high probability is not equal to certainty. this is from the series, that we overestimate the likelihood of high probability events and underestimate the probability of low probability events.
uncertainty varies. we can very accurately know the probability of life expectancy, but we do not know anything about the likelihood of a financial collapse. economic past – it is not a collection of different independent events, when, based on the frequency of occurrence of a recession, it is possible to determine its probability. economic history – this is one big solid sample. chain of related events, not a lot of isolated experiments.
based on Neil Ferguson.
это я к тому, that we don't know anything about, what will happen in 50 years for example.
if we think, What We Know, then we immediately remember the golden rule about `` the ability to distinguish one from the other ''. Togo, that you can change the other, what to accept.
and this is all to that, that from something similar to WW1 no raw materials, gold, etc. and so on. won't save anyone.
there is no hedge from Armageddon.
PS.
By the way, even before Kahneman-Tversky conducted very funny experiments.
