Economists have a saying: if you see a bill lying on the floor at the station, it seems to you. This or some kind of joke, or divorce, because a real banknote cannot lie on the floor in such a place. Safer, surprisingly, walk past her.
So here, if you found a trading system on historical data, which is too good (from the annual profit series 100%, drawdown 10%), - just right to remember about that bill. Why would I lay it down for everyone to see?
Everything is too good, what i found, eventually or quickly broke down, or, even more often, it just seemed. Methods of illusion are different. Underestimating transaction costs, when almost all the profit was eaten up by slippage. Overestimating my speed - I just wouldn't have time to make those super deals in reality, not on tests.. Yes, just fitting on a period.
With a profit factor 1,5, which many, I know, despise (that is, one and a half rubles in profitable transactions, one ruble in unprofitable ones). With multi-month drawdowns. Come up with a truly dumb system, without fitting - you need to be able to, By the way.
But it is understandable, why such a system is alive for a long time. Because it is painful for most people to trade it. 'Cause the entrance and exit are blurry, no clear signal, you can climb through this window for a relatively long time, which means, liquidity problems will not cover you. That is, it is clear, why would this include hundreds of millions of rubles. And hundreds of millions of dollars, By the way, still no - and that explains, why such systems were not crushed by a single superfund. Funds do not need such a sandbox.
That is, this almost free bill, but still lying in the bushes (they don't see everything), in a mud puddle (not everyone is ready to get dirty), and not that big (not everyone needs it).
And if you come across hunting tales about magical profit factors and risk / return… I saw a fable about the profit factor 10 on the euro-dollar pair. It's not even infogypsy, this, I 'm afraid, the man is just out of his mind.
The paradoxical rule goes like this.
That's how that bill in the bushes.
