How long should this go on now

BUSINESS CYCLE
REFERENCE DATES		 DURATION IN MONTHS
Peak Trough Contraction Expansion Cycle
Quarterly dates
are in parentheses		 Peak
to
Trough		 Previous trough
to
this peak		 Trough from
Previous
Trough		 Peak from
Previous
Peak
June 1857(II)
October 1860(III)
April 1865(I)
June 1869(II)
October 1873(III)

March 1882(I)
March 1887(II)
July 1890(III)
January 1893(I)
December 1895(IV)

June 1899(III)
September 1902(IV)
May 1907(II)
January 1910(I)
January 1913(I)

August 1918(III)
January 1920(I)
May 1923(II)
October 1926(III)
August 1929(III)

May 1937(II)
February 1945(I)
November 1948(IV)
July 1953(II)
August 1957(III)

April 1960(II)
December 1969(IV)
November 1973(IV)
January 1980(I)
July 1981(III)

July 1990(III)
March 2001(I)
December 2007 (IV)

 December 1854 (IV)
December 1858 (IV)
June 1861 (III)
December 1867 (I)
December 1870 (IV)
March 1879 (I)

May 1885 (II)
April 1888 (I)
May 1891 (II)
June 1894 (II)
June 1897 (II)

December 1900 (IV)
August 1904 (III)
June 1908 (II)
January 1912 (IV)
December 1914 (IV)

March 1919 (I)
July 1921 (III)
July 1924 (III)
November 1927 (IV)
March 1933 (I)

June 1938 (II)
October 1945 (IV)
October 1949 (IV)
May 1954 (II)
April 1958 (II)

February 1961 (I)
November 1970 (IV)
March 1975 (I)
July 1980 (III)
November 1982 (IV)

March 1991(I)
November 2001 (IV)

 —
18
8
32
18
65

38
13
10
17
18

18
23
13
24
23

7
18
14
13
43

13
8
11
10
8

10
11
16
6
16

8
8

—
30
22
46
18
34

36
22
27
20
18

24
21
33
19
12

44
10
22
27
21

50
80
37
45
39

24
106
36
58
12

92
120
73

 —
48
30
78
36
99

74
35
37
37
36

42
44
46
43
35

51
28
36
40
64

63
88
48
55
47

34
117
52
64
28

100
128

—
—
40
54
50
52

101
60
40
30
35

42
39
56
32
36

67
17
40
41
34

93
93
45
56
49

32
116
47
74
18

108
128
81
Average, all cycles:
1854-2001 (32 cycles)
1854-1919 (16 cycles)
1919-1945 (6 cycles)
1945-2001 (10 cycles)		 17
22
18
10		 38
27
35
57		 55
48
53
67		 56*
49**
53
67
* 31 cycles
** 15 cycles
  Notes of a Newcomer to RTS Index Futures. Part 1. Backpack collection.
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