green trade profitability, red – Bunds.
And из FT:
So should investors run out and buy Bunds? Probably not. Yes the Bund market has performed admirably in recent years, but the favorable factors are well recognised and are arguably already reflected in the price. More importantly, choices being made by policymakers in Brussels and Berlin are making Bunds less attractive prospectively. Those factors have been ignored during the rush into a perceived “safe haven.”
First, the German taxpayer is standing behind more than just Germany’s debt. The bail-out of Greece – launched jointly by the EU and IMF – with a €110bn support package, followed by the broader €750bn European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism will be disproportionately financed by Germany. While these support packages are understandable from a financial stability perspective, they challenge the notion that German taxpayers stand behind Bunds – and nothing else.
Second, the recent European Central Bank decision to buy bonds of weaker European countries – €40.5bn and counting – raises questions about the future of the ECB’s balance sheets, the euro, and in extremis about who would recapitalise the ECB should it absorb losses on its holdings.Germany would have to pick up a disproportional part of the bill.
Third, although Germany’s budget looks outwardly strong, contingent claims lurk beneath the surface. In particular, the banking system almost certainly is saddled with losses not yet recognised. The true condition of the Landesbanks (and other financial institutions) is less than transparent. As those losses are recognised, the banks will need large amounts of capital to meet new EU (and Basel) capital standards. The money is very likely to come from the government.
Finally, the Bund market is expensive. Real yields (nominal bond less the inflation rate) are about 1.5 per cent, half the historical average. In short, compensation for holding Bunds is poor relative to the risks.