The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran to financial markets: Month forecast in numbers
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has begun 13 June 2025 of the year, caused significant shocks in world financial markets. Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and Iranian energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field, as well as Iranian reciprocal attacks provoked a sharp increase in oil prices, The collapse of stock indices and increased interest in assets-refugees. Based on current data and analysis of the geopolitical situation, a detailed review of the consequences of the conflict escalation and forecast for July are presented below. 2025 of the year. Conflict escalation and oil market: скачок цен и угроза Ормузского пролива Текущая ситуация: The escalation of the conflict has led to an increase in oil prices Brent to 6%, reaching $74,23 for barrel - maximum in five months. Main Factors: Interruptions in deliveries from Iran (about 3,8 million barrels per day, or 4% world production, According to OPEC). The threat of closing the Ormuzian Strait, through which passes 20% global oil (21 million barrels per day, loud EIA). Peak growth on 13% 13 June 2025 years after impacts on the infrastructure of Iran. Forecast for July 2025: With the escalation of the conflict: Brent prices can reach $ 85–95 per barrel, With a risk of growth to $ 100-110 (Rating JPMorgan: to $120 With the worst script). Probability: 40%. In deescalations: Stabilization at $ 68–73 per barrel, With a return to $ 69–70. Probability: 50%. …
