unexpectedly it turned out, what “ouch, but the volume of QE may not be as large as we all want”. about, God, the market falls for 1% on fears of low QE volume… all in all, or is it not a surprise for the market. or the market blindly believes in 2 trillion. you decide.
look at the price components of all kinds of PMI and smile. it's one thing when the breakdown grows and new issues of tips with negative profitability come out. another thing, when prices equalize in reality. then we look at the operational indicators and see how the slowdown took care of. the fed did his job, Fed can rest. joke. the economy was not planning to go into double dip by now, which I didn’t do. indignant summer alarms, au-u…
look at the Chicago PMI and keep in mind that, that he has more than 90% correlation с последующим ISM (so they say). ouch, was the market pledged to restore growth?. I'm not talking about crazy guys who sold sipi at 1k and bought off at 1.2k. here they are 3/4 rally. they have always been there. not growth – this is QE fallback. and QE – this is your insurance in case, if the macro doesn't line up. (will align, ie. will begin to level out. so more precisely).
and about the sad. judging by the components of US GDP, probability of quarterly <0 in one of the next two quarters remains. no need to dramatize like Rosenberg, but there are chances. I think, which is more likely in the first quarter, than in the fourth, although this is not typical. commercials with a probability of 25% (Sort of, if you guessed right – then “I told you”, if not, then “I didn't insist”).