In fact, the entire graphic descriptive technical analysis in the form, which is presented in popular scientific trading books, this is sheer deception.
And Fibonacci grids and extensions are a deception to the extent. It is not so noticeable on small timeframes.. It is also difficult to detect when the expansion is building up.. But when the grids are built on long timeframes and down, then it is very easy to detect.
Вот недельный schedule фьючерса на Природный Газ. If we build a Fibbonacci grid, then the next projection and price target on the extension 161,8% will be equal to minus 0.126. That is, a discerning tech analyst will discover a sensational detail., consisting in the fact that next year the gas price will become negative and gas suppliers will pay extra to consumers for agreeing to use their gas.
By the way, the same will happen if instead of Fibbonacci extensions use, for example, defining a target in ATRs or projections of breakouts, as they teach in books, like if it punched a triangle, then the target is calculated from the breakout point by the width of the triangle. Or some other figure. The same is with noughts and crosses built by the size of the boxes in absolute units., as well as projections of Elliott waves. And with the rest of the popular methods of projection of prices in absolute units. Even graphs are not recommended to be viewed with a linear scale along the Y axis., as visual information is distorted, especially with a wide range of prices on long timeframes.
Так что же делать? It's that simple. Using the above graph as an example — price with marks 5.031 dropped to 1.844 — that is in 2.728 once. So,, from the mark 1.844, if it decreases by the same amount in 2.728 once, she will reach 0.675. This will correspond to the CORRECT fibbonacci projection in 200%. A CORRECT projection 161.8% I propose to calculate by ourselves. :)
Eventually, surprisingly, we invented wheel interest. Many traders do not recognize interest, they say that you can't cook porridge out of them and you can't put it in your pocket.
