McKinsey promotes the Internet of Things. Almost half of IPOs bring losses.
Disclaimer: when we talk about, that something has grown, we mean a comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Since all issuers are from the USA, then all results in dollars. When creating the material, sources were used, inaccessible to users from the Russian Federation. We hope, Do you know, what to do.
Another IT feeder: McKinsey forecasts
The world-famous consulting company McKinsey shared with the general public a report on the prospects for the Internet of things. Here are some interesting facts and figures you can find there.
Benefit. By 2030, the development of this area will benefit the global economy in the form of reduced costs, increase in efficiency and new jobs by the amount of 5,5 to $12.6 trillion.
B2B sector and others. The lion's share of work in this area will be concentrated in the B2B sector - about 65%. The largest professional customer in this area will be the manufacturing sector — 26% from the entire growth potential in the field of the Internet of Things, there is a huge need for automation and integration of software on various devices. The second most important generator of demand will be the medical sector - 10-14%.
Developing countries. The share of the Western world in the structure of the economic potential of the Internet of things will fall: from 60% of the world level in 2020 to 55% by 2030. The growth of developing countries will occur mainly due to China, which will take 26%, the country is intensively developing a high-tech sector of the economy.
Distribution of tasks. By type of tasks to be solved, for whom the Internet of Things will be implemented, will dominate the optimization of operations - 41%, health care 15%, increasing the productivity of people - 15% and supervisory or supervisory operations — 12%. The steepest annual growth rates are expected in the field of self-driving cars – 37% per year before 2030.
The McKinsey report says, what, Firstly, the bet on automation in the stock market is fully justified. This sector is really waiting for a big growth., and it is driven by the need to optimize business operations. Actually, The whole point of the Internet of Things is automation..
Secondly, McKinsey itself is counting on, to participate in this process. Actually, The main goal of this report is to create for the current, former and potential clients impress, that “the Internet of things is a topic in general, it needs to be developed!», and write a fat check to McKinsey herself, which will advise customers on the development of this very Internet of things.
McKinsey is a humanitarian consulting - a thing much less marginal, rather than technological. For example, at one time, McKinsey had to take on a consulting contract with the South African housing and communal services giant Eskom, under which McKinsey was paid only if, if Eskom received real financial benefits from her recommendations. It is unlikely that any Accenture has entered into a contract to implement blockchain operations in a bank with the condition, that she will receive a fee, if the client sees the benefit of this solution.
In IT, performers have the opportunity to dictate prices and working conditions to customers, because the client often does not understand anything in technical details and cannot adequately assess the cost of services. apparently, McKinsey will try to develop a potentially more marginal area of technology consulting. Actually, the report devotes a lot of space to the analysis of problems, which companies will face, developing the Internet of Things, - like software incompatibility on different devices and other things. The report seems to hint at the target audience of McKinsey: "For the right price, we can help you unleash the full potential of the Internet of Things.".
For investors, this is a fertile field for speculation.. McKinsey and her colleagues are pumping up the internet of things, helping to increase the attractiveness of company shares, working in this area. A lot of investors will buy shares from this area without looking at the foundation of the companies' business, which means, it will be possible to make money on this.
Something went wrong: shares of just under half of new companies on the stock exchange fell this year
Dealogic researches major IPOs this year and shares analysis of the results with the Financial Times.
Dealogic evaluated the dynamics of company quotes, which this year were engaged in the placement of their shares on the UK stock exchanges, USA, India and Hong Kong. Only those IPOs were taken into account, during which companies raised at least a billion dollars. In total, Dealogic analyzed the history of quotes 43 companies.
As it turned out, Right away 49% of these issuers are traded below the IPO. This is quite a lot, even by the standards of previous years.: in 2019 33% companies that entered the IPO traded after some time below the placement price, in 2020 — 27%.
Such dubious "achievements" in 2021 are indicative against the background of the record growth of the main stock indices and the generally positive dynamics of the IPO.. This year, IPOs around the world were raised by about 330 billion dollars, which is a lot.
By idea, this can be considered an indicator, that there is a bubble in the market, which will soon burst. But I'll still be the devil's advocate and try to explain, why the results of the Dealogic study are not so sad, how one might consider.
Firstly, the picture was largely blurred by the pogrom of technology companies in the PRC, which caused a decrease in quotations of Asian issuers, IPOs this year. Their quotes fell simply due to the reshuffle of political priorities in the PRC..
Secondly, large private foundations, who were behind most of these IPOs, Most likely, sold a larger volume of shares of new companies, than originally planned. Maybe, this contributed to price instability, because for many years investors have pumped a lot of money into such funds in the hope of better results than stock indices - but the results of private funds on average did not greatly exceed the results of stock indices with high risks. So private funds were eager to get the most out of their investments., to sell your stake in these startups at a higher price, showing good results in reporting to their investors.
Thirdly, investors from all over the world live in constant expectation of raising rates and rising cost of loans. If a loss-making company has such an opportunity, it is better to take money from shareholders, rather than borrow from a bank. And since a significant part of IPOs are in unprofitable companies, then investors are justifiably afraid, that rising loan prices will make life harder for these loss-making startups.
So there is nothing terrible in Dealogic's revelations: still the same, as always. Another question is, what, maybe, it is worthwhile to carefully evaluate companies before participating in their IPO - and not invest in companies with a not very good business foundation.
