Win #1
1) in 2007-2008 nothing bad happened (“the crisis came from America”)
2) if it happened, then ЕМ will grow according to the growth trend of potential GDP
3) Potential GDP EM is obtained from labor + capital + technologies (institutional factors = fairy tale)
4) eventually, risky assets will rise. and there will be inflation. high.
Win #2
1) developed countries may not grow for a while
2) this is politically unacceptable, will actively stimulate. monetary.
3) no balance problem. “money printing” increases denmass. and will give inflation. high.
4) money will depreciate in relation to non-money. risky assets on a horse.
(stocks will lag first, they tolerate inflation poorly in a short period)
And so inflation, and so inflation.
Well well.. We went through this two years ago.
I just want to say, that inflation is a monetary phenomenon,
but there is such a funny thing as the inefficiency of the economy, shock offers..
Look at India for example. And then on EM CPI without India.
By the way, and what is the reason for the agricultural growth this year? Ethanol again?))
Or did it QE manage to stay in reserves, but will seep,
like Stirlitz to the secret factory for the production of felt boots?
