12 September Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) will present its new products. About the long-awaited iPhone 8 only lazy didn’t write, and now, when is the presentation day known, tension among investors has grown to a maximum.
A little bit more 10 years ago the debut of the iPhone took place - an event, which is considered to be a defining moment in the world of consumer electronics. It not only determined the further fate of the corporation, created by Steve Jobs, but also influenced the lives of many tech investors.
Since the debut of the first iPhone, Apple shares have risen by more than 820%, in 12 more than once ahead of the index S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX).
But the stock market is a cruel place, and investors are interested in the future of the company, not the past. Therefore, before the next significant moment in the history of Apple, everyone is wondering: what are her prospects? Here are five pluses for buying stock immediately and five major cons..
Pros
Investor interest
After failing the previous two years, Apple has finally managed to regain investor confidence. In August, after the publication of its quarterly report, its stock jumped by 5%. Since the beginning of the year, the company's papers have added 40% and was about four times ahead of the S index&P 500. From the lows of May 2016, quotes rose by 80%. Resumption of growth
Resumption of growth
Понятно, почему Apple разочаровала инвесторов в 2016-м. First-ever drop in demand for the iPhone led to a decline in revenue. However, growth returned in 2017. At the end of the fiscal year, revenue is forecast to increase by 15%, profits - about on 20%. Successful New iPhone Launch May Benefit Company Results.
A strong argument in favor of buying shares is the continued growth in the segment of services.
Huge reserves
Apple has accumulated more than 260 $ billion in cash and liquid investments. The Undying Hope for US Tax Reform — and, more importantly, amnesty for the return of funds from abroad, - make this amount much more attractive. Кстати, even if Apple has to pay taxes at the rate 35% (no amnesty), she will have enough funds, to buy The Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) или Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO).
Growth of dividends
Instead of wasting money on takeovers, Apple may return them to shareholders. With 2012 year dividends increased by about 66%. Management has become more serious about returning capital to shareholders. It is also important, that the share of dividends in the projected profit for the next year is 25%, and the company has a lot of opportunities to improve them, not returning money from abroad or resorting to the help of the bond market.
Minuses
An unreliable story
Although Apple's success in previous 10 years is obvious, lately it has been showing less stable results, than you would like. This has happened before - and it ended badly.
In the period from 2015 to 2016, Apple shares fell by about 30%. In 2012-2013, the situation was even worse: котировки обвалились наполовину. Consistent results are not at all predetermined. Investors were convinced of this by their bitter experience., who bought Apple stock at the wrong time.
IPhone pressure
Shares of all companies are under pressure, but in the case of Apple, too much depends on the success of the new iPhone. The smartphone is responsible for 2/3 продаж компании, and the debut of a new generation usually leads to an increase in the share in the corresponding quarter.
Другими словами, September will be defining, at the same time, incredible optimism and expectations of the latter 12 months leave no room for mistakes. Sales cannot be affected by any delay in production, no flaws in the pricing policy (according to some rumors, iPhone will cost more $1000), no unforeseen interruptions to suppliers in Asia.
Remember the saying “buy rumors, продавай новости»? Возможно, Apple investors will have to check it out soon.
If Apple wants to achieve sustainable growth over the long term, she should reconsider her policy in China.
The curse of a large corporation
It's great to have the stability and scope of one of Wall Street's largest companies. However, it is also a recipe for stagnation and inefficiency.. As noted in the article, недавно опубликованной в Wall Street Journal, in recent 45 years the company with the largest capitalization as part of S&P 500 constantly lagging behind the index.
You can admire Apple's size, однако гораздо важнее задаться вопросом, is an 800 billion corporation able to increase its value by another 50-100%.
Problems in China
Viktoria Roy / Shutterstock.com Конечно, iPhone is very popular in the USA, and investors were delighted with the increase in demand in the last quarter. But the latest report showed sales in China fell by 10% — регионе, extremely promising for any company.
Apple is struggling to attract Chinese consumers, however, at the beginning of this year, its share of the local smartphone market declined, and is currently 9,6%. If Apple wants to achieve sustainable growth over the long term, she should urgently reconsider the policy in China.
Risks, index fund related
Показательно, that the largest corporations have lagged behind the broader market in the past, however, in an age of index funds and a herd mentality on Wall Street, the risks are even higher. What if investors get frustrated with stocks and start selling massively shares in index funds?, such as SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA: SPY) или iShares core S&P 500 (ARCA: IVV)? In the end, индекс S&P 500 weighted by capitalization, and Apple's share in it is 4%.
Transfer: https://ru.insider.pro/investment/2017-08-30/stoit-li-kupit-akcii-apple-pered-vyhodom-iphone-8/
