real estate

By the way about Chinese real estate

“It's only in big cities."
Sales of new homes from May 10 to May 16 fell 16 percent to 60,000 square meters from the week before, the lowest level for the same period since 2005, property consultant Shanghai UWin Real Estate Information Services Co., said in an e-mailed statement. (here)

and at 07-08m:
– it's only in a regional bubble (now without specifying the meaning of the term) spoke to the Fed,
– it is only a small sector of the economy, she said the tags,
– prices will go down and there will be more buyers, spoke from the TV.

“These are all cash transactions."
On April 16, the State Council rolled out a series of measures to curb the domestic housing market amid concerns over asset bubbles. These measures include a
* 30 percent down payment for first time buyers for houses larger than 90 square meters,
* 50 percent down payment and lifting mortgage interest rate for second home buyers.
* The government has also imposed a temporary ban on mortgage applications for third or above home buys and cross-city purchases. (here)

well, yes, there seems to be no Chinese CDO market (I don't know, if anything), but here, what the logic suggests:
and) ограничение "30 percent down payment for first time buyers" talks about, that after all this is not cash dials,
b) history shows, what when it comes to bubble (income only from the continued growth of the asset value) people will always find ways to finance. I don't know what's in China, may open spd (some), take a loan for it and off we go. human nature is always the same, and if there is an incentive to take real estate with leverage, she will be taken.

headlines

The point of view depends on the seating position ©Leonid Kuchma. Yes, here is such a surprise.
Media accents, always interested.

Record 92 thousands of houses became the property of US banks (BFM)

original news:
FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY DECREASES 9 PERCENT IN APRIL (RealtyTrac)

and:
“April was the first month in the history of our report with an annual decrease in U.S. foreclosure activity.

the seized property is at different stages.
so here's the thing. the number of new alerts has decreased. (first stage).
seizures increased (last stage, Almost).

not that, to be good or bad.
I'm just talking about the difference in titles.

Chinese Stelmach

argue in the style of 'substitute, brothers!".

Fan Gang, a former People’s Bank of China adviser, talked yesterday with Bloomberg’s Susan Li in Hong Kong about China’s measures to cool property prices and the nation’s currency policy. Fan said James Chanos is overly pessimistic about China’s property market because the hedge fund manager underestimates government efforts to avoid a bubble. Chanos said earlier this month that China is on a "treadmill to hell" because it’s hooked on property development for driving growth.

Argumentation: your idea, our dear James Chanos, presupposes, that the chinese are stupid, but it's not. The government is doing something. Bubble, it's also a social moment.

And no one doubted, what are not stupid, and what do they understand (I probably underestimate the degree of bureaucracy, etc.).
The trick is, that a bubble can and can be dropped without serious consequences for the entire exystem, but some sectors will suffer very badly. By the way, this is the rate of Chanos.

everything you wanted to know about the mortgage crisis

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in

we have a policy – make mortgage affordable. how are we going to this?
there are agencies that issue mortgage guarantees and buy mortgage papers. and this and that puts pressure on the cost of servicing mortgage debt, ie. reduces rates, making mortgages more affordable.

in the economy, something is rarely free. besides the built-in balancing idea, there is a banal truth about the absence of free lunches. eventually, policies aimed at increasing the availability of mortgages are a type of subsidy. by definition, granting a subsidy – loss of money. question of the future? what part of the losses from the mortgage crisis (within the industry) is the result of subsidies, and how much is the result of errors in management and organization.

subsidy – this is neither good nor bad. depends on the circumstances. I will not dare to assume the powers of a politician and talk about social Darwinism or active state liberalism. politics, this is a personal problem of politicians, and the psychological problem of those who are interested and sympathetic)

but the most unpleasant thing in this whole story, that the effect of the subsidy was seen as a positive effect of financial innovation and blah blah blah (who also undoubtedly had revenge to be, question in % contribution to the process). in the end, we got such a beautiful boom-bass cycle. rather, the transition from boom to bast turned out to be karsi.

__________________

on the difference between the liquidity crisis of mortgage instruments in the United States from that, what has been and will be in Ukraine.

Henk Paulson quotes in his book (Phil Swagel):
too many people ended up in the wrong houses, not in the wrong mortgage (a hint of that, what was originally bought, which was not affordable due to rising prices, which would allow over time to restructure a loan or sell a house with a broth).

so here's the thing. but in Ukraine it is quite the opposite. too many people ended up in the wrong mortgage and in very nasty apartments (after all, not even houses)).

the housing problem in a post-Soviet country is solved in one way – creating an adequate financial market. dot.

from unusable

periodically looking at z1, there is a desire to play with different numbers, good of which there are many.
if anything interesting comes into view, that's good. No, it is never superfluous to exercise in Excel.

воббще, I have a steady feeling, that in the 1970s (и после) much more happened, than we can see when looking at the numbers. новое, probably not so much in quantitative terms, how much in the qualitative and increasing complexity of the relationship. maybe now everything is much more different, again what it seems.

the same immobility.  
below are three graphs. first two – household liabilities in the form of mortgages and consumer loans.
on the third, the dynamics of assets in various real estate.

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