Hello everybody! What events happened this week and where is the market going? Let's figure it out today. Like the post and let's go!
News of the world of financeNews of the world of finance
The main news of the week for the Russian market is the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank immediately on 0,75% to 7,5%. The decision is unexpected, because. analysts believed the increase in the maximum on 0,5%. The main reason for this is accelerating inflation., expectations for which according to official data 7,4-7,9%. In fact, certainly, at least one and a half times higher.
The rate hike sharply strengthened the ruble, which for the first time since June 2020 G. decreased lower 70 rub. The rate is higher - rubles in the economy becomes less, accordingly, the ruble is strengthening. By the end of the year, it is very likely, that the rate will not be lower 8%. Inflation is, of course, will not reduce, because now there is stagflation – inflation + lack of production growth. When rates are raised, production will decline even more, because. loans will become more expensive. And inflation as growing, and will continue to grow, while "uncles" from FED The US will not calm down and stop printing money and buying assets.
The economy and the welfare of the population is hit not only by inflation, but also another unplanned weekend in Russia and lockdown in Moscow, which was announced on Thursday. Yet again, as the experience of last year showed, it will not help in any way in the fight against the problem at all, but it will hit small and medium-sized businesses hard, some of which will simply close. But big corporations and ecosystems are happy here., which thus capture market share, because. lockdowns for them are not terrible.
Finally, bad news was this week for Rusal, shares of which this week fell by 6,5%. American TV channel NBC reported on the search in the house of the company's founder Oleg Deripaska in Washington on Tuesday. The searches were based on two court warrants., related to U.S. sanctions. Investors remember, that after the sanctions 2018 G. the company's shares could not grow until now. Although, the next sanctions will be a good opportunity to buy shares at a cheap price for the future.
As we see, there is no good news this week. So the indices couldn't go anywhere., other than, way down. Index of MosBirzha at the end of the week -1,52%. My portfolio IIS -2,06% or -13 131,19 in rubles. Correlation with index is obvious.
The portfolio is supported by dividends and coupons. This week there were dividend payments from Raspadskaya 1 201 rub. As well as coupons on bonds Shevchenko and Taxovichkof in total 1 600 rub. Just approaching the end of the month, and all these payments will be used to purchase new shares on IIS.
Let's look at the situation separately on shares. The leaders of the decline in the shares of the Moscow Exchange (-8%), although there was no news or reports on it. Theoretically, the higher the rate of the Central Bank, the more people keep money in deposits and trade less in the market. Hence the reduction of the company's commission fees.
Alrosa's shares are also falling strongly. (-7,7%). First of all, the dividend gap on Monday participated in this., and as we remember, Alrosa's dividends are now ultra-high. Only for half a year 6,4% per annum. But after the cut-off, the stock continued to fall., because. the next dividend is still far away and unclear, how the situation will be in the future.
Sberbank shares are declining, Gazprom, Inter RAO after rapid growth in previous weeks. The increase in the rate of the Central Bank as a whole makes deposits in banks more attractive and causes some outflow of money from the stock exchange.
Perhaps, the only growing shares were metallurgists, due to the rising price of metal on the world market. Together with them, the shares of gold mining companies came to life., growth for which more 5% this week, although I have them on another briefcase.
Despite the negative news and the decline in the market as a whole, investment portfolio as a whole (not just IIS) now at highs. Diversification by stocks and bonds, plus gold miners' shares, mutually compensate each other and balance the portfolio.
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