In half of the cases, a human trader guesses the direction of movement of a trading instrument.. Doesn't guess in half.
It turns out that in half of the cases he will buy below, will sell higher and earn. Half of the time will buy higher, sell below and lose.
Probability of winning – 50% (50x50).
But since he puts his feet, then in half of the cases, despite the fact that he guesses the direction, stop loss is triggered — trader теряет деньги и цена уходит в угаданном направлении, but without a trader. In the case when you did not guess the direction — stop is always triggered. That is, the probability of winning, Which was 50%, halve.
The probability of winning is already getting 25% (25х75).
Even when the trader guesses the direction of movement, the price reaches the target only in half of the cases, and half turns back and the trader loses money again. So the probability of winning is 25%, once again we divide in half..
The probability of winning is already 12,5% (12,5 X 87,5)
Trading costs in the form of commissions and slippage can no longer be discussed……
