7 ноября центр Digital October провел лекцию-телемост c Richard Peterson - behavioral economics expert и сторонником алгоритмической торговли, putting mathematical models and quantitative methods of analysis above the opinions of market experts.
Today he successfully combines a career as a scientist, teacher, financial advisor and manages investments of friends and acquaintances on the stock exchange, using new media monitoring technology, collecting and analyzing the sentiments of thousands of small and large economic agents. Since 2012, this system is known as Thompson Reuters MarketPsych Indices, but Peterson invented it back in the late 1990s.
Альтернативная запись
- how our brain works, when we make decisions about, where to spend money, and what does this decision ultimately depend on,
- how strong is the psycho-emotional state (stress, fear, hope) can affect the riskiness of your investments and the economy of entire states,
- about typical mental traps, interfering with making optimal financial decisions,
- which month of the year is always the most "optimistic" for investors, and which is the most "aggressive",
- how Twitter and Facebook help traders make more money on price changes
- and how knowledge of oneself and the psychology of the crowd helps to become a “smart investor” and even partially compensate for ignorance of the market.
Once upon a time, received an engineering degree with honors, Richard did not rest on his laurels and continued his education, choosing medicine. To this he was prompted by an interest in the rapidly developing areas of neuro- and behavioral economics.
Вместе с несколькими коллегами он основал компанию MarketPsych, which trained traders, fund managers and investment bankers "emotional management" - decision-making taking into account psychological and social factors, able to influence market variables.
Soon, the company's income was enough, to hire a team of programmers, developed a monitoring system for Internet publications: she took orders every day 2 millions of thematic posts from blogs, Media and social networks and analyzed their emotional color. Evaluating the mood of Internet users and their reactions to certain news and even rumors allowed Peterson to provide clients with often accurate recommendations., for which shares, futures and bonds pay attention soon.
Becoming a Doctor of Medical Sciences, в начале 2000-х Ричард принял participation in the Stanford research group. Building on the legacy of neoclassical economists, behaviorists and physiologists (including the great Pavlov), scientists have set themselves the goal of understanding, how an individual evaluates expected utility, which von Neumann wrote about in Game Theory ..., and also how the brain functions, when the investment decision is made.
By developing a series of experiments, simulating the game on the stock exchange, using functional MRI, they measured the neural activity of the subjects' brains, and also recorded, which parts of the cortex are involved in changing the emotional state of a person.
Research results, опубликованные в 2005 year, brought Peterson credibility in the academic environment, and his next work is media and mass audience recognition.
IN 2007 году он выпустил Inside the Investor’s Brain – по сути, step-by-step instruction on independent "financial psychoanalysis", containing a set of methodologies for improving money management skills and responding to market changes. The book was in demand, Richard began to be invited to the broadcasts of large TV (CBS, BBC) and radio stations, and his comments began to appear in The Wall Street Journal, Harvard Business Review и Financial Times.
Three years ago, another book came out from under his pen., co-authored by the second founder of MarketPsych, Frank Mutra. Combining the latest scientific discoveries in neuroeconomics with the experience of successful investors, они выпустили How to Manage Fear and Build Your Investor Identity.
On this topic:
It is worth noting, Richard and his colleagues are not the only ones, who pointed out the applicability and huge potential of using a cut of not always expert opinions to predict the state of stock markets and economies of entire states.
Indiana University studies have shown, that relying on Twitter posts alone, can be accurate to 86.7% predict, how the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will change in the next three days.
А в Standard & Poor’s, for example, recognize: to better feel the mood of the new generation of consumers, analysts interview children of company employees, coming to work with their parents.
Lecturer Facts:
* В разгар мирового финансового кризиса-2008 компания MarketPsych основала хедж-фонд (private foundation with an initial contribution of at least $5 million, недоступный широкому кругу лиц), which Richard ran, relying on our own mathematical models.
* Входил в редакционный совет академического издания Journal of Behavioral Finance.
* В качестве приглашенного профессора преподает в Клермонтском университете. Also lectured at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and UC Berkeley.
