Russia intraday
For those, who in " the sea" you can cover up the SHORTS on the sly according to my recommendations, goals achieved . You can always re-enter.
comments
ES technical perspective
Judging by the schedule, trend 2 hourly chart remains in force, although you can see, that the last top did not reach the upper channel line., negative reversal formation can also be expected. Tomorrow 8 April so I will SHORT overnight, during the day I will probably go to SHORT, if the market is weak. The size of the position will depend on what the close will be.
Момент истины
so, the market is slightly minus and today FOMC. That, that he is in the stratosphere is beyond doubt, but it is also not unusual since there have already been situations of prolonged stay, as overbought, and oversold. It just doesn't happen that often..
Undoubtedly. judging by the upward movement of the market, the investment world votes for future economic growth and discounts it. I've already heard, what SPX earnings is expected in 2010 near 80 and if we apply, say 15, then the goal is 1200, and on 2011 Order 90-95. then you can expect 1400-1500.
Basically, why not :)) Only I think, that the angle of rise is higher , what it should be. This is due to excess liquidity and she chooses places , where the risk is higher. As a matter of fact, don't scare, but if there is liquidity, then why do you need some 3-4% without risk. You can sit out the risk, if upside 15-20%, and the stock and commodity market showed, what can be done and much more.
The moment of truth for the market today will be associated with, what Bernacke will tell us about the exit strategy. If the market is so bullish, hence, everything is good and you need to gradually withdraw liquidity. The first step is to return that spread between fed funds and discount rate, which was before the crisis, that is in 100 bp means more 50 Bp the Fed has before, how to think about raising the fed fund rate.
We already know what reaction it can produce.. Besides. I think, what it needs to be done as commodities are starting to enter the price range, which is undesirable from the point of view of producers and consumers.
US gasoline starts again “prick” exceeds 3 bucks for a gallon. That's why “withdrawal” liquidity should at least cool the commodity markets, which were inflated with hot money.
From a technical point of view, while there is RSI divergence for SPX and ES. Perhaps today it will be a kind of local apogee for the market, if Bernanke agrees with my thoughts. Consolidation zone 1168 for ES is still pivotal support for this market.
During the day, I will probably increase the SHORT depending on the situation..
In Russia, so far, everything remains in force in the sense of ideas for Gazprom and Norilsk Nickel. Yes, and the market itself will stare at the United States and should today be “defensive”
SPX technical
If you look at the daytime picture, but still unfinished, then you can see some negative. We approached the green trend line and MA(14-15) is also approaching. So the bulls need to hold it, and vice versa for bears.
From a fundamental point of view, a couple of days ahead are full of important data as well..
Gazprom-Sberbank
When the external market is weak, Gazprom looks like 162 and Sberbank 80-83 в ближайшей перспективе. Only a powerful new impetus for oil and SPX upwards will be able to neutralize the negative.
Day update
Been busy all day , so a quick glance at the daytime SPX.
Major trend and support line is represented by a green upward line.
Resistance at the upper point of the negative candlestick at 1170 SPX. If we close above, then it is possible and will creep up again, while serious technical and fundamental weaknesses remain.
Retail data came out good today. Commods are resistant except for gold.
My relatively small short is valid , in case of breakdown 1170 per spot, I'll close it soon , but I will also go from any point, where will I see negative momentum. Stop will add to the minus approximately 2%. While SHORT is generally minus percent 5%-6%., what is beaten off …
Sugar watching and possibly forming a temporary bottom.
Technical sketches
Here is the daily SPX chart, to visualize what to expect in the time zone of 19 March-8 April.
19 Martha, as i assumed, turned out to be a critical day, judging by the magnitude of the fall in comparison with the previous activity. Momentum stopped at the intersection of the vertical line 19 March and purple mini trend line. I personally underestimated, that it should have happened at the mark 1170, thought, which is too early to storm such heights. Assuming, that we have formed a candlestick formation, talking about local top, then support lines immediately appear when a rollback from these heights.
Obviously, what a high-speed uptrend line( Green colour) is the main support, as well as the horizontal line of the previous local top in the area 1150-1152. In case of closing below the intersection of these lines, a target for a more substantial support line will open, bottom line of the ascending channel( purple line).
One of the negative scenarios is a rollback to the vertical dotted line( fibo zone) this is the area 8 April.
Considering, that the support lines are dynamic, then the tentative goal of such a scenario is to 8 April == 1130.
Надо также отметить, that SPX has climbed a bit high relative to many MAs and therefore MAs themselves will be supports and one of the targets of a pullback.
Undoubtedly, that this scenario is likely in the absence of any super positive news.
Sunday brings us a vote in Congress and therefore this news risk could create an unpredictable reaction in the market..
Надо также отметить, that the end of the quarter is usually tried to close on a positive note window dressing. But the first week of April may be more negative.
As for the MICEX index, then i don't like, that the index is still not above the level 1455-1460 and below the trend line( green Line) while , that the RSI level is high and above 75. This is considered negative divergence.. Therefore, in the event of a correction in the foreign market, testing the area 1300 becomes highly probable.
The weekly chart also clearly shows RSI divergence.
It should be noted, that the flagships of the Russian market show divergences.
With regard to Gazprom, everything has been said before and remains relevant, you can see the charts in the Gazprom tag. If there are no intercessors in Gazprom, then it will be possible to witness the mark 150.
Sberbank, although better than Gazprom, but there are divergences on the weekly chart. And if 90 will remain a stumbling block, then " spring unwinding" to the area 55-60 quite likely(this is a pessimistic scenario).
New ans
There is one nuance, which kind of holds me back from being aggressive in SHORT for the weekend, This is a vote on Sunday by healh care bill in Congress, so depending on the close I will decide how much I will leave the position.
But everyone needs to know , that there is a risk of GEP on Monday up, maybe a little because of this vote.
Leak of gas…..
Quick comment on Gazprom without a schedule.
The technical picture is getting worse and rtest 160 becomes probable.