It's time to think about…….
At one time I wrote , what to think about rebound . Maybe it's time to think about a rollback? !! :)
comments
morning comment
The market managed to scramble out well, although oil and copper did not show much dynamics.
Optimists try to convince, that Goldman can defend himself and it's okay. In fact, it just opened “a door” for more. A tougher reform in the financial industry will surely be adopted, and will also fray the nerves of other financial companies. Usually those, who fall into the millstones of American jurisprudence are subject to huge losses, as material, so moral and it doesn't matter right or wrong. Some already predict moral bankruptcy for Goldman. I think, that they will resist, but the price will be high.
From a technical point of view, retention above the mark will be positive 1200, respectively, negative – below.
If the market behaves more positively, than i expect, then you have to hide behind a breakeven and then reposition yourself. As we know, TOP is not formed in one day, therefore, pulling up is not excluded.
June oil traded in large volumes, so we look at the June contract
By the way, India raised its interest rate by 25 bps and no reaction, but this is also a hint to China. And if China raises, then the reaction will be immediately negative.
Just in case
Just in case, while there is weakness and slight oversold, I release some of the money of the order 25% from positions, fixing profit on 1183.5( this is an order plus unrealized 9.75%), we must not forget trade around until there is a clear sell signal in the market. Then I'll see where to add or remove.
One cannot go broke by taking profit
Chinese threat
According to the latest economic data for China, it's just flourishing there!!!
GDP grew by 11.9%, industrial production at 18%, retail of 18%, car sale on 76%. True, and CPI grew by almost 3%.
Therefore, China can either strengthen the yuan significantly., or increase the amount of reserves, or raise the discount rate. How would it be, it can dampen the demand for comoditis and curb risk appetite, what may affect other markets.
It seems to me. that with such a growth in GDP, they should go to raise the discount rate , everything else will not be able to cope with the gluttonous Chinese.
The calendar
Today, there is also serious data.. Including copper from Chile.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Economic
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, April Empire Manufacturing, Chile March Copper Exports
09:00 Feb Long-Term TIC Flows
09:15 March Industrial Production, March Capacity Utilization
10:00 April Philadelphia Fed
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 April NAHB Housing Market
18:00 Chile Rate Decision
Events
10:30 Fed’s lacker to speak at credit conference. 12:15 Fed’s Bullard speaks on financial risks. 13:40 Fed’s Lockhart to speak on US economy. 15:00 White House Advisor Volcker to discuss financial risks. 15:15 Fed’s Lacker to hold press briefing. 21:00 Fed’s Yellen to discuss US economic outlook. Credit Card Master Trusts. Tentatively scheduled FDA Molecular and Clinical Genetics Panel Meeting. Trades Ex-dividend: AYI $0.13, VALE $0.24.
Earnings
Before the Open: CBSH, FCS, PPG, TITN. After the Close: AMD, ATR, CBK, CBST, GOOG, ISRG, PBCT.
Action Plan, 23 April
Daily Fibo zones passed with small deviations, so I will focus on the new time date
23 April, where a break is possible, so on this date should have a large position, if this BUYOK continues its work. And before that there will be attempts to find the starting point of entry.
Need to mark , what 16 expiration, but not 23. so there may be shifts. As well as 23 April is closer to the month of MAY and perhaps sell in may and go away will work this time.
Pancake
Looks like, that I overdid it with a stop. :))
If negative momentum appears , then I will slowly add.
Update 19:42
Maybe 1179.50 will be decent resistance and if that, then there I will also try to be added to the SHORT
Sberbank technical
Sberbank is under such a heavy cap, that without a powerful new impulse on the external background it will be difficult for him to make a new high. Therefore, LONG people need to be on the lookout..
I'll tell you in secret, that i'm SHORT starting today in the model portfolio :)) The stop is very clearly visible