FED

Мысли вслух

The more I read and see economic information about the US economy, especially ,I get shocked by that effect, which resulted from such a resonance of many negative factors in the states.
The very fact of, that the USA was overleveraged did not play a big role, this is precisely the resonance of all that negative besides overleverage, what caused this `` 10 point earthquake on the Richter scale ''. It is also economic, and socio-political reasons, who sent such a " super heavyweight & quot;.
And despite the fact that, that I am cautiously optimistic about the situation in the states, I am still afraid of the situation with unemployment and retail sales. Although the situation in the real estate market has stabilized, but that doesn't mean, that there will be a sharp demand. Where does it come from if people lose their jobs and employers are in no hurry to hire. Not to mention commercial real estate, which just collapsed. As long as I remember, then landlords had never lowered the cost of renting apartments before, and now it even came to this and there are still unfilled apartments.
What is happening now in the USA!?
It reminds me of the situation with refueling an airplane in the air.. Fed is pumping liquidity, it requires filigree work, like a tanker in the air, practically no money flows into the real sector, maybe it's a `` fuel tank with a hole ''!! So you can peck with your nose.
What if you don't refuel on time!?? What if the fuel is wrong?
Of course the market behaves like a player, which gives a good face for a bad game, that is, going up, as if everything is fine there.


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P.S This is me all to that, that I can revise my optimistic stanza on the situation in the USA and on the dollar, if I don't see real shifts and steps in directions, who will really improve the situation for those living in the United States.
Having lived so much in the states, I see the depth of change not just in the economic , but also on the mental level of people, what can change their thinking patterns.

US Senators Criticize Bernanke's Work

US Senators Criticize Bernanke's Job As Fed Chairman During Hearings, dedicated to his approval for a second term
At the hearing, dedicated to the appointment of Ben Bernanke for a second term, US Senators sorted out the history of his work as chairman of the Federal Reserve System in detail. Senate, probably, will approve Mr Bernanke for a second term, but for this he needs to type […]

Research на 01 December

Hello, my friends! The day was not the most beautiful – the market was trading in a chaotic and multidirectional manner. There were very few trending and net stocks. Day summary: Dow +0.34%, Nasdaq +0.29%, S&P-500 +0.38%.

I had no intraday trading: leaving from Friday the ILMN shorts from level 28.93, I fixed + 85 ¢ profit in the first minutes of trading, […]

Victor Niederhoffer (Victor Niederhoffer)

In April 2006 of the year Victor Niederhoffer (Victor Niederhoffer) appeared at an evening at New York's St. Regis, where about 300 America's leading fund managers. Walking under the gilded candelabra in a lavender blazer, he felt, that again rose to the top of success. 1980-90s. Niederhoffer has built himself a huge fortune and a reputation as one of the most prominent hedge fund managers in the United States.. But he was ruined by an excessive love of risk.: before the Asian financial crisis, he played for the rise in Thai stocks, and during the crisis - to increase the Standard index&Poor’s 500, using uncovered options on the index. When the markets crashed, Niederhoffer lost everything overnight - $ 130 million fund and almost all of his own savings. It seemed, life dealt him a crushing blow, however, he managed to overcome the path up the second time. Speaking to financiers, honoring him in St. Regis, Niederhoffer stressed, how highly he appreciates the “difficult and courageous” decision to reward him after, how it crashed once.

Fed liabilities

What is not enough money left with them.)))

                                                     from       Wednesday        Wednesday        Wednesday
Assets, liabilities, and capital                consolidation Nov 18, 2009     Nov 11, 2009     Nov 19, 2008
                         
Liabilities
Federal Reserve notes, net of F.R. Bank holdings                  879,357       -    1,523       +   50,740
Reverse repurchase agreements (13)                                 59,906       -      497       -   43,003
Deposits                                                 (0)    1,205,820       +   77,897       -    3,411       
  Depository institutions                                       1,109,269       +   65,034       +  478,777
  U.S. Treasury, general account                                   62,309       -      621       -    6,148
  U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account                   14,999                0       -  493,957
  Foreign official                                                  2,957       +    1,261       +    2,774
  Other                                                  (0)       16,285       +   12,222       +   15,142
Deferred availability cash items                       (279)        2,344       -      816       -      398
Other liabilities and accrued dividends (14)                       12,684       -      141       +    8,490

      Total liabilities                                (279)    2,160,111       +   74,921       +   12,417
                          
Capital accounts
Capital paid in                                                    25,362       +      189       +    4,989
Surplus                                                            21,431       +        8       +    4,265
Other capital accounts                                              5,034       -    1,353       +    1,581

      Total capital                                                51,828       -    1,155       +   10,836

Federal Reserve Assets

Doesn't feel like owning stock, really need to find out, what's in the portfolio of Maiden Lane ( This is a holding company created with the purchase of JP Morgan Bear Stearns). In this portfolio then, that, according to the Fed's definition, it is very risky to keep JP Morgan on the bail. Probably some kind of illiquid.

9. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks

Millions of dollars
                                                 Eliminations                          Change since
                                                     from       Wednesday        Wednesday        Wednesday
Assets, liabilities, and capital                consolidation Nov 18, 2009     Nov 11, 2009     Nov 19, 2008

Assets
Gold certificate account                                           11,037                0                0
Special drawing rights certificate account                          5,200                0       +    3,000
Coin                                                                2,037       -       23       +      389
Securities, repurchase agreements, term auction
      credit, and other loans                                   1,994,607       +   75,616       +  721,678
  Securities held outright (1)                                  1,776,618       +   74,852       +1,287,692
    U.S. Treasury securities                                      776,527       +        7       +  300,102       
      Bills (2)                                                    18,423                0                0
      Notes and bonds, nominal (2)                                707,649                0       +  297,158
      Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed (2)                       44,643                0       +    3,572
      Inflation compensation (3)                                    5,813       +        7       -      627
    Federal agency debt securities (2)                            153,049       +    3,376       +  140,548
    Mortgage-backed securities (4)                                847,042       +   71,469       +  847,042
  Repurchase agreements (5)                                             0                0       -   80,000    
  Term auction credit                                             109,456                0       -  305,846
  Other loans                                                     108,532       +      763       -  180,170
Net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper 
  Funding Facility LLC (6)                                         15,043       +      744       -  255,836
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC (7)                      26,349       +       10       -      570
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC (8)                   15,766       +       33       +   15,766
Net portfolio holdings of 
  Maiden Lane III LLC (9)                                          22,951       +       19       +   22,951
Net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC (10)                               231       +      231       +      231
Items in process of collection                         (279)          450       +       39       -      665
Bank premises                                                       2,228       +        2       +       50
Central bank liquidity swaps (11)                                  28,278       -      810       -  533,812
Other assets (12)                                                  87,764       -    2,093       +   50,074
     
      Total assets                                     (279)    2,211,939       +   73,766       +   23,253

Bernanke's promises.

BNE 20:15 Bernanke Says Lending Curbs, Job ‘Headwinds’ Restraining Growth
BNE 19:33 Argentina-Brazil Trade Spat Threatens Weaker Peso (Update2)
BNE 19:38 Oil Rises the Most in a Month on Weaker Dollar, Equity Gain
BLG 20:20 Seeking Alpha: Is China Going to Revalue the Yuan?
BNE 20:20 Dollar Pares Loss on Bernanke’s Pledge to Support Currency
CQT 20:20 Federal Reserve Board Of Governors Chairman Ben Bernanke.., spoon
BLG 20:20 + Business Insider: Bernanke: Fed will keep eye on sliding dollar
BNE 20:20 + Treasuries Rise as Bernanke Says ‘Headwinds’ Warrant Low Rates
CNN 20:19 + CNN: Bernanke: Weak recovery ahead
BNE 20:16 *DOLLAR PARES LOSSES VERSUS EURO ON BERNANKE’S CURRENCY STANCE
BNE 20:16 Taiwan, China Agree to Widen Access to Financial Markets
APW 20:15 Bernanke: Fed Will Keep Eye on Sliding Dollar
BNE 20:15 Bernanke Says Lending Curbs, Job ‘Headwinds’ Restraining Growth
BNE 20:15 *TREASURIES REMAIN HIGHER AFTER RELEASE OF BERNANKE REMARKS
APW 20:15 AP NewsAlert: Bernanke: Fed will keep eye on sliding dollar,
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS FED WILL MONITOR DOLLAR `CLOSELY’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS INFLATION LIKELY TO REMAIN SUBDUED FOR SOME TIME
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS `LONGER-RUN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE STABLE’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS INFLATION OUTLOOK FACES `NUMBER OF CROSSCURRENTS’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS FED POLICY WILL HELP ENSURE `DOLLAR IS STRONG’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LOAN QUALITY DETERIORATED
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS BANKS `ESPECIALLY CONSERVATIVE’ IN TAKING ON RISK
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS DEMAND FOR CREDIT HAS `FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS `SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC CHALLENGES REMAIN’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE: BANKS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TERMS FOR MOST CREDIT TYPES
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE: MANY PARTS OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM IMPROVED SUBSTANTIALLY
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS `MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH TO CONTINUE NEXT YEAR’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE: ECONOMY’S EVOLUTION IN 2010 AND BEYOND `LESS CERTAIN’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SEES `HEADWINDS,’ SAYS `FUTURE SETBACKS ARE POSSIBLE’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS `UNEMPLOYMENT MUCH TOO HIGH’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE SAYS CREDIT `CONSTRAINED,’ ECONOMIC ACTIVITY `WEAK’
BNE 20:15 *BERNANKE COMMENTING ON ECONOMY, POLICY IN NEW YORK SPEECH

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