CNBC surveyed 400 managers and professional investors this week.. Most do not expect strong growth in stocks in 2022 and call inflation the main risk for the stock market.
What can hinder growth
More than half of those surveyed said, that the main cause for concern in 2022 is inflation. About a third noted a possible increase in interest rates at the wrong time. Only 17% called the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy the main obstacle.
For several months, the inflation rate in the United States has been hitting multi-year records. In November, the consumer price index rose by 6,8% - maximum since 1982. This rise in prices was driven by increased consumer demand, lack of supply, caused by disruptions in the supply chain, and other factors.
In December the chapter FED Jerome Powell Stops Calling Inflation Temporary, and the regulator itself announced a more rapid reduction in the stimulus program. The members of the commission also voted to raise the rate in 2022 to 0,9%.
The main risks
| Inflation | 53% |
| Interest rate | 30% |
| COVID-19 | 17% |
53%
Forecasts for 2022
30 December index S&P 500 rose to 4793 points. It's on 30% above, than at the beginning of 2021. According to respondents, stock returns in 2022 will be noticeably lower.
More than half of investors expect the index to rise by less than 10%. Only 18% expect double-digit growth, at 10-20%. Every tenth predicts zero dynamics.
Expectations S&P 500 by the end of 2022
| +20% and more | 2% |
| +10—20% | 18% |
| +0—10% | 55% |
| 0% | 10% |
| −0—10% | 13% |
| −10—20% | 2% |
| −20% and more | 0% |
2%
Where to invest
Poll, professional investors still make the main bet on stocks, including high inflation.
About a third preferred investments in companies from the financial sector, 27% — in cyclical companies, who will benefit from economic recovery. Major tech companies have chosen 15%, fast-growing innovative 13%.
Company rates
| Financial | 35% |
| Cyclic | 27% |
| Technological | 15% |
| Innovative | 13% |
| Consumer | 10% |
35%
