Everyone already knows about the Silver bubble. The whole question, when it will burst, today or it will come to 100, maybe more. Here, for example, I have Silver open 3 positions on three trend-following systems. None of them have take profit, that is, the accumulated profit is always given before the position is closed by the stop. If I knew, that the summit is coming soon, it would be possible to simply fix the profit — even if it grows more dollars by 5-10, anyway, the stop will close lower than if you fix right now. Can, certainly, just stick strictly to the system and not jerk — where will it close, there it will close. But still, the case is unusual — has grown very much and may collapse even faster and you will have to give too much of the accumulated profit.
Everything is clear about System # 1 — there are rather dense feet — losses will be small. But according to System No. 2 it looks like this:
WLD6 has a useful utility called Position Life Time" — the percentage scale reflects all positions in the system for 25 years:
Today's position is indicated by a blue line, which is already more 50%. It is seen, that in the history of this system there was already a trade in which the top reached 50%, and then I gave it 25% accumulated profit. Therefore, it may be time to take profit today or tomorrow.?
According to system no. 3, which is more than twice as long as the second system, the situation is:
Here, at all, if Silver goes down like a stone, then more than half of the accumulated profit will be given. But, On the other hand, if it goes up for a long time to 100, just adjusting from time to time, then you can go very far and the feet will pull themselves up by themselves at least to 80. :)
A & quot; life time" positions on this system looks like this:
Today's position is indicated by a blue line, which came up to 40%.. It can be seen that there were two trades in the history of the system., when profits increased to 60 And 70%, but then gave profit to 40%. So that, in theory, you can close manually if the profit grows to 60%.
Here's a dilemma. You can do nothing, let the systems decide, but I remember how very successfully I recently closed at the very top on Khlopok in a similar situation. But you can’t always be lucky, and this time you can go cheap and miss the bubble of the century., if he's still on 100-200% will develop, but you won't be able to re-enter :)
This is not a question or a demand for advice.. These are just my thoughts on this matter, expressed in doubt :)
