An interesting situation is developing.
On the one hand, off-scale optimism, company accountability, good data, easy take 1200 on S&P500, increasing growth, increased consumption in the States, decrease in oil reserves, liquidity support, some people didn't even understand, what was the crisis… It's a plus. Ie. general sentiment superbull.
With another, problems of some countries as they were, so they remained, raw materials are purchased for future consumption, but will they consume more (statistics show improvement, at least in the USA), Bubble pumping, Is there a bubble? Maybe a bubble in the heads of the shorts?
Subjectively. Enhanced growth S&P500 parabolic – it usually doesn't end well (to put it mildly), but how long can the impulse last – unknown, as always, all consider themselves the smartest, and what will have time to jump off. Arrival of new players to the FR (see previous post). Demura – predicts growth, Hedgehog plans to close short positions, many longists are thinking of starting short, even aggressively (line of defense 170000 RI, 1220-25 on S&P500). but, taking this milestone will only strengthen the growth parabola. In other words, there are shifts in the minds. Who put on the fall – exhausted and demoralized (partly we go on their fixing of losses and margin calls of small things), who followed the trend, Understand, what, as if everything is already, finita la comedia is coming, the more stock is made. You can fix and try for a short, and positionally. Question, how long will the optimism of newly arrived players and liquidity support be enough?.
UPD. A Western analyst has just been shown on RBC, unambiguously recommending to buy on every fall.
