It's hard to avoid the future.
Оскар Уайльд
One thing can be said with certainty about the future – we do not know what awaits us.. In the XX century, Americans actively invested in stocks, the main income was obtained due to changes in the exchange value of shares, and not dividends, the premium of stocks to bonds was quite significant., had a risk-free alternative to investment, witnessed significant changes in rates and suffered from inflation. apparently, the same awaits American investors throughout the XXI century. But, conclusions should not be rushed. Let's look for a start in the XIX century.
According to Dr's study. Bryan Taylor of Global Financial Data, dedicated to the profitability of shares, bonds and government securities worldwide, in the XIX century about the investments of American citizens can be said the following:
- most mainly invested in bonds;
- the return on investment in the stock was related to the dividend yield;
- the yield difference between stocks and bonds was negligible.;
- since the state did not guarantee its bonds and deposits were not insured, investors had no risk-free alternatives;
- bond yields and dividend yields have been declining for a century;
- prices have risen and fallen every year since 1815 on 1914 gg., there was no inflation in general.
From these facts it is very clearly visible., that the main investment conditions and trends of the XIX century were not repeated in the XX century. Most Americans invest in stocks, not bonds, the main income of shares is associated with an increase in the exchange rate, а не дивидендами, the premium of shares in relation to bonds is significant, investors have risk-free alternatives, investors for most of the twentieth century observed the rise in interest rates, inflation in the twentieth century was significant.
curious, that due to the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating for the first time in history, one of the conditions of the XX century, and, exactly, risk-free alternative in the form of the most reliable government bonds, may change. Let's see what the next decades will show.
Interesting, what awaits American investors in the XXI century? What trends and conditions will develop? How radically can they change?? How will this affect our investments and habits??
