Got up very early today. Посмотрел – on the eurodollar short signal, but the zone itself is forbidden to enter the position, ie. only scalp possible (in my understanding it is 15-30 points), and in the future, price can move anywhere, therefore did not enter. And yes, worked on “It's cool”. A dangling unprofitable position closed with a stop loss 4%. Ну и ладно. Now such entries will be excluded.. UPD. Probably, similar signals (like the last), after all, нужно брать, but with a short target and a tight stop loss.
Prologue. For …100% per month, this is reality… and even 200…
Archimedes was overwhelmed by the joy of unexpected discovery, and he screaming “Эврика!”, rushed out naked into the street.
Weekdays. I will summarize the intermediate result of three-week testing. As I already wrote, there was a certain approach, in most cases giving profit, but sometimes not giving. Besides, the criteria for taking profit or loss were not clear. It was necessary to make the most efficient working system. Losses in the market strongly stimulate this. In theory and ex post facto, the chart worked well., Besides, давно, in several other market conditions it worked fine. I was interested in signals on hourly timeframes. I described the problems in the previous post..
For testing, we monitored 10 currency pairs, gold, silver Today we have such a picture.
Now there is one unclosed unprofitable position in the minus area 2-3%. The conditions for passing the point of no return have not yet triggered, but limited by stop loss, just in case.
The maximum drawdown of the deposit was 27%. Количество убыточных сделок 17%. Increase position size, with the growth of the deposit, not carried out. The deals were either covered completely, either half, with the transfer of the balance to breakeven.
First third of the graph – the system is still damp – trying to take all the signals, regardless of the picture of the graphs. Experiments with stops and transfers to breakeven. Hit on the raskolbas, with carry-overs thereof. Further, discarding unnecessary signals, feet – mental (ie. position is covered manually, upon the occurrence of certain market conditions). The third part – interesting too. Something has come “decay” Equity. What was connected with? Signal is triggered – I come in – the price goes my way, but does not reach the goal, turns against the position, but the point of no return does not pass – transferring TP to breakeven – closes in plus. Вобщем-то, it was this series that prompted a solution. Then I will try a proportional increase in the lot and the magic power of compound interest.
The main problem was not to identify the signal, how “tru”, or “not tru”, by advice , the vast majority were “tru”. The difficulty was in defining goals. In one case, the signal was given by the scalp, with the aim of 10-15 points (when it comes to forex), in a different – position trade on 300-400 pips. How to identify them, I didn't quite imagine. There were three kinds of solution. 1. Positional trades bet, a la Rezvyakov-Verbitsky, with their anticipation of shock days. 2. Isolation of some intermediate value, depending on the volatility of the pair – 25-50 pips and exit by orders. 3. Pipsing on 5-minute charts.
The first option was swept aside due to the unwillingness to wait for the weather by the sea., и надеяться, what the market will give you someday. Besides, my deep conviction, that the system must have a high winratio. The third also failed, for obvious reasons. The second showed quite decent results, but the departed suitcases with money annoyed, and even more the situation, when the price went up at first, and then flew away to minus.
In a word, I had to break my head, and meditate a lot… The solution came in the form of scraps of phrases read or heard, the mosaic has developed :). True, I'm sitting now completely exhausted and devastated…
… I, certainly, logged in again, but smaller volume, and I consider it as a trade of a corrective movement, with small goals. It's too late to enter at the moment.
I've been thinking about blogging again for a long time, but somehow my hands did not reach. That one, то другое. Also pushed to write further reviews of people about my blog., which they sent me to Skype.
Briefly about, what happened in recent months: We hired several new people to the office. Smart guys.
Have arisen, Really, with the office and certain problems. Now we are solving them.
We also think about moving to a composition or prop or about raising money for trading in our office. I like the prop option better. There will be risk with a whip and bosses with gingerbread. You can fully concentrate on trading and not worry about households. проблемах.
We mainly trade in the medium term (most of the poses – лонги) – almost gone off 5 minute charts. Our candidates for stock trading up to 10 bachey. We understand their behavior and trade comfortably.
For the curious, I'll tell you right away – we have not yet started living off trading. There are many moments, which still need to work and work.
That, that VTB and Gazprom will become the heroes of the day today, was not in doubt, even wrote about it yesterday in the comments. For some reason I am always afraid to participate in such rallies, didn't go this time either. Modestly bought Mosenergo.
After analyzing the situation yesterday, I made a couple of notes (actually noted before, but decided to fix attention). 1. I have always managed to earn more in a sideways or sluggish trend. On strong movements, I'm in 80% Lose, and in 15% take only a small part of the movement. 2. The main mistake is getting used to a certain phase of the market., playing against the trend and inability to recognize the change in market sentiment in time. 3. Working in the direction of moving averages is the most preferable. Sudden, sharp breaks, of course happen, but there are several times a year, and it is not very reasonable to bet only on them. A certain difficulty for such a strategy is the sideways trend., when all MAs are intertwined. It is at this time that you need to counter-trend., using oscillators and reversal patterns on small time frames. All the rest of the time – approach in direction, with corrections, naturally, (except in situations, when there is a powerful return). If “fan of medium” unfolds in any direction, this indicates the beginning of a strong movement. I yawned, stand up against “Fans” definitely shouldn't. This is a dangerous psychological trap (they say he didn't take the impulse, I'll take a correction). Overbought by oscillators, in such areas only indicates that, when you should not enter the market by movement, but it is not always a signal to enter a countertrend. Divergence is a much stronger reversal signal, but in these cases, scalp preferred. Any asset can be dragged or dropped for as long as necessary.
PS Consider, what timeframes I usually watch 30-60 minutes.
