and again
It may seem like an overreaction to a few poor indicators. But markets tend to lead fundamentals and there are two other reasons to fear a double dip.
The first is that, even with near-zero interest rates, most developed economies have managed only tepid recoveries. What happens when a few hundred basis points are added to borrowing costs?
The second problem is circularity. Recent market panic could itself feed through to confidence and spending. With unemployment stubbornly high across Europe and the US – and housing moribund – it is easy to imagine shoppers pulling back. With consumption worth considerably more than half of output in many of the world’s biggest economies, investors are right to fear the second half of 2010 being brought to them by the letter W.