last, what surprised me was, from my point of view, an overly nervous reaction to the ECB's inability to work with markets. the problems with refinancing the southern European debt were clear in advance, as well as that, that the European bureaucracy – this is the European bureaucracy. basically, for all this, the markets can only be thanked, otherwise, there would be no reason to buy risk in the summer.
economic data has not brought anything new and interesting. just like in the spring the market admired the dynamics of the PMI and leading indicators, exactly the same summer, the markets went into hysterics in the other direction. risks & quot; double dip" now exactly the same, like at the beginning of the year. the only question is, how clear they are to `` consensus ''. Really, marginal changes in consensus and create an opportunity for earning in the short run.
On the one side, everything is good and right, and almost on schedule.
On the other hand, & quot; double dip" and deflation is becoming mainstream. my contrarian, it is my problem. for me it only works with currencies, well, with raw materials more or less. with shares it does not work at all. but & quot; oh-oh, deflation has already begun, horror-horror, we will all die '', starts to strain very much.
and two more interesting points in the graphs.
first about demand for loans (with Freud's error in the signature of the graphs):
and interestingness with an age breakdown in the labor market