as always, quite by accident I stumbled upon schedule, under which there were several thoughts.
do not like 2 pieces:
1) Asian Central Banks stubbornly look at other Central Banks, no one in asia wants to raise rates before, how the FED will do it (why is that – I don't know, but this is how all investment houses have been writing since autumn 09 of the year. No, of course there is sound logic in this, but just to be so fanatical ..). if rate hikes in the developed world are pushed back a couple of quarters (which, by the way, is also not so obvious), then the rate hike in Asia may be postponed. for the sake of mercy, it should be noted, that besides directly rates, there are many ways to tighten monetary / fiscal policy.
2) there may be problems with counting it and it is underestimated. for example, we take the loading of production facilities in China and consider, that she should be at least 80%. maybe, in fact, there's only 30-40 – this is already the norm, because some of them are a) just go to junk, b) set up in advance. eventually, the real gap is already much higher. (in developed economies vice versa, there is a risk of overestimating the GDP gap).
