I decided to look again at the old COT format for ES.( e-mini).
Middle panel– no position of non-commercial traders
The bottom panel– short position of no-commercial traders.
Basically, there are periods, when the SHORTS are right and they accumulate positions in advance, that is, LAS until the moment the market falls. But there are also a couple of places , when they have to close because the market squeezes them. The first squeeze is shown, where is the white circle. Second squeeze end of 2010.
But they were right about 2007 and 2008,( yellow circle and point 2) after which the market failed. Moreover, pay attention to the dynamics of changes in position at the beginning of 2007. By March 2009, there was a reduction in shorts and an increase in longs even before the market began to recover..
Still, top and bottom correspond to extreme positions in most cases..