comments
Night comment
I ran through the general gaze on the main charts and cite the following:
1.ES Chart Turns Negative After Weak Close Today. Weak daily sell signal according to my criteria.
2.For further weakness, it is important to note the support for copper in 330 and oil 77, breakdown of which is necessary to confirm the sell signal by ES.
Day commentary
Unfortunately, could not comment before, Nevertheless, I see, that in the states the situation has deteriorated technically. Citigroup Report Contributes to Technical Drawing. That's why, continuing comments from last week, ES seems to be on the mark 1100.
Update
Possibly hastened with the assessment, such a turn was not intended. Looks like bear trap. 3 times bounced off the level 1130. Some people expect good reporting from IBM and this may explain such activity
Economic data
Retail sales came out weak even with all sorts of discounts, foreclosure at all-time high, and the optimism of investors is not fading away yet.
If the market manages to ignore it , then let's go higher, if not, then correction is not far off. Although Intel's report still needs to be experienced and the market can cling to it.
Мысли вслух
The more I read and see economic information about the US economy, especially ,I get shocked by that effect, which resulted from such a resonance of many negative factors in the states.
The very fact of, that the USA was overleveraged did not play a big role, this is precisely the resonance of all that negative besides overleverage, what caused this `` 10 point earthquake on the Richter scale ''. It is also economic, and socio-political reasons, who sent such a " super heavyweight & quot;.
And despite the fact that, that I am cautiously optimistic about the situation in the states, I am still afraid of the situation with unemployment and retail sales. Although the situation in the real estate market has stabilized, but that doesn't mean, that there will be a sharp demand. Where does it come from if people lose their jobs and employers are in no hurry to hire. Not to mention commercial real estate, which just collapsed. As long as I remember, then landlords had never lowered the cost of renting apartments before, and now it even came to this and there are still unfilled apartments.
What is happening now in the USA!?
It reminds me of the situation with refueling an airplane in the air.. Fed is pumping liquidity, it requires filigree work, like a tanker in the air, practically no money flows into the real sector, maybe it's a `` fuel tank with a hole ''!! So you can peck with your nose.
What if you don't refuel on time!?? What if the fuel is wrong?
Of course the market behaves like a player, which gives a good face for a bad game, that is, going up, as if everything is fine there.
P.S This is me all to that, that I can revise my optimistic stanza on the situation in the USA and on the dollar, if I don't see real shifts and steps in directions, who will really improve the situation for those living in the United States.
Having lived so much in the states, I see the depth of change not just in the economic , but also on the mental level of people, what can change their thinking patterns.
Impressive
Chicago PMI has grown decently 60.
Will add fuel to the fire for the bulls, or rather turpentine :))
Today 09:45am EST / 02:45pm GMT
*DEC CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX: 60.0 V 55.1E (HIGHEST SINCE JAN 2006)
*sub-indices: – Prices Paid: 54.9 v 52.6 last –
New Orders: 63.5 v 62.8 last
Evening update
Looks like , that the Christmass presentation took place not only by the index, but also on copper, and oil has rebounded quite well lately.