APK
Events / news that I missed, and which seemed interesting
***Possible merger of Uralkali and Silvinit. Say, such a monster will become number 2 after Potash himself. And if the latter is still bought, then honorary # 1 himself.
***It hardly matters to Argentina how high international wheat prices go in the wake of Russia’s export ban: its producers are unlikely to be able to cash in. (FT) Все как всегда. Not known, which drives up food prices more in short periods, short-term supply shocks, speculators or officials. ()
***Mining executives and analysts estimate that iron ore prices for the fourth quarter will drop by 10-15% and coking coal prices by 5-10%, pushing down steel prices or widening steelmakers’ profit margins. ()
****Argentina’s central bank on Thursday relaxed key monetary targets after overshooting annual goals for growth in monetary aggregates, heralding a stance that favours stoking growth over reining in inflation. Nothing special yet, но интересно.. ()
*** About the erroneous statement, that stock markets are rapidly losing their retail participants.
***Dynamics of mortgage lending in European countries. ()
*** McDonald's issues yuan-denominated bonds …. ()
*** . I agree, now everyone is contrarian, but as O'Neal recently pointed out correctly (if I'm not mistaken, it seems he) about the euro, this is somehow too much..
*** The name speaks for itself))
PotashCorp is not for sale, till
BHP Billiton made an offer to buy PotashCorp by
to which the EU received an answer: the BHP Billiton bid is nonbinding and "opportunistic."
the premium to the price turned out, a little less 20%.
now the question: so what does the market price display?)
(except as a starting point to make an offer)
it was always interesting to know, what average % Award(дисконта?) to the market price when buying companies.
Ukraine considers cap on wheat exports
By Roman Olearchyk in Kiev
Ukraine, one of the world’s top grain exporters, said on Wednesday it was considering a cap on wheat exports, a move that would put more pressure on surging global grain prices.
The announcement was made after Russia had intro duced a ban on grain exports until the end of the year following the devastation of its crops by the worst drought in a century. The World Bank has urged countries not to restrict trade in grain.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, managing director at the World Bank, said export bans threatened a repetition of the 2007-08 food crisis, when the cost of crops from corn to rice hit record highs and food riots broke out in countries from Bangladesh to Haiti.
“Export bans, while understandable from a national view, are counterproductive at the international level because they trigger hoarding and lead to further price distortions,” Ms Okonjo-Iweala told the Financial Times.
Kiev’s announcement was made after grain traders accused Ukraine’s government of having already imposed an informal blockage on grain exports through customs inspections and other administrative measures.
Ms Okonjo-Iweala sided with the traders’ complaints, saying: “Ukraine is implementing a new system of export certification, which is slowing down exports.”
European grain traders are worried that Kazakh stan, which has also been hit by drought, might res trict sales outside former Soviet Union countries.
Mykola Prysyazhnyuk, Ukraine’s agriculture minister, said on Wednesday that if the government imposed the export quotas, they would focus on wheat, to ensure the country’s food security. “They will be soft, targeted and agreed upon with grain traders,” he said. A decision could be reached by next week.
Wheat prices have paused after surging last week to a two-year high.
In Paris, European milling wheat traded at €205 a ton, after touching €236 a tonne last week. European wheat prices are still up 50 per cent since mid-June.
The focus on milling wheat would relieve the livestock industry, which relies heavily on Ukraine’s feeding barley. Kiev exported 6m tonnes of feeding barley last year, 35 per cent of the global trade of the grain. The cost of feeding barley in Europe has doubled over the past six weeks as traders fear the effect of lower production in Ukraine and the export ban in Russia, also a big exporter.
Ukraine’s harvest has been less badly hit by drought than neighbouring Russia and Kazakhstan, also a big regional producer. Ukraine expects to harvest just more than 40m tonnes of grain this year, down from about 48m tonnes last season.
But the heat has damaged the quality of the crop, reducing supplies of milling wheat, used to bake bread.
Ukraine’s governing coalition is struggling to build up a large enough reserve to keep bread prices stable before an October 31 election to regional legislatures.
Doing so is vital in preventing a backlash from cash-strapped citizens who were hit hard by last year’s recession.
agglutination
in April I was very interested in the idea of increasing prices for an agricultural product.
then it was discovered, that the same thing is getting more expensive in Ukraine and in the world: dairy, meat, sugar and vegetables / fruits.
in addition to Ukraine and of course India, a bright situation was also in Turkey.
in the end, nothing worthwhile came out and prices went down.
if anything, links to charts.
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copper and wheat have renewed interesting lows today.
I do not mind, I am for it. but somehow the market looks too doomed.
like at the beginning of 2009. but this is such a sentiment perception, and I always have problems with sampling)
China buys provisions for the first time since 2001 of the year
Like so: in order to bring down prices within the country, China had to intervene in the market, selling off reserves.
To restore reserves, and there is such a large-scale purchase.
The question is different: is it all or just the beginning?
In the trinity of corn / wheat / soybeans, prices are kept in this order.,
although wheat has broken a little support,
I still like her better.
on gas and national interests
no politics, it's not worth it. market! it's much more interesting.
national interest – these are healthy reactions to reality and a minimum of fantasies.
today we have added one stack 13%. ALKZ, coke. but they will say, that `` on the news about the cost of gas ''.
this is how it looks like this is on the news. do not judge strictly, stk young still:)
this is the whole story on a normal exchange. 15 minutes. gray vertical stripes – day separators.
and now the real reaction to the news. no kidding. STIR, chemist.
15 minutes. gray vertical stripes – day separators.
Just do, I have a difficult relationship with chemists.
IN 2008 I was very keen on grain, in going from 08 on 09 too. I did not believe in hunger and joked repeatedly with a primitive analysis about, that wheat will be on the highs already in 09. while in the fall 09 I was very bulish in wheat, By the way, like now, although before 600 unlikely to be able to sit out with someone. in general, repeatedly guessed the timing, it means there will be a megalap soon))
I also have a difficult relationship with STIR, the same as with KRAZ)) when no one needed them in February, I fought off colleagues with ideas, u-u-u, kraz bankrupt, u-u-u, yes styrene is generally dead, etc.. ie. it seems like my ideas came true, although they were built through a stump-knee, in the structure of kraz contracts, I have not seen, as well as their reporting, since 07, but the last time I thought about Russia and gas was in August 08.
Eventually. Kind of like bulish in agriculture, och. modestly, but the fact. A plus, fall in love with the stock.
But well, I just can't say, what will we see STIR on 250. so what? strategic issue. We break through 100, do buy, there is no need to look in books of wisdom and think a lot. Thinking the way you always need to, where close. Actually, what is our risk / reward. So here. In the period up to a year, i see nothing more than 1 to 3 (-20;+60). But on the short, you can trade somewhere 1 to 5 in the hope of lumbago. In general,, sit out at least as significant a loss due to the `` Kharkos articles" I don't see the point at close range.
fertilizers: stock dynamics in north america
I don't want to say anything meaningful.
downtick in November, nothing more.
phosphate
potash