13%), forecast - 6,87 billion dollars;
- adjusted earnings per share — 1,11 $ (+4%), forecast - 1,12 $.
PayPal's revenue growth has been slowing for several quarters. One of the reasons is the transition of Ebay to its own payment system.. Marketplace bought by PayPal in 2002 year for making payments on the site. IN 2015 the companies split, and now they are gradually ending their cooperation.
According to PayPal, inflation, that keeps consumer spending down, and problems with the supply chain also negatively affected revenue.
The growth of the user base has also slowed down.. IN 2020 year the company added 72,7 million active users, in 2021 — 48,9 million. According to PayPal, in 2022 year the number of active users will increase by 15-20 million.
Number of active users and year-on-year dynamics, million people
| 4к2019 | 305 (+14%) |
| 1к2020 | 325 (+17%) |
| 2к2020 | 346 (+21%) |
| 3к2020 | 361 (+22%) |
| 4к2020 | 377 (+24%) |
| 1к2021 | 392 (+21%) |
| 2к2021 | 403 (+16%) |
| 3к2021 | 416 (+15%) |
| 4к2021 | 426 (+13%) |
305 (+14%)
Transaction volume and year-on-year dynamics, billion dollars
| 4к2019 | 199 (+22%) |
| 1к2020 | 191 (+18%) |
| 2к2020 | 222 (+29%) |
| 3к2020 | 247 (+38%) |
| 4к2020 | 277 (+39%) |
| 1к2021 | 285 (+50%) |
| 2к2021 | 311 (+40%) |
| 3к2021 | 310 (+26%) |
| 4к2021 | 340 (+23%) |
199 (+22%)
Forecast
According to PayPal, in the first quarter 2022 year, adjusted earnings per share will fall by 29%, to 0,87 $. This is less than analysts' expectations in 1,16 $.
IN 2020 And 2021 years, the company's total revenue grew by 21 And 18%. According to PayPal, in 2022 year sales will grow by 15-17%. This is also less than the experts' expectations., who counted on 18%.
Promotions
PayPal is one of the beneficiaries of the pandemic. Locked-in consumers, who received money from the states, began to spend less on concerts and other travel and buy more goods in online stores. Paypal benefited from this, whose shares since February 2020 year by February 2021 grew by about 150%.
And now PayPal's revenue growth has begun to slow down., and investors understood, that this company is overrated. So, over the past year, PayPal shares have fallen by 50% - up to the level of May 2020 of the year. As a result, over the past two years, PayPal shares have risen by only 27%. This is a lot, but for comparison: S&P 500 And Nasdaq over the same two years added 41 And 56%.
