I definitely like it. Prices (for example) real estate to 2003 year could be explained by fundamental factors, only in Spain, Британии, Ireland and Australia prices have risen more than justified 1) низкими % ставками, 2) growth in bank lending and 3) growth in per capita income (IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2004).
this is all in continuation of the discussion about, Should the Central Bank pay attention to the dynamics of asset prices (And “пузыри”). since a bubble in asset prices is not so easy to fix, it probably should not be (although this is not the strongest argument against, asset price targeting has stronger negative effects). but, let me, we have a question..
to hell with them, with asset prices. если вы считаете, what fundamentals explain growth, let it be. but, was there a bubble in the fundamental factors themselves?? this is actually where the problem lies. But here the concept of potential GDP and macroeconomic equilibrium in general will come out sideways.
and this is how not to find the hicks boson. very scary, that I really don't want to get involved in all this…
PS.
I'll explain the idea with an example. there was such an argument (among other): property prices are rising (as for all asset classes) due to decreased macroeconomic volatility. now they say, that the argument was wrong. но почему? while everyone believed that, that the decrease in morovolatility – это навсегда – as long as the argument was correct. the question is, was there a question about, that the decrease in macro volatility – это на всегда, faithful at the very beginning?
it's like extrapolating Minsky's financial instability hypothesis beyond financial markets. the human brain is primarily a source of instability and cyclicality. because, that there are many baesy that make you see cause and effect relationships there, where they do not exist and extrapolate the past into the future. а финансовые рынки – it's just the cutting edge of human psychology.
so those who speak, that the whole problem in speculators is just as ridiculous, like those who count, that financial markets are extremely rational and, that there are no feedback mechanisms on financial markets. the problem is much deeper.