GAZPROM

Момент истины

so, the market is slightly minus and today FOMC. That, that he is in the stratosphere is beyond doubt, but it is also not unusual since there have already been situations of prolonged stay, as overbought, and oversold. It just doesn't happen that often..
Undoubtedly. judging by the upward movement of the market, the investment world votes for future economic growth and discounts it. I've already heard, what SPX earnings is expected in 2010 near 80 and if we apply, say 15, then the goal is 1200, and on 2011 Order 90-95. then you can expect 1400-1500.
Basically, why not :)) Only I think, that the angle of rise is higher , what it should be. This is due to excess liquidity and she chooses places , where the risk is higher. As a matter of fact, don't scare, but if there is liquidity, then why do you need some 3-4% without risk. You can sit out the risk, if upside 15-20%, and the stock and commodity market showed, what can be done and much more.
The moment of truth for the market today will be associated with, what Bernacke will tell us about the exit strategy. If the market is so bullish, hence, everything is good and you need to gradually withdraw liquidity. The first step is to return that spread between fed funds and discount rate, which was before the crisis, that is in 100 bp means more 50 Bp the Fed has before, how to think about raising the fed fund rate.
We already know what reaction it can produce.. Besides. I think, what it needs to be done as commodities are starting to enter the price range, which is undesirable from the point of view of producers and consumers.
US gasoline starts again “prick” exceeds 3 bucks for a gallon. That's why “withdrawal” liquidity should at least cool the commodity markets, which were inflated with hot money.
From a technical point of view, while there is RSI divergence for SPX and ES. Perhaps today it will be a kind of local apogee for the market, if Bernanke agrees with my thoughts. Consolidation zone 1168 for ES is still pivotal support for this market.

During the day, I will probably increase the SHORT depending on the situation..
In Russia, so far, everything remains in force in the sense of ideas for Gazprom and Norilsk Nickel. Yes, and the market itself will stare at the United States and should today be “defensive”

Gazprom-Sberbank

When the external market is weak, Gazprom looks like 162 and Sberbank 80-83 в ближайшей перспективе. Only a powerful new impetus for oil and SPX upwards will be able to neutralize the negative.

Gazprom update

Gazprom is trying to wake up. Hold higher 172 will be considered a positive sign for a triangle breakout. How stable the breakdown of this burden will be is not clear. To move up, the absence of special external shocks is necessary..

Gazprom day

Almost similar sketches are visible on the daily chart., after a downward impulse, consolidation transforms into triangles, indicated by red arrows. It remains only to make sure, что произойдет на этот раз.
Howbeit, I said earlier, what if there is faith in mid-term Gazprom, then you can use hedging of the transaction.

Joe Krutsinger for the Russian market

Continuing the previous topic, we can say that its systems do not work for western markets, but for Gazprom and futures on the RTS on H1 it is quite suitable. True, I have incomplete data on these tools. — absent for 2009 year, but it's also better — check on 2009 as out of sample :)

Yes, completely forgot — this system is called “Time Any”. Here is her code for WealthLab4:

——————————————–
was Bar, p: integer;
PlotSeries( HighestSeries( #High, 5 ), 0, #Red, #Thin );
PlotSeries( LowestSeries( #Low, 5 ), 0, #Blue, #Thin );

for Bar := 20 to BarCount – 1 do
begin
if LastPositionActive then
begin
p := LastPosition;
if PositionLong( p ) then
begin
if LastBar( Bar ) then
SellAtClose( Bar, p, ‘EOD’ )
else
SellAtStop( Bar + 1, Lowest( Bar, #Low, 5 ), p, ‘Stop’ );
end;
if PositionShort( p ) then
begin
if LastBar( Bar ) then
CoverAtClose( Bar, p, ‘EOD’ )
else
CoverAtStop( Bar + 1, Highest( Bar, #High, 5 ), p, ‘Stop’ );
end;
end
else
begin
if not LastPositionActive then
begin
if (PriceHigh(bar) – PriceLow(bar)) < ATR(bar, 10) then
BuyAtStop( Bar + 1, Highest( Bar, #High, 5 ), ” );
end;
if not LastPositionActive then
begin
if (PriceHigh(bar) – PriceLow(bar)) < ATR(bar, 10) then
ShortAtStop( Bar + 1, Lowest( Bar, #Low, 5 ), ” );
end;
end;
end;
—————————————————

We work for a broker

Today I traded in not very active moments of the market, got into Gazprom when he was not standing at all. Only worked for a broker, did not lose or do anything, as a result, a lot of volume and +0.1% per day.

U-turns are not mine

Selling Gazprom and Lukoil all day at lunchtime today, waited for a pullback after such large candles. And you could buy and sit. In the end, the day -1% . Hurried and did not wait for the blockage. :cry: Here are a couple of rules : IN 1 the deal does not lose more 0.3% Don't catch reversals, before confirmation. If lost 0.5%, не торговать час При потери 1% close immediately. P.S. Even though NYSE is in the black :)

Second day at the MICEX

Not a bad day, of course, in the morning I went to -0.3% trying to sell Gazprom, but he didn't go, I had to buy it ) Traded Gazprom and Lukoil all day, did almost 1% from a depot, but lukoil walked away and didn't give me. In the end, the day +0.6% Some of my deals, it's not all and not entirely accurate :oops: Gazprom:

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