thoughts

Such a day.

Yesterday, I guess, it was such a day. Driving home, часов в 11 evenings – accident on the bridge, eight or nine cars. How did they manage to get so caught up in, with half-empty roads, on three lanes one way – unclear. On the porch to the house, look – trolleybuses are in a row – crash again. No one looked, sunspots, may be? Or tests of an unknown emitter? What a mass insanity? Well, the market behaved accordingly :)

PS Buy Euro and Gold, at such levels, certainly, madness, but upward movement is still possible, seems to be.

Belle Epoque

Have an opinion, that the story develops in a spiral, or cycles. Many paid attention, what 20-25 years, at the turn of the century, surprisingly similar. XVIII-XIX, XIX-XX, XX-XXI centuries. Rapid development of science, technicians, freethinking, art, technologies… Humanity rears its head proudly, believing in the nearness of a bright future, and then suddenly they sharply upset him. Titanic is sinking, and secular salons are replaced by dirty trenches. Не кажется ли вам, that we are living in another beautiful era? http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Прекрасная_эпоха
I would very much like to be mistaken…
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Trading experiment, final scene. (there will be no continuation).

If you remember, in July I started a trading experiment, with the rudiments of a primitive system. Поначалу, the results were very impressive, and then… Then the fun began. The system stopped working on such protracted movements, by currency pairs, which have been observed recently. Especially all sorts of “kangaroo”, Eurek also distinguished himself. In a word, a set of unprofitable positions has begun, and then reset them, as a result, saving what's left, and termination of further experiments. What follows from this. Any, even a primitive vehicle, for a short period of time, can show impressive results, capable of capturing the imagination. Ie. double / triple without too much trouble. And the temptation is great to increase the shoulders and profitability. And then the market changes. That, which is often given at seminars and trainings, really working things, with one “but”. They work in certain market conditions. For a couple of months, they can show excess profits, and go to zero in six months. Therefore, then, what at first glance seems like the Grail, таковым по сути, не является. Therefore, many disappointed in the guru. Visitors just got into the wrong market phase.
Lately there are a lot of groans in LJ traders, about laterality and cutting of deposits. Everybody's waiting for some way out. Like mana from heaven, as the coming of the Savior, expect either the arrival of Investors, and Big Money, or opposite the collapse and BP. Think, such timelessness can continue for a long time. Half a year, year, maybe a decade. Who cannot adapt to the market in time, will inevitably endure, и тем быстрее, the larger the shoulders and risks.

Came back.

About a month ago I have already reported on the results of trading, after returning to the old, slightly modified trading system (conventional reference point – 1 July), now I will add some more statistics.




Примечательно вот что. I didn't have time to trade in August, Market Analysis, tape reading. At first, due to the solid amount of work, and in the second half, at sea, I was just too lazy. used to, the terminal did not open for a couple of days. This did not affect the performance. At all. To my mind, met Williams saying (don't remember exactly, but close in meaning), that when we contemplate the charts for a long time, then we do intellectual masturbation… I'm ready to subscribe now.

Rapid price movements on a 5-minute interval can hypnotize, seems, what you need to enter / exit right now, otherwise it will be too late… In August I worked, mostly deferred. Sometimes I took my shoulders, но маленькие. Positions were held for up to several days, but intermediate profit taking (again deferred) has always been performed.
Satisfied at the end. It was possible to achieve the optimal ratio of profitability (set the bar for myself 10-20% per month), little risk, and minimal labor costs. I have repeatedly written about the comfort of the position volume – is he (volume) should not be excessive (for a manual intuitive trader naturally) – this important rule was also respected. At all, came to this conclusion – the volume should be like this, so you can not think about him, when you transfer overnight position and go to bed. And more conclusion. Many argue, you can live with trading / you can't. Think, you need to have an additional source of income, business, Work (although many dream of quitting the hated service, занимаясь спекуляциями). It's just normal diversification. Do not trade day / two / week, allow yourself such a luxury, otherwise, become a slave to the terminal for a short time.

deflation and guys

even the most pesimistic optimists like me six months ago would not have believed, that from everywhere will be heard about the risks of double dip and (knitting eyebrows menacingly)  `` now we are on a deflationary path ''. it was even harder to believe that, that the markets will react badly to data on the US real estate market, the same when the application fails, the market expects a "moderate decline in activity in the primary market."

even funnier to watch, like a tytnin threat (growth % rates) passed (replaced by fiscal tytnin), which means you need to bullshit. I still do not understand the logic of describing the situation, for example, the morgan who sang. pesimists, but we are waiting for the growth of rates (from which one ask?), and then we score on the net negative effect of stimuli in 2011 year and become optimists as monetary policy will be soft.

about time, oh manners!)
pity, that everything planned for the year was accomplished in six months. and even more pity, that European blind recklessness in decisions intervened in expectations, statements and lack of action. now try to understand, what's in prices, what is not. and how we will live in the fall.

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more heat:

He notes allegations that Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, has accused the eurozone of pushing Europe towards a 1930s-style slump – while Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, has allegedly said the crisis was caused by the US in the first place. “This weekend’s G20 meeting could be a fiery affair,” he says.

You've heard that too? by the way they say about a safe haven in Ukraine…

Of course it is sad…

… that yesterday's bulls were not punished in the Russian Federation. Give out at good prices. Up to 143K has fallen short of short – too rested. I will re-upload. Seems to be – double top will be drawn, so from 146000 repopulate – the most it will be, if there are no surprises in the evening, certainly.

What is your attitude towards numerous success coaches. In business, personal life, self-improvement? Not, all phrases, spoken in a cheerful voice, they are correct, in theory, and should motivate, and I am often ready to subscribe under every word, but it's all too rote, standardized, whether…
Once read a good comparison of a man to an amoeba. Hungry amoeba – moving, looking for food. Fed up – strives for peace. So is the man. Only now I noticed this feature. When everything seems to be fine, and you can finally relax and indulge in hedonism, some event happens, deducing an individual, or a society from a dormant state, requiring exertion, finding solutions. As if the universe has laid some kind of mechanism, not allowing you to relax, inducing constant movement, development… Do you still believe, that you will spend the rest of your life with a glass of wine under a palm tree in the company of a blonde and a brunette (or two macho), without thinking about anything? Or someone there will discover the mechanism of immortality, your brain separates from the body, and placed in “matrix”?

Thoughts on 14 May 2010

The previous month was the largest in terms of stock volume., but by the middle of this month exceeded the volume of that month Got used to a large position and because of this relaxed, old problems are back. Less began to think about deals What would make better days , enough to make 2 transactions at 50C For the last 2 made a bunch of mistakes, I don't trade tomorrow, I understand mistakes. I will write a post about what is wrong Now every day I will analyze the deals of the previous day and post them The season of company reports is over, the market abruptly subsided. I'm waiting for the connection of NASDAQ charts To stick to the rule ” If 3 deals in the negative – resting ” . I will write down the result on paper and how I see 3 negative I do not open new deals.

Bounce.

Let's bounce, certainly, maybe not so impressive, like Europeans with Americans, but some papers and software 10-15% will do right away, just look at ADRka. So what is next, no one knows. Spent the weekend at the dacha, and it was, actually don't give a damn about the euro, markets, forecasts, and other vanity. Lately I notice, that some are screaming loudly (probably it has always been like this), what do they know how to do, and how is it right, and what to do, and how to live, and others say, don't understand shit. And make outwardly compelling arguments, than cause approval and applause from some, and violent rejection of those in opposite positions, which is quite natural, for these others can provide evidence of the correctness of their own point of view, but which are unlikely to convince opponents. Obviously, nobody knows the truth, but admitting it is scary and uncomfortable, because how then to answer simple questions: “for what?”, “why?”, “why?”…

quotes

[info]true_flipper here:
Because there are practically no large players on the market with long planning horizons, what would be the garlic, and those who have them( insurance, pension funds, endowments) usually they don't do things like active management. As a result, prices are set on the margin by speculators., who, in principle, are only chasing the current trend. More and more money is managed by 'professionals', and this creates its own inefficiencies. So that clients carry money and a commission, the fund must perform, and constantly.

Thought.

I recently heard the phrase, the meaning of which was reduced to the following: It is impossible to tell “Yes” future, until you say “No” past. For sure, I've already read something like this somewhere, but then the thought caught on, wrote the expression on paper, read it several times. Really, how simple everything is. How can you hang new clothes in the closet?, if it is full of old? You can act decisively, and take the entire wardrobe out of the house at once. But this is a radical change, require emotional and material costs. Can be replaced gradually, changing one or two things. This path is consistent, not too expensive, but long. Or you can change nothing, keep walking in the old, worn out, but in such comfortable clothes.

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