Привожу дневной schedule SPX, to visualize what to expect in the time zone of 19 March-8 April.
19 Martha, as i assumed, turned out to be a critical day, judging by the magnitude of the fall in comparison with the previous activity. Momentum stopped at the intersection of the vertical line 19 March and purple mini trend line. I personally underestimated, that it should have happened at the mark 1170, thought, which is too early to storm such heights. Assuming, that we have formed a candlestick formation, talking about local top, then support lines immediately appear when a rollback from these heights.
Obviously, what a high-speed uptrend line( Green colour) is the main support, as well as the horizontal line of the previous local top in the area 1150-1152. In case of closing below the intersection of these lines, a target for a more substantial support line will open, bottom line of the ascending channel( purple line).
One of the negative scenarios is a rollback to the vertical dotted line( fibo zone) this is the area 8 April.
Considering, that the support lines are dynamic, then the tentative goal of such a scenario is to 8 April == 1130.
Надо также отметить, that SPX has climbed a bit high relative to many MAs and therefore MAs themselves will be supports and one of the targets of a pullback.
Undoubtedly, that this scenario is likely in the absence of any super positive news.
Sunday brings us a vote in Congress and therefore this news risk could create an unpredictable reaction in the market..
Надо также отметить, that the end of the quarter is usually tried to close on a positive note window dressing. But the first week of April may be more negative.
As for the MICEX index, then i don't like, that the index is still not above the level 1455-1460 and below the trend line( green Line) while , что уровень RSI высок и выше 75. This is considered negative divergence.. Therefore, in the event of a correction in the foreign market, testing the area 1300 becomes highly probable.
The weekly chart also clearly shows RSI divergence.
It should be noted, that the flagships of the Russian market show divergences.
With regard to Gazprom, everything has been said before and remains relevant, you can see the charts in the Gazprom tag. If there are no intercessors in Gazprom, then it will be possible to witness the mark 150.
Sberbank, although better than Gazprom, but there are divergences on the weekly chart. And if 90 will remain a stumbling block, then " spring unwinding" to the area 55-60 quite likely(this is a pessimistic scenario).
