What to trade — SP500 futures or RTS index futures? Not an easy question — need to thoroughly study the specification of the tools, compare liquidity, price step size, collateral, find out from insider sources who and why move prices on these instruments, and study a lot of different things, associated with these two famous futures instruments. After such a thorough and productive artillery preparation, we make a choice and… — forward with a bayonet at the ready to conquer the peaks of the SP500 or RTS.
Things are good, all the way, but a logical question arises — and what is our advantage over other participants in these markets, why did we decide that someone would give us their money just because we deliberately chose this market and decided to trade it? Zero-sum game — if someone won, then someone has lost the same amount. And if you consider that, according to all financial laws, all money from 80% ordinary participants usually spill over to 20% chosen, it turns out that by deliberately choosing the market and not having any advantage over other participants, probability of losing money, at least equal 80%.
Here, for example, I have a magic program, which shows, how, if i were in 2006 year would start playing the system on SP500, then what result would i get, for example, to date. Having chased through this program 9857005 systems, I found that the results for ALL systems would be disappointing. I.e, it turns out that if I started playing any of these systems on the SP500, then by today would have already been left without money. Certainly, you can trust the theory that nothing is ever repeated on the market and the same system starting with 2011 on 2014 year, maybe, will bring fame and fortune. But somehow I don't really want to tempt fate, despite the fact that I thoroughly studied this market and know EVERYTHING about it, well, or almost everything, And, even though he is so prestigious, liquid, legendary, famous and, at all, just super :)
Further — go to RTS futures. Similar, driving on this instrument 9857005 system, found out that 9857002 of them would make money if I started playing them with 2006 of the year. The result is impressive and encouraging. But, yet again, if you trust the theory that nothing on the market repeats itself, then starting today you can earn nothing. Yes, and somehow it is not entirely prestigious to trade the RTS, at least, compared to SP500, plus permanent technical overlays on the exchange, unpredictability of regulators, yes and in general, country risks — what if some Zhirinovsky thinks to privatize and divide everything… and all… and not to see the rubles earned in blood and sweat through systemic trade….
That's why, the conclusion suggests itself — Is it really necessary to approach the choice of instruments on which you want to trade in this way?? Interesting moment — here I am, personally, I know almost nothing about Palladium and Cotton futures at all, except that they are traded on exchanges — And, Nevertheless, over the past year, they brought me the largest increase in money of all traded instruments…..
