Hello! Markets are falling! What to do? Today we will analyze what's what and draw conclusions.
Geopolitics comes to the fore again. The West is actively looking for reasons, to impose more sanctions. And there are many reasons: weapons in space and missile testing, threat of invasion of Ukraine, migration crisis. As always, Russia is to blame for everything. The result is a decline in the Russian market and a weakening of the ruble this week., especially on friday, when oil prices fell and there was negative rhetoric from the United States towards Russia, in particular, to Putin.
Oil has declined this week for several reasons. Firstly, Joe Biden speaks to the largest oil consumers, including to China, India and Japan, with a request to release some of the strategic crude oil reserves, to bring down world oil prices. Secondly, European countries are introducing hard lockdowns again, which is negative for the demand for oil and the economy as a whole. Oil prices are cheaper for the first time since September 80$ and now Brent is standing 78,47$.
Germany suspends Nord Stream certification - 2. Gas prices in Europe jumped sharply against this background. But this is not related to sanctions, the problem is in the legal form of the project. Want to create a new German subsidiary, which will be the owner of the German part of the gas pipeline. Gazprom wins anyway: the suspension of certification causes a strong increase in gas prices, and the launch of the gas pipeline increases gas exports.
Among the positive news is the IPO of the SPB Exchange. On the first day of trading, the stock rose by 10,96% and stopped at the mark 12,76$. Let me remind you, what the IPO was for the price 11,5$. This is my first IPO, as strange as it sounds. Good start, let's see, what will be the dynamics in the future. For example, CIAN also grew at first after the IPO, and now it falls on 14,24%. If the stock goes down, I will take, because. the company is cool with great prospects.
But Alibaba disappointed with the released report. The report itself is not bad, but it did not meet the expectations of investors, even despite the increase in revenue by 29%. Net profit decreased by 87%. The company has cut its revenue growth forecast for the current fiscal year from 29,5% up to 20-23% yoy. Promotions 18 November fell on 11,13%. The company is negatively affected by the cancellation of the IPO of the fintech subsidiary of Ant Group, record antitrust fine in $2,8 billion and a general tightening of regulation of the IT industry in China.
Returning to the Russian market, as i wrote, it goes down this week. MOEX Index -2,55% – There is nothing wrong, even good, that shares are getting cheaper and there is an opportunity to buy more shares for the same amount. Which is a little frustrating, so this is my portfolio decline -3,13%, which is much more than the drop in the index. The main role in the fall of the oil industry. Therefore, the gap between my portfolio and index returns is narrowing to 16,95%, although it remains in favor of my portfolio.
Stocks in the portfolio are mostly red., which is logical. Raspadskaya falls the most (-10,2%), because. coal prices in the world continue to fall rapidly and have almost reached average values in recent years.
The leaders of the fall are also the entire oil industry, except for Gazprom and Gazpromneft. Everything falls due to the decline in oil prices, This is clear. But, as I wrote above, Gazprom benefits from Nord Stream and European gas prices, which remain at high levels due to the suspension of project certification. Gazpromneft has an excellent report, plus investors expect big dividends, what keeps stocks from falling.
Despite the threat of sanctions, VTB shares rose slightly this week (+0,3%). For comparison, Sberbank falls by 5%. The reason is, that VTB sold its stake in Magnit at a price 5700 rub. VTB owned 29,1% shares of Magnet and sold 17,28%. The bank will help out more 100 billion. rub. while, what did you spend on the whole package 138 billion. rub. Good profit. Well, Magnet, obviously, falls on 9%, because. the share price before the sale was 6500 rub.
I would like to, so that the fall of the indices continues next week. If the Moscow Exchange index falls by at least another 1,5%, then at the end of November I will buy shares at 20 thousand for the first time since October last year. To many, this may seem unpleasant and even masochism., but personally I want to buy shares cheaper, and not at maximum prices.
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