ПРОНЬКО: 21 hour and 7 minutes in the Russian capital, good evening again, at the microphone Yuri Pronko, on the radio “Finam FM” daily program “Dry residue”.
Today we have an interesting guest - I judge from the program forum “Dry residue”, you have a lot of questions for him. Really, extraordinary person! But let me keep a little secret, just for a couple of minutes, and let's, We will see, how, Firstly, ended trading in Russia, let's see, what is happening on world sites. Well, that one, who will visit the website www.finam.fm, thats a secret, in fact, will reveal. Firstly, will also see the webcast on our website, you can not only listen to us, but also see, well, you will find out, who is our guest today. But this is such an intrigue for literally one minute..
(Dry residue)
Today trading opened with a decline in indices, but in the morning “by a bull” managed to seize the initiative for a short time and bring the market to a plus. Published data on PMI and retail sales in the euro area did not affect investor sentiment. In the afternoon, there was a correction, but macro statistics from the USA on orders in the manufacturing industry and durable goods turned out to be better than expected and returned buyers to the sites. The growth of oil quotes by more than one and a half percent helped to keep the Russian stock market in the positive zone.
At the end of the day, the MICEX index added 0,23%, RTS index closed in positive territory on 0,21%. At the end of the day in the leaders of growth “Uralkali”, +5,77%, due to the increase in the weight of this security in the MSCI index, as well as promotions “Raspadskaya”, +5,74%, against the backdrop of news about the payment of generous dividends for the first half of the year. Energy sector securities were in good demand. So, “IDGC Holding” - a plus 6,12%, “FSK UES” - a plus 2,98%, “OKK-4” - a plus 2,08%. The outsiders of the day are stocks “VTB”, -2,12%, who continue to win back bad acquisitions “Bank of Moscow”.
Interview in the text below
ПРОНЬКО: American indices are literally in place: zero on Dow Jones and correction only on 0,03% on S&P. Such standing, which, certainly, may change in the next second, minute and so on. But we see growth in the oil market: Brent crude oil - 114,18, Light – 97,17. For a troy ounce of gold they give 1511 Dollars, growth is almost 2%. And the ratio of the two leading world currencies, euro to dollar, is 1,447, almost half a percent the European is weakening in relation to the American.
This is the picture observed on world sites.. This “Dry residue”, “Finam FM“... And now attention! My guest today and your interlocutor, dear listeners “Finam FM“, once said: “99% people live their lives useless and wasted, don't be one of them”. He is professional trader, considered one of the most successful and famous. And not only in the post-Soviet space, but also in the United States. He is in 1993 year left for America, having behind only a technical school and an institute of food industry.
The topic of today's program sounds like this: “From taxi driver to efficient trader. Path, which is real to pass!”. Alexander Gerchik, professional trader - guest “dry residue”… Alexander, Good evening.
MUSTARD: Kind.
ПРОНЬКО: Actually a technical school, food industry institute?
MUSTARD: Institute, even incomplete higher education. When I came from the army, my father said, what, basically, all normal Jewish children should get a higher education ...
ПРОНЬКО: And yet your dad was absolutely right!
MUSTARD: He was right, but, Unfortunately, I was not enough. I still graduated from a good technical school, I had one four there, and I had five exams instead, since I was walking along the profile, pass only two. I arrived at the Institute of Food Industry in Odessa. My sister was waiting for me on the street, during 45 minutes I passed math and in 45 passed physics minutes. I was enrolled and ... the second time I was in this institute was never again. Father told me about, that it was necessary to transfer to correspondence, but it was not mine. I, as the Jews say, started doing a little business, made some money. Came 1993 year, and I left for America.
Naturally, when you come to the United States, you, certainly, nobody needs…
ПРОНЬКО: It was New York?
MUSTARD: It was New York, Yes, lucky right away. When you come to America - well, who needs you?
ПРОНЬКО: Only to myself, Yes!
MUSTARD: You know, how Willie Tokarev sang at one time, that they came to us “vacuum cleaners”, and everyone only wants money. And what was there to do? Everything, what could i do, basically, it's driving. I had no command of English. I got a special license and went to work as a taxi. What I did next? I had some money from Odessa, literally 2,5-3 thousands of dollars, I bought myself a car and at night I just drove and studied the roads.
ПРОНЬКО: Sasha, that is, at that moment stock market was something distant and incomprehensible?
MUSTARD: What can be the stock market in the head of a boy from Odessa in his 22 of the year? No stock market.
ПРОНЬКО: And you worked as a taxi driver.
MUSTARD: I really had no idea - I have zero, absolute zero was. New York taxi drivers only work in Manhattan. To put it simply - from “null” streets to its nineties and eleven blocks perpendicular. That is, the city is very small, very simple…
ПРОНЬКО: I would say this area is small.
MUSTARD: Yes, this area is not big, and in all other areas, Over there, Brooklyn, Queens, you can really get confused, there is a street on the street. It was very easy to work in Manhattan, that is, everything goes perpendicular there, but in the beginning it's still hard. But Americans do have one colossal plus.: they speak very slowly and calmly. When you are in a taxi, you have a special card, on which, certainly, written “Alexander Gerchik”. It is not written there “John Smith”, and they understand, that the guy is an immigrant. All the more so then, in the late eighties and somewhere until the mid nineties, taxi drivers were mostly Russians. Then, somewhere with 1998 of the year, let's go Pakistanis, Indians, they work a lot there.
ПРОНЬКО: There are a lot of Indians.
MUSTARD: Hindus are overwhelming, and when a Hindu gets into a taxi and starts to say something, you do not understand anything.
Surprisingly, I earned very decent money at that time. That is, a taxi could earn somewhere on the order of a thousand dollars a week.. It's somewhere 4000 dollars a month in pure money.
ПРОНЬКО: Again, for a boy from Odessa, who just arrived ...
MUSTARD: Then, if you take by the standard, It was 50 thousand dollars a year. Then, that is in 1993 year, a good college graduate earned 30 thousand dollars a year. If you dropped out of business school, for example, and you had a lawyer, then you could count thousands on 40-42. If you are, naturally, did not graduate from the top of his class. If you finished, Over there, top-5, you could go to the salary 70-80 thousand.
Work, naturally, convict. In what respect? The work is very hard, you can work in different ways. For example, in a day: you 20 you drive hours, you rest at home for a day, then again. Or do you take the car for 12 shift hours. I took for a day, because it was easier that way: you at least saw a white light. But 20 hours in the car - what are the main problems?.. I understand, that our radio listeners are not very interested in this, but in short now ...
ПРОНЬКО: This is all interesting! Therefore we will trace that, how from a taxi driver you became a trader.
MUSTARD: The most basic problems are, Firstly, really nowhere to go to pee. Because the police arrive right there ...
ПРОНЬКО: And this is a physiological human need.
MUSTARD: Absolutely right. The penalty for double parking was then 60-70 dollars or just could take the car away. I understand, that such things are not discussed on the radio - but I had to travel with a jar of “McDonalds”, literally.
ПРОНЬКО: Well, what to do?!.. Attention! This is what one of the most successful traders says, who talks to you openly.
I, the only thing, Right away, Alexander, sorry, what's interrupting, let me remind you the means of communication ... you do not wait for the end of the program, how do you traditionally do it - call 65-10-99-6 (Moscow code - 495), this is the multichannel phone number, and write (letters - a cart and a small cart) at www.finam.fm… Do you understand, I'm not just somehow flattering my guest today, but he is really a legend! What can i do about it?
Everything, there will be no more pathos. Alexander, so, what is next?
MUSTARD: It happened purely by accident.. That is, this is not some kind of fantastic story., it's really, actually happened. The fact, that many people do not believe in some things. This is all elementary checked., eat, for example, special pages, Over there, where everything about the broker is written, and you can come in, look, in which month the person got the license. This is not the Soviet Union, where did you come from, quoth, Over there, what am I, pier, super duper duper, like Mavrodi, and drove trucks of money people invest. It won't work in America.
ПРОНЬКО: well, so this is how a boy from Odessa became a taxi driver and ...
MUSTARD: I went to English evening school, I just learned English myself, Free.
ПРОНЬКО: It's necessary.
MUSTARD: That is, in America there is such a big plus, Americans are great in this regard: if you are an immigrant, and you have already joined the society, they try to do so, so that you join this society until the end. And there were evening parties courses, three to four times a week, when such a woman comes, professional teacher, and in the evening she deals with immigrants for free. I'll tell you honestly: horse patience. This is how I fiddled with my students? Where did I learn? Horse patience. Free, not a penny of money, and people of different ages come, from 20 year old boy to 90 year old grandmother, who lives in Brighton and also wants ...
ПРОНЬКО: ... Join.
MUSTARD: Yes. When my father came to America, he said: “I want at least 20 words to know, for me to come in and, Sorry, I didn't get shit somewhere and I would be ashamed”.
ПРОНЬКО: Yes. Although it is possible to live for a long time in this area, reading Russian “Jewish world”, “The newspaper”, “New Russian word” etc.
MUSTARD: At the end I will tell you a joke ... Or you can tell it right away?
ПРОНЬКО: Tell me.
MUSTARD: This is when two Jews stand in Brighton and talk to each other. One says to another: “Izya, need to learn English”. He answers: “Why do we need English? We live in Brighton, everything is in Russian here, look at it: here is the announcement, there is an ad ...” The first one says: “Izya, if a, God forbid, English will be spoken with us, we will disgrace ourselves”. Suddenly a Cadillac pulls up, a window opens, the tanned American pokes his head out and starts asking something in English. They spread their hands and say: “Don’t speak English”. The American then leaves. And one first Jew to the second: “I told you? I need to learn English” Second: “Listen, so he knows English - and what, it helped him?”
ПРОНЬКО: This is Alexander Gerchik today at “Dry residue”… Alexander, I insist on my question: how did you come from taxi driver to the stock market?
MUSTARD: Yet again, in our life, unfortunately or fortunately, all accident, his majesty case. It turned out, that all the work is practically, how I started talking at the beginning, took place in Manhattan. Sooner or later you come to Wall Street anyway, you see it all. And just elementary, when you see it all, you see huge columns ...
ПРОНЬКО: This bull, which is there ...
MUSTARD: Bycharu, Yes. And everyone should definitely rub his balls for him, this is a standard situation. Especially among Asians. It is normal for Asians to rub eggs.. We have there Lesha Maitrade when he came, he kicked him. Won “bulls”, figuratively.
ПРОНЬКО: Set a new trend.
MUSTARD: Yes. So here, and constantly, you constantly pass: what it is? You look - a bunch of people are standing there. It's so beautiful in the morning, they all come to work, then they have a mandatory smoke break, and they take coffee in the same place. Just purely theoretically interesting. I didn't have the Internet then. And it turned out purely by accident. There was a large brokerage firm on the 57th at one time, where commodity futures were traded. I, it happened, gave a ride to the same grandfather three or four times ... That's how big the city is: 17 millions of people, 11 thousands of official taxis. And you hit the same person three or four times. Whatever you want to call it: this is destiny, his majesty case and so on. And I gave him a lift, and he told me all the time: “What are you doing here?!”
ПРОНЬКО: He was a Jew?
MUSTARD: Yes, and he was a religious Jew, with sideways, and the cap was. And here it is., He sees: such a normal Jewish boy ... Over the years I have become like a Jew, but before I was not like a Jew. well, ordinary young guy.
ПРОНЬКО: You can directly see, how similar is mister Gerchik to a Jew, via webcast ... By the way, i will explain, someone got lost there with our webcast: where is the rubricator “Video”, go there and see my today's guest Alexander Gerchik.
MUSTARD: Yes, i want to state, that I have lost seven kilograms, because usually, when they watch my courses, everyone starts talking, what oh, Gerchik recovered, Gerchik lost weight. Now they will speak, that Gerchik has lost weight. Good or bad - I don't know, but i feel good.
ПРОНЬКО: But back to Grandpa Hasid.
MUSTARD: He told me three or four times: “What are you doing here?!” I answered: “What should I do?” And purely by chance it turned out, that my relatives had a woman they knew, employed by the company, former member of the New York Stock Exchange. And I asked about, well, what it is, what is it eaten with. She says: “well, come to the firm, look”. I came, then the company was called “Investor Associates”. A very large firm was. I come ... A, you know, for boy, who came from nowhere, you walk in - there is just a huge floor, and there are hundreds of people sitting there, hundreds, Brokers!
ПРОНЬКО: Makes an impression.
MUSTARD: Not just an impression, do you understand, what are you before, well, did not live. It's like now to go to “Troika Dialog”. Even after, what i saw in america, it's impressive there. And then it was the same: you come in - huge screens for those times, TVs are, and people do not understand what they are talking about at all. I walked in - I'm in a state of shock. She says: “If you want, you can be a broker's assistant”. It was 1995 year. “Salary per week - 225 Dollars, but you have ...”
ПРОНЬКО: Thereby, that they earned a thousand on a taxi.
MUSTARD: Yes. “... But you have a future”. I was already married by this time, And, naturally, such things should be discussed with my wife. God bless, that I have a very adequate wife, by concepts, and she says: “Sasha, well, need to try”. And my wife worked at that time, and I, naturally, on Saturday-Sunday I worked part-time by taxi for two days, but already took a smaller shift - and I started. English, certainly, not enough, but, anyway, was interesting. I worked from morning till night. I came the very first, I read some books, I pulled up English very quickly, I communicated with clients.
What I really liked? Imagine, a boy with a heavy Russian accent is calling ... I have been in America for two years. Well, yes, I had good English, but the accent is very heavy. Only over the years can it be corrected.
ПРОНЬКО: And that, to my mind, does not pass.
MUSTARD: There is even such an opinion in America, what if you are up 16 years came to America, you can still remove the accent. If not, then it's very hard.
What was I doing? In a simple way - I qualified an investor: I called, asked, How many years, how much money does he have in the market, does he want to invest. If yes - I wrote it down, subscribed, then gave it to my broker, then the broker called and offered services. This is also very hard work.. Why? If you qualified a person well, it's practically on 70-75% there was already an investor. That is, it is already very easy for a broker to: he already has a completely different influence, he's calling, already a different voice, everything is different and ...
ПРОНЬКО: But this first conviction is carried out by the broker's assistant..
MUSTARD: This is the hardest, this is what the broker's assistant does, Yes. And I did on average 700-800 calls per day.
ПРОНЬКО: How many?!
MUSTARD: Average - 700-800. It was our responsibility. Then they introduced the program, which showed, how many, then they entered the computer, that is, immediately typed, there are such pieces of paper, and you start writing. I have a day out 700 people went out 11-12 such qualified people, out of which, surprisingly, our broker closed the most accounts: somewhere from 11 human she is stable 4-5. I spent a lot of time with clients, I asked, I was talking. And then, you know, so glad! He, Over there, He speaks, what plants flowers - and you start asking: “What flowers do you like? What do you like to do?” - and everything else.
ПРОНЬКО: Entering orbit!
MUSTARD: Absolutely right. And than, when the broker calls, he starts wrong, what is asking you for money, because it immediately scares, and he calls you and asks: “Mr jones, how are you doing? How are your flowers?” - and the person becomes comfortable with you.
And I began to work there, and then I went to take a license. It really was a nightmare! I have licensed three times, passed only the third time. It was very hard. Moreover, the first two times I did not even understand, how hard is it, I didn't have enough English. But my entire book was completely covered with translation. That is, you could then give it to any Russian-speaking person., and he would have figured it out. Moreover, when the second time I went to take, Over there 100% I was deceived, because every time you took a license, and you had to pay money.
ПРОНЬКО: Sasha, I think, do you remember your first trade?
MUSTARD: Yes, I remember all the transactions. I had stock “MEMORY”. “MEMORY” Is a financial company, credit card…
ПРОНЬКО: The money was either their own or the client's?
MUSTARD: Not, first, when I later started working as a broker, - I worked as a broker in a brokerage firm for two years - we did all transactions there with client money. That is, we called the client, offered an idea ... First of all, I remember those deals, on which I lost. As my grandmother used to say, does not have me twice in the same place.
ПРОНЬКО: But that doesn't happen, so as not to lose.
MUSTARD: It can not be.
ПРОНЬКО: Yes.
MUSTARD: I want to say one thing to all our radio listeners: any loss, if she is controlled, it is embedded in the results of any trader. Many traders kill themselves. They start to spread rot on themselves, they endure their brains - this is absolutely wrong. Minus plus, minus-plus is absolutely normal. The main thing is the end result. You can't do perfect.
Yes, I had a period, for example, with 1999 year on 2003 year, where in four years I had only nine unprofitable days. Honestly, ask a question: “How did you do it?” Do not know, I came to work every day, I did it as a job.
So here, when I started working for the company, I have already started making money, earned some first money, because the stock rallied very strongly, doubled, and we had the right to receive five percent of the profits then. That is, depending on whether, how much was sold. One day then, I remember, I got, Over there, 46 or 47 one thousand dollars.
ПРОНЬКО: The wings have grown?
MUSTARD: Certainly. I have one big plus: I've never had a roof. Never in my life! I come to work every day, and it doesn't matter, what happened yesterday, today is a new day, this is my job. Once you start to feel like an elusive avenger, this avenger makes you very perceptible.
So that, i worked there, got a lot, I studied with the best traders in America, spent a lot of time with clients. And I thought one thing: if we do it for clients, why can't you do this for yourself? And so I went to work for a firm. I then had a certain amount of money, that I was ready to lose, It was 400 Dollars. And I said to myself: “This amount is this amount, which I will lose”. And all. Then I came to the owner ... I will also tell you, that all this time I didn’t make money, that is, I still continued to take a taxi for the weekend.
ПРОНЬКО: I suggest screwing up now, as usual I say in such situations, our listeners. 65-10-99-6 (Moscow code - 495), www.finam.fm is a means of communication. Alexander Gerchik, program “Dry residue”, radio station “Finam FM“. I will now combine my questions with those of the listeners., because there are a lot of them.
Dmitry asks: “Why did you decide to return to Russia?”
MUSTARD: The fact, that i have a project, which I really would like to implement here, which is very difficult to implement in America. This project is, what is this, basically, trade in all global markets. This, Firstly, time is very convenient, and, Secondly, my team members are here: these are students, which I taught. That's what it is, basically, main idea. IN 2008 year I sold the main share of my company, I have options left, and I just thought, why not.
That is, I cannot say, what, like many, i came back, as a repatriate, for a new life. Let's say this: it is very difficult to find ambitious guys in America, which are in Russia. There is a young guy, who needs to live, he will not go to work for the future. That is, there you still need a minimum salary., insurance and everything else. For example, I have guys here, who help me for free or for very little money. And a good programmer in America will cost 150 thousand. To fulfill your dream there, for example, build this so called fund, i have to spend millions of dollars, and that is unknown, whether or not that idea is stolen, which I will give.
ПРОНЬКО: In Russia, many people think, that the stock market is a casino.
MUSTARD: Not, this is absolutely not true.
ПРОНЬКО: Well done! I finally found my supporter in your face.
MUSTARD: This is absolutely not true, it has nothing to do with the casino.
ПРОНЬКО: Sasha, how can you convince people?
MUSTARD: No way. Only time can convince a person.
ПРОНЬКО: But like 20 years have passed since that event.
MUSTARD: Yes no, what 20 years? Don't you forget, the biggest problem in this country is, that somewhere with 1991 too much has changed over the years. First, in 1991 year, some money changed, then in 1998 year there was a crisis, then the two thousandth ... And people are just already afraid. For them, the market is a deception., regular “divorce”.
ПРОНЬКО: Yes, the state is a divorce, in fact! Not a market, and the state is our main “breeder” в России!
MUSTARD: People just don't understand, that you can really make money from stocks. But there is one thing: time has to be invested, strength and everything else. Need to study, gotta watch ... I know people, who really want it, who sit and do this from morning to evening.
ПРОНЬКО: Now we will go at the pace of the Viennese waltz. Oleg asks: “Can you tell, how do you get out of unprofitable situations psychologically, what methods does this happen? Thanks to”.
MUSTARD: The question is very good, skilled.
ПРОНЬКО: Sasha, you will feel, our audience is so high-quality.
MUSTARD: When I started my last courses, I completely changed the strategy, completely replaced courses for one simple reason. I said, that a trader must have an algorithm for each of his actions. There should be an algorithm for a working day, for working hours, to the entry point, to the exit point, on it, how to hold. Only then will you be able to cope with the psychological factor.. For one simple reason ... Hundreds of, and even thousands of books about psychology: how to deal with psychology, how to defeat yourself, how to overcome the psychological factor. The answer is one. You know, how?.. No way.
It's very hard to fight with yourself. After all, two people live inside us: one says, what to buy, the second advises to stop - but the first always wins. Advice one: algorithm for any action. It's like the pilots. Why pilots, they, who are wrong, make mistakes? Because they don't follow the algorithm.
You know, I made a memo in our office. I call her - a memo for morons.
ПРОНЬКО: A good start, Yes.
MUSTARD: Yes, реально. And it says in the first line - working day, for example, starts at 14:00, the first three hours I look at such and such a number of shares, and not just walking from corner to corner. Farther: not just looking, what do I choose? I choose such and such stocks, these are my candidates. The first part is over. The second part is a working day: how i behave? If the working day is, i do this and so on.
This is just an ordinary memo. As a pilot. How did I know about this? I began to look at professions, where people don't make mistakes. This is surgeons. Why does the surgeon not cut appendicitis through the ass? What should he do there?!
ПРОНЬКО: Really.
MUSTARD: Correct.
ПРОНЬКО: Yes.
MUSTARD: Why he, for example, tonsils do not operate through another place, Sorry? For one simple reason. In America it is called Standard Operating Procedures. (SOP). You come to work, and they tell you specifically, that you pick up the phone like that, not otherwise. And the problem with people is, that they don't do it all, and they have a psychological factor: “Ouch, I'm sitting in a position - what can I do?” Yes, elementary!
You know, there is a very good one anecdote, when a person comes to the doctor and says: “Doctor, Do you know, I have no sense of smell, I do not feel anything”. Doctor: “No problem - test tube # 13”. He comes, sniffed and says: “Ouch, same shit!” Doctor: “You see, you already have a sense of smell”.
ПРОНЬКО: This is Alexander Gerchik ...
MUSTARD: Listen further!.. He comes a second time and says: “You know, I don't taste”. “Sure, not a problem! Test tube No. 13”. He tried again and said: “Yes this is shit!” Then the person comes to the doctor for the third time and complains: “You know, I have something wrong with my memory”. Doctor again: “Test tube No. 13”. “Why, there's shit there!” “You see, to you and the memory has returned”.
People don't have an ordinary piece of paper, which you just need to follow.
ПРОНЬКО: That is, everything is so complex - it is elementary simple.
MUSTARD: Always simple. Only those people make money in trading, which reduce trading to simplicity. Just a piece of paper.
ПРОНЬКО: Good evening, you are on air.
LISTENER: Good evening, my name is Dmitry. Somewhat provocative, I guess, I would like to ask your distinguished guest a question.
Now this situation is developing in Russia., that the most progressive and successful people still somehow tend to leave the country, Unfortunately. And here is your guest, I'm listening to him attentively, is he, undoubtedly, progressive too, talented person, ventured to go back, with my business, with your money, with your ideas. And I wanted to ask him such a political question. Have an opinion, that Russia has a cloudless political future. If your guest shares this opinion, then with whom he connects him all the same - with the prime minister or with the president?
ПРОНЬКО: Yes, thanks. I think, now there will be an Odessa answer.
MUSTARD: Not, the answer will be normal. This is a very good question., absolutely unprovocative, this is normal.
You know, Fortunately, my activity has nothing to do with politics. And I understand people very well sometimes, who make money and leave. For one simple reason: everyone is looking for peace. But there are so many people, for example, the same Tinkov: they say, what, pier, why is he writing Books, conducts lectures and all that? Man took place, he does it, it all depends on the person. Yes, the state has certain problems, Yes, sometimes put a spoke in the wheel, Yes, corruption is everywhere! If people think, that America is a country without corruption, then they are wrong. I just know, what, for example, in construction universities there is a certain amount, which is laid on, to ... It's not called a bribe - it's called greening, for example, adjacent plot.
ПРОНЬКО: This is called patronage and charity..
MUSTARD: Yes, it's beautifully called. But it's the same.
ПРОНЬКО: Fund accounts are known, where to send it.
MUSTARD: That's why, answering Dmitry's question, Tell, that the political situation in Russia is absolutely favorable and normal for me. Trying to develop markets now. This cannot be compared with Kazakhstan or Ukraine., where just, for example, cancel the auction and so on. In Russia, for my sphere, the structure is very favorable.. I dont know, what will happen in two, in three years - I'm talking about now.
I can't get into the heads of those people, who leave. Surely they have their reasons. I'm sure, that some of them stole a little somewhere and just runs. I understand that too.
ПРОНЬКО: By the way, about Ukraine. Konstantin from Donetsk asks: “Tell, you are welcome, as you can see today the situation with wheat in the American markets? you said, what are you trading with this instrument?. Thanks”.
MUSTARD: Yes, I sell all cereals, and wheat, and corn, etc. Wheat, I think, today it will still grow. There was a very strong growth, then there was a very strong rollback. I think anyway, that last year's crop failure will have a very strong effect, not so many crops. Plus this year, for example, problem, basically, hot summer, not rainy. Same problem for corn, Japan is one of the biggest consumers here. That's why I think, that cereals will go up, and their prices will also go up.
ПРОНЬКО: Good evening.
LISTENER: Good evening, My name is Alexander. I can tell, that in absentia I even consider myself your student to some extent.
MUSTARD: Thanks.
LISTENER: A question. Is it possible to independently master the specialty of a trader, profession, to become, in general,, profitable specialist?
MUSTARD: Simply put - are teachers needed, is it possible to do without them: unequivocally yes. I am a prime example of this, and such, like me, the company had thousands of people. That is, not of my level, but there were guys, who earned. Nobody worked with us, we started then, when the firm, in 1998 year, It was 30 human. There weren't so many books then., and guys, which took place, they were independent people. So that, the answer is definitely yes, you just have to spend a little more energy.
I will even say more: I do not know, how would it be better - if you learned from a teacher or you would do it yourself. When you study with a teacher, you are trying to intercept his style, therefore, when conducting my courses, I do not impose any style - I just give the general picture at the expense of the market. And that doesn't mean, that this particular trading style can suit you mentally.
ПРОНЬКО: That is, everyone determines individually for themselves.
MUSTARD: Absolutely. In my courses I always suggest 10-15 trading styles, and each of the listeners chooses their own. I always say, what if you trade, and you have some style, which is not bad, that is, you do not lose money, which is already good, try to follow it.
A lot of literature, video, and now many brokers, especially to get a client, make a special promotion, teach free of charge. There are so many people, who simply do not have money for courses. Do they have a chance to become traders? The answer is yes.
ПРОНЬКО: The magic answer!.. Igor asks: “Alexander, where is it better to start for a novice trader - from Forex or from the stock market?”
MUSTARD: We also have an answer to this insidious question.. In Russia, Forex is present mainly in the form of mini-Forex, because on the interbank Forex contracts are very expensive. For example, the euro contract is there 120-130 thousand euros.
I'll be honest, I was pleasantly surprised by the liquidity of all that, what is traded on the RTS: gold futures, oil futures, everything is very liquid, very expensive.
ПРОНЬКО: Excellent derivatives market, Yes.
MUSTARD: The same ruble / dollar pair is one of my favorites, By the way. You can safely trade 10 or 20 thousand rubles. If you don't have that kind of money either, then, naturally, you don't even need to think about it. But if you have 20-30 thousand rubles, you can trade any futures contract on the RTS.
ПРОНЬКО: But I still have to say, that in this case this is not a recommendation - this is the opinion of Alexander Gerchik. You decide for yourself. I just want to warn those, who wants to connect with derivatives, what knowledge is needed there, understanding is needed there. It is preferable to start with the stock market, but if you are ready to go into derivatives already - well, welcome, as they say in such cases.
MUSTARD: Ruble / dollar pair, for example, very slow and calm. Corn can be traded, mini corn futures. That is, with a short account, with a small account, you can trade mini corn futures, there is a very small step - 4 dollar 25 Cents. There is, certainly, more and longer, S&P-futures and everything else.
But my advice is one for beginners: start with the cheapest tools, invest as little as possible. It's like a business.
ПРОНЬКО: So that the heart does not hurt later.
MUSTARD: Yes. Have you lost big money or little money - you will learn in exactly the same way. If you are lost, you must understand, why did this happen. I make my students keep diaries. At first they screamed, how paradoxical it is, how uninteresting it is. But when they, for example, review their trade for six months, then they can compare this growth.
ПРОНЬКО: Do you understand, Sasha, in the country, where people understand little, what is a financial plan and generally surprised eyes do, when you start telling them about it, this is a whole mental-psychological problem. But I, Really, hope, that we are already drifting away from it.
MUSTARD: Here, the main problem of aspiring businessmen is, what, just starting, they are already rushing to count the profit, strive to earn hooliards, as the Internet is called (new currency has appeared). Any business in America starts at risk. One of my students even completed his doctorate for three years., starting to write all business plans from losses.
I always start my classes on the courses from the first page: give yourself a year! Not three months, not half a year - a year. How to calculate? Elementary. Imagine 250 trading days, you are a complete idiot, And 20% trading days you are in the black. I.e 50 trading days. That is, you have 200 minus days. And if you have two thousand dollars, which you are ready to lose in a year, then break this amount, this is your maximum loss! You will clearly know, that this year you will at least learn something, and after that you will draw conclusions.
Why survives 3% Traders, and through 10 years remains 1%? We passed all together in several companies of thousands 15, but left 30 human. It is less 1%.
ПРОНЬКО: Just the dry residue.
MUSTARD: Not really, this is a wet residue! All the rest are dry residue.
ПРОНЬКО: Good evening. What is your name?
LISTENER: My name is Igor. I have a question. I trade dollar / ruble and I want to say about political risks. The phrase sounded, that wheat is great to trade. But where is the wheat traded? After all, she does not bargain with us, we have an embargo and so on.
ПРОНЬКО: Our embargo has been lifted.
LISTENER: This is what I want to say: it was canceled today, and tomorrow it was reintroduced, the day after tomorrow the exchanges were leaked, then the auction was stopped, for someone to grow up and so on. What exchanges can you talk about?? I understand completely, that OBEP will not come, he won't arrest anyone's apartment ...
MUSTARD: We're talking about futures contracts, you, by law, have the right to safely invest money in foreign issuers
LISTENER: In fact of the matter, that this is an international business, and not that, that everything is fine in Russia and ...
MUSTARD: And we did not talk about this - we are talking about, what are wheat prices, That, for example, in Russia and the Russian embargo, they, certainly, influenced wheat prices, but they are not one of the biggest suppliers.
ПРОНЬКО: Evgeny asks: “Good evening, Alexander. What interesting securities do you see at the moment on the Russian market?? Thanks”.
MUSTARD: The market conditions are very good now. At my last seminar, we talked a lot about Russian papers.
I was never afraid to make recommendations. Of the last 15 recommendations for “RBC” 13 recommendations worked. The problem is, what people think, now if Sasha Gerchik said, what to buy “Sberbank”, means, necessary…
ПРОНЬКО: All rushed!
MUSTARD: …Yes, all rush and buy “Sberbank”. Not, Need to know, that there are certain levels for each paper, there are certain prices. When market conditions allow, everything will go up. Something faster, something slower, but everything will go up. The task for investors is one and very simple: have to wait for a good entry point, this is the entry point, which provides you with a short stop.
ПРОНЬКО: Dmitry: “Do you see Ukraine as promising for your projects?”
MUSTARD: Not yet.
ПРОНЬКО: Honest answer.
MUSTARD: The Ukrainian market has one big plus: President of the Ukrainian Stock Exchange Oleg Tkachenko. It's actually, this is not an advertisement for him. He deserves colossal respect.: this is a man, who is not afraid to butt with anyone, who goes to the ministers of Ukraine and directly says, that Ukraine should have its own market. That is, he deserves all respect.. They have pushed so many sticks in his wheels! But he knows how to get out of it. If he hears me, I say hello to him.
ПРОНЬКО: Natalia writes: “Good afternoon, today at “expert” wrote, which, according to the Forex Club of Russia, is about 400 thousands of people annually bring Forex companies, dealing centers and banks about half a billion dollars, from 75 to 98 percent of players lose money. Sounds awful! In your opinion, these are realistic estimates of the losers? Sounds like a scam”.
MUSTARD: Yes, from 75-90% - this is, certainly, realistically, Yes! And in the stock market, too, a very large number of people lose money., Over there 90% lose money. For a very simple reason: when a person walks, He does not know, what does it go to.
ПРОНЬКО: Here and from Kazakhstan they express their gratitude ... Listen, thanks to you, our geography today is the entire post-Soviet space.
Stanislav asks: “How do you feel about the merger of the MICEX and RTS?”
MUSTARD: So far, it's very hard to say. I personally think, that it's not quite right: then the competition dies. Competition must be, both here and the MICEX exchange has its colossal number of advantages, and in the RTS exchange. Maybe, i don't know something, but the competition between the two players must be. When the competition goes away, people stop doing anything.
ПРОНЬКО: We went further and went beyond the post-Soviet space - Artem from Montreal writes: “Good evening, Alexander. Trade on NYSE, I haven't started earning yet, but there is definitely progress. I observe the process in development. Question to Alexander - about the period of the beginning of earning for a trader in the market, more about psychology”.
MUSTARD: As I already said, I will repeat this for Artyom from Montreal: only trading plan. The so-called algorithm. For all. That is, a person has no right to take a step without an algorithm..
Good anecdote, and everyone will understand everything.
The addict sits at home on the bed, knowing, that guests should come to him. He, naturally, “under foggy Albion”, He does not know, what happens to him. But before that, how to get stoned, he writes himself a plan of action: “If the doorbell rang, the first point is to get up, the second point is to put on slippers, the third point is to go to the door, fourth point - ask “Who's there?”. And here it is., he took a dose, is sitting, gets high - suddenly the doorbell rings. He takes a piece of paper, does everything point by point, comes to the door and asks: “Who's there?” From there the answer: “It's me, dash, your friend Vasya, comma, came to you to drink tea”.
I.e, a person has no right to do anything without an algorithm.
ПРОНЬКО: Here on the forum, practical tutorials are asked to name - ready to say, there are such?
MUSTARD: I have my tutorial, which has long been posted on the Internet, called “Trader course”, free. More recently, I was also asked to name such tutorials. “Textbook” very simple: let them read “Count of Monte Cristo”. Are you surprised, Yes?
ПРОНЬКО: Not, I'm just preparing for an answer.
MUSTARD: Yes, the answer will be extremely simple: the Count of Monte Cristo is a man, who dug a hole, to escape, for twenty years. Also the trader, it can really be compared with this: to learn how to make money, you need to learn to hit in one place and for a very long time.
The second book is for those traders, who have already learned something, but cannot earn. You will laugh: “Up from the mind”.
ПРОНЬКО: Why - very much even!.. That is, the classics have long answered all these questions..
MUSTARD: I now had a large trading group of guys, with whom I dealt, which came out with my own money, - I made everyone read “Up from the mind”. The mother of one of my students calls me at home and says: “Alexander Mikhailovich ...”
ПРОНЬКО: Why did you do it?
MUSTARD: well, because they take out the brain: how to earn, how to get better and everything else. No need to endure the brain, there are statistics. You open it: if the curve is beautiful and goes up - nothing needs to be done, it is necessary to increase the volume, if the curve goes down, gotta think about it, why did she become like this. And people start asking questions, look for some trainers for yourself and all that jazz.
And one boy's mom calls me and says: “Alexander Mikhailovich, I get up for work at five in the morning - he sits reading “Up from the mind”. I dont know, what to do, call an ambulance or be happy”.
ПРОНЬКО: I think, Mom should still be happy ... Good evening, what is your name?
LISTENER: My name is Artyom, my question, question from Artyom from Montreal, actually, and sounded. It is a great honor for me to hear Alexander on the air.
MUSTARD: Thanks.
LISTENER: thanks a lot.
ПРОНЬКО: Thank you too ... Well, geography is expanding.
MUSTARD: Yes, and if people have personal questions, i can give you my skype, it is very simple - agerchik, and my email is [email protected]. Write, log in, if the questions are short, I will be happy to answer them. I answer myself, I have no secretaries, I write in Cyrillic, so you will immediately understand, what is it me.
ПРОНЬКО: Listen, here a woman confesses her love to you, He speaks, that you are a wonderful man! Alexey writes thanks from Estonia ...
MUSTARD: BUT, Lesha is the king of jokes.
ПРОНЬКО: From Greece, from Athens ... listen, you are all over the world, and! You are worldwide!
MUSTARD: Internet. Well, yes, very nice.
ПРОНЬКО: And it all started with, that a boy from Odessa came to New York.
MUSTARD: You know, I'll tell you honestly. I think, what, basically, the reason for the popularity ...
ПРОНЬКО: This is the key moment now!
MUSTARD: …In one: I don't sell bullshit. Never.
ПРОНЬКО: That's why people are grateful.
MUSTARD: Yes. I tell from the first day, how hard it will be.
ПРОНЬКО: But at the same time, you are not a benefactor or an altruist..
MUSTARD: You know, 30% of people, which I take to courses, i let it free. But on one condition: if I know for sure, that people have no money. Russian people are often indignant on courses. Because they say, how so, we came from afar, from the Far East, for example, paid, and you let me in here. I always say that: “You are more fortunate in life, than him”.
I do not speak, that i'm so good, but if i have the opportunity, i do. But I am a professional in my field, I am a businessman, and I shouldn't do for free. And still there is a part of my business, where do I let people go for free and allocate my own funds. This is actually.
ПРОНЬКО: Alexander Gerchik. Thank you very much ... This “Dry residue” on “Finam FM“. Thanks everyone, who wrote, who called, who was with us here in Russia and abroad. Further news, have a nice evening everyone.
Original article
http://finam.fm/archive-view/4340/
