Statistical probability.

Blog readers know my attitude towards Taleb and the idea that is being promoted everywhere now. “Чёрного лебедя”. In my opinion, the author is in a kind of trap of consciousness, trying to fit the whole world order to the probabilities. Making millions on falling financial markets, he acquired the status of a prophet. It is appropriate to recall our Demur, once guessed, but all subsequent predictions were “past the checkout”. Apparently that's why, both Taleb and Demura are so fond of options. Is it possible to foresee the movement of the markets, with a probability of more 50%? I'm sure, what "yes. Can at least one monkey in a million (десяти, one hundred million),if you give them on a typewriter, to write “War and peace”? I'm sure, what is not. In conclusion, I want to cite a survey. Known, that many people, during their life have repeatedly got into situations, associated with deadly risk, and at the last moment, something pushed danger aside, everything happens in slow motion… Aircraft, disastrous, usually filled on 8% fewer who reached the destination. Lots of examples, and they don't fit into a simple coin toss 50 on 50, heads or tails. Have there been any occasions in your life, deadly (say, chance to die or be seriously injured ~ 50%)? Risk of accident, plane crash, fighting, going under the ice, falling from height, stroke during, etc., and so on.

Taleb's recommendation


He recommends shorting Treasuries. , he is already thinking whether it was worth it!
Я согласен , that in the future, sooner or later, Treasuries must fall, но в ситуации , when markets are weak and the Fed buys them with foreigners, can be lost " pants & quot;, which actually has been going on for a year in Treasury.
And now when the threat of sovereign debts hangs again and the markets fall and the money is hiding in the TREASURE and he recommends shorting it. Counter trend trade.

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