the mood in Russia reminds me of last autumn with us, when if you say, that `` not everything is awful" or & quot; collapse / death /… not planned" looked at you, as a political agitator from certain forces :)
Original taken from in
According to the survey, what happens at the moment (voted 100 participants, there is a selection of some poll I have closed) – average weight – 1306. Which is, in general, plus minus current prices, a little higher. But the median is already – 1250, which is even lower. One topic – distribution is very non-symmetrical – despite the fact that the bulk – moderate optimists (1500-1750), so many pessimists, what's the mean 1300. From which I conclude that people in general are very bearish in relation to the normal state of affairs, usually optimists in stocks still prevail.
And this – global theme, on EM, all the creepy negativity suddenly became on the following topics:
Everything is clear here. Slowdown is, will eat, etc.. to probably some next incentive measures. But what, let me ask you, should be the mechanism for the transfer of trash and waste to the Russian Federation and other EMs? Through the demand for goods, of course, and their prices. For the Russian Federation, the most relevant – oil and sweat metals.
Oil is confidently holding higher so far 100, at the same time, for example, I was bearish based on the expectations of supply growth – but really not everything is so simple. Back in Iran, no growth happened. Growth in Iraq is less than planned. USA only harness, but there is a limit for now – they can only replace imports, but this is not much, export is prohibited by law in principle, now they mostly continue to build up stocks domestically. In general, everything is not so bad for oil, in general, so far, and the price behaves accordingly, let's see what happens by the end of the year. Plus, our oil workers will not lose much in the fall due to the arrangement of taxes., because. it will also be associated with a fall in the ruble and a reduction in duties.
Metals – well, everything is plus or minus in the ass, что-то больше, something less. But take the MICEX index – metals and mining. Plot the price in dollars. It is already at the October level of about 2008 of the year. From the peak in this short cycle, it has already fallen by 70%, plus or minus a penny. Considering the accumulated over the years 5 dollar inflation based on, say, the US gdp deflator, then this index is currently trading, I think BELOW in REAL terms, than at the bottom of the crisis 2008 of the year. What I'm sorry about waiting for something? That all Russian metallurgy and mining will go bankrupt ( well, let's put the sword on the way to success, кто еще?) and they will start paying extra for their shares? It does not seem, that the whole Chinese topic is a little priced in metallurgy?
And about the Chinese theme, even I have been writing here for a long time – I post constantly Chanosa and all that, and all smart money is even more in the subject. And now after 70% the fall of the same shares of metallurgists, everyone suddenly sharply realized, that China is slowing down and all that. Какая неожиданность, amazingly…
2. Potential tightening of monetary policy by global central banks.
Well, there are no comments at all – only a little dimming the wick is discussed in the most unprecedented stimulation, and in the media hysterics are, as if already went rate hikes everywhere. Now the market expects, what already in 2016 year fed funds will be a whole percentage! Before the crisis, if anyone remembers it – 5%. At the same time, until core pce is decently higher 2% will not raise the fed, ie. negative real rates await us for another three years minimum, and even more, based on the fact that the market is pricing now, in spite of all the movement in the rates of the current.
3. Local economic problems in EMs.
Here yes – credit boom, economic slowdown is strong and so on and so on in the Russian Federation. But at the same time – the ruble is already falling, will be in + eventually, the Central Bank has the space to cut rates, if the tariffs of the monopolies do not rise significantly, budget is still in 0-surplus, there is also space to stimulate. Not everyone is such a horror horror. Yet again – if you believe in local landing – sell local themes, what's the point of extinguishing if not into yourself the index, which is on 60+% consists of exporters, while still expecting a devaluation in parallel? Short banks, retail, etc.
Further – since the index targets were polled here. Many people generally understand what an index is and what they eat it with.? Well, not that type of index and index, and cho index, but with understanding, what index – it is a living organism, so to speak? The composition is changing and in such a country as in the Russian Federation it changes quite noticeably. Here is Gazprom in the ass with Metallurgists – прекрасно. And what capitalized value was created real during this time, for example, in Magnit and Novatek? To repeat the collapse ala 2008 – you expect the two best securities in the Russian Federation in their sectors to see this year at 80% And 90% below, respectively, for example?
If you go further through the sectors – MICEX Power is located exactly in the same place as metallurgists in relation to loyas 2008/2009 in currency. Which is much higher– Oil & Gas, finance, ритейл. About two times everything. But oil is also higher in 2 times too:), although our oil industry should not be so sensitive to its price… Retail finance – I already wrote once that if there is faith in trash and their frenzy, then it is necessary to short it then. But the paradox – all strategists still say they need to be overweight. For example, on the third day, the strategist of Sberbank CIB set a target for the end of the year on the RTS 1250 and said at the same time to cover all local stories… I don't know what he ate and drank before that, but how many people – so many opinions as they say.
The market, as they say, can remain irrational for a very long time.. And it is clear what to exclude altogether – nothing is allowed. But IMHO – if there is a bay below 1000, then it will be a buying opportunity global, comparable to spring 2009 of the year. And then I think this option is possible if oil prices add up strongly again, which has not yet been observed. In the meantime, anyway, it will be necessary to actively 1200 поторговать, yes and with 1300 not everything is clear a couple of days before the most massive ever expiration of derivatives.
