Question, as always, not in the figure itself, but in logic.
Since spring I have faith in 2200. If I'm not mistaken, in also. In my case, it only meant, that in the spring we see a one-year maximum, that's all. If the Index closes the year in the range 2000-2400, i will be satisfied.
The answer to the question can be rather in three dimensions.: 1) QE, rally, inflation, raw material, UB index 3000 (2600) 2) & quot; and there I will plant cucumbers & quot;, UB index 2200 (2400) 3) 'arrived" (and I said, what the indicators say about 1000)
Budget expenditures. In Bloomberg, in some places very interesting `` economic daily '', no matter how you pay for it. Not that, to something important, but useful interesting things often come across. Here, Really, I didn't get it, why subtract FFR, but the general idea is already clear.
Consequences of QE. As opposed to 'the markets are driven by the printing press', was so bulish on the American macro, that I almost did not believe in a return to slightly above trend growth. We urgently need to go see Rosenberg, to restore peace of mind.
Ukrrynok. Excuse me, for a vulgar phrase, but he really is meaningless and merciless. Especially the second. Can I have a little banter? From what was noticed the other day.
SMASH. Some guys woke up a couple of days ago, but there was a meeting 25 yet. Certainly, don't warn me I would oversleep the event itself, but the market is still, least 2 day gave the opportunity to painlessly enter / exit. Although, in general,, not my job, to deal with some sector.
“Let's consider ukravtoprom by EV / Capacity and compare with the Chinese”. Jetty, underestimated. You need to continue or everything immediately becomes clear? By the way, taking into account the plans for the introduction of new capacities, you can change all kinds of EV / Capacity in EM to increase the Capacity itself. Type, they are underestimated in EM, because, what's there capacity expansion. If the latter were not there, then EV / Capacity would not be 6, and, say 8. Well, and then in the same style.
And just a little bit more angry. Hmm, and where is the UX Index on 1000 points? Not, i don't mind, to draw conclusions looking at the graph. God be with them with astrocycles, eliots and other grails. Everyone has their own cockroaches (for example, I quite seriously believe in patterns, at that, that they can exist, exactly can, but do not exist). And actually, my summer look was like this: macro everything will be fine, technique – everything is just disgusting. Stop, where does it have to do with “UB index on 1000 points”? The fact, that the representatives of this movement seem to sincerely believed in doubledeep. But they had a lot of buy recommendations. All in all, skis, certainly, as always, nothing to do with it.
so not that, what a question, not that, so that they are concerned about the answer (boringly state) the nation-famous woodcutters of truth with a word on stone, in view of the worthiness of this occupation, товарищчи. сори, кто понял, тот понял, who is not, вот и замечательно.
from my side, I decided to look for the truth in numbers. for example, how many onaliteks we have? since you need to compare with something, you can compare the number of analysts with the capitalization of the index.
let's take the USA. capitalization S&P 500 approximately 11500 billion. $. in the segment & quot; securities, commodity contracts, investments" busy 796 000 human.
let's take Ukraine. capitalization of the UX Index is approximately 10,6 billion. $. how much should be employed in Ukrainian securities, commodity contracts, investments"? right: (10,6 billion * 796 thousand) / 11500 billion = 727 human. the truth is not by orders of magnitude different?)
but if you take in % from population, then in the USA this % commercials in 160 times more (0.2564% against 0.0016%). this effect is obtained from, what is our capitalization to GDP (and if you also take freefloat) you know where and how.
Yes, these are all just numbers and they don't say anything. problem, if she certainly is, lies in the psychological plane. In general, everything is somehow strange here. those who do something meaningful rarely feel it. and vice versa. well, we will have more Gini coefficient, than all sorts of official estimates.
in September S&P 500 grew up on 8,8%, UX Index decreased by 1,1%. my target was 2150, what would mean +8,6% for ukrrynka. well, my beloved 'there is no ukrrynka, there is a parody of a risky asset" подвела, which rather pleases. Yes, people are rather pessimistic, but that's definitely good. for example: "хм… but our market has no future .. ". him and 5 years ago there was. nothing, and you can live with a lack of prospects.
Yes, all kinds of forecasts and targets, it is definitely a finger touch on the ceiling. just intellectual gambling, unpretentious. when i'm interested in targets, then I am interested in the rationale. the number itself does not mean anything, ес-но.
already on the topic with the author's inherent directness, if you haven't seen, then here to a wonderful text on one of the main Ukrainian financial resources.
in your own words: Fed cut rates, that's why the stock went up, but when the rates reached zero the first time, the aces of the world street came up with hedge funds to make money not on stupidity, but on the blunt-fall and the blunt-side. only the smartest know, that the stock market will never rise again. so your whole management industry, this is sheer deception and uselessness.
Kyiv. 7 July. INTERFAX-UKRAINE – OJSC & quot; Beer and non-alcoholic plant & quot; Slavutich" (Zaporizhzhia), one of the largest breweries in Ukraine, plans to buy back 6,5% of their shares. According to the official announcement of the enterprise in the press, such a decision was made by its shareholders at the general meeting 25 June this year. The redemption of shares is carried out with 26 June to 26 July this year at a cost 2,1 UAH per share at par – 1 UAH / share.
it is pointless to show a graph in a non-linear form..
in general, I am not aware of the situation, but at first glance it looks very funny.
I really have my own fad, we need low inflation and the foreign exchange market, retirement money alone" can form the internal financial market for an extremely long time. what if 50% GDP will have to be hedged, this will give a boost to everything and everyone))
Great Divergence
many know, that at some point China stopped developing, Europe put pressure on and we got a familiar world to which we are already accustomed. have some ideas why and, what is weird, When did it happen. always thought, what happened this (the beginning has begun) when sailed my voyages. And then it all came together: izlation / tradition + demography + the development strategy of the Western world was more progress-oriented + The Western world had access to resources, which made it easier to overcome periods of low intensity progress without Malthusian consequences.
recently found out, what is the idea according to which, the break in the development of China and ZM occurred only after 1800 and the only reason – this is the lack of resources in China in sufficient quantities. when talking about the roots of ideas, they usually refer to here , which is undoubtedly provocative, but you need to be very straightforward in order not to see the formation of a new angle of view in the work, seeing a new dogma.
in general, this someone described the problem very well:
top September futures (minute), down below – underlying asset (UB Index, also a minute). many do not like, but how for less than a month of work in a full-fledged" mode it's ok, even good.
We emphasize again, that the Russian ruble is the strongest currency today, with a clear tendency to strengthen its market power. And if someone wants to bet on the strong – this is the Russian ruble. And his daughter – Ukrainian hryvnia.
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In this way, Ukraine – it is the umbilical cord of geopolitical interest, they are preparing to make large capitals here like the Russians, so did the Germans, Koreans, Chinese – this is a potentially high demand for the Ukrainian hryvnia.
