Yesterday, I guess, it was such a day. Driving home, часов в 11 evenings – accident on the bridge, eight or nine cars. How did they manage to get so caught up in, with half-empty roads, on three lanes one way – unclear. On the porch to the house, look – trolleybuses are in a row – crash again. No one looked, sunspots, may be? Or tests of an unknown emitter? What a mass insanity? Well, the market behaved accordingly :)
PS Buy Euro and Gold, at such levels, certainly, madness, but upward movement is still possible, seems to be.
After some calculations, we get a theoretical target for gold in the raion 1340-1350.But goals do not always reach theoretical, and sometimes overshoot, but nevertheless the level zone is exactly there.
When you read a review, then it seems, what a book about gold prospecting, dramatic stories of fanatical desire for gold, gold manias and gold beetles.
In my mind, this is a book about monetary history. Yes, in the book and myths, and how where who and why was looking for gold, how did you get it. About Newton as the Head of the Mint, finally. But all this is more likely through the prism, structured trends and economic details. Yet again, For me, this is a tutorial, not artistic, business or some other literature.
All in all, if you are afraid that you will be in the American style 30 pages on examples from the life of animals to explain, what is the gold standard, then it's not here. Serious, Solid, structured book prompting many interesting and useful thoughts.
, who created the first real gold coin and mint. It was then that gold became a retail commodity., ie. appeared in ordinary people. This is where the skyrocketing demand for gold begins.. Then Persians and Romans appear on the horizon. The Romans have their first coin devaluation.
2. No fun comes to the Roman Empire and we go to Byzantium, where does the Middle Ages dollar appear" . A little later, Arabs and gold mining in Africa appear on the map of globalization. All in all, while life is quiet in the west, trade developed in the east and, what's important, international trade. The demand for gold is on the rise, loot too Many interesting details but no more. well, certainly, Italians are making progress, progress in banking and international settlements.
3. IN 14 the century, the fun is suspended due to a series of crop failures and the plague. Say, that the population has decreased by a third, but after adapting to the spike in food prices, survivors feel richer by sharing the wealth of the dead. Subsequently, prices remained stable so, how the decline in food demand offset the decline in production due to the decline in population (and the rural population in particular). But the subsequent recovery leads to `` The great bullion famen 15 century" – an acute shortage of gold pushing for adventurous projects to find it (well and on finding a road to India).
4. Discovered America and beyond. Gold flows to Europe, the famous 'price revolution' takes place. There are three interesting things here..
* first from me. it was not such a rise in prices. actually you need to ask, but I will venture to rummage through the data in a hurry. despite the revolution, the rise in prices itself was not terrible, it was terrible, that people have not seen this before. modern Ukrainians their 'revolution" as a routine.
* Monetarism 16 century. Think, that people used to be stupid very naive. People tried to explain the rise in prices. And rising demand and supply shocks, and monetary phenomenon. Meet – , the person who talked about, that the problem is the flow of gold. But! The idea was perceived as follows: prices are rising, that's why we are looking for gold so actively and so actively we are bringing it to Europe. Basically, modern primitive monetarists have a lot to learn from this mistake. Prices are rising – because the money supply is growing! OK, why is the money supply growing? well, because they print! Why do they print? well, because, that state is evil! Down with! Burn! Disperse! Give anarchism! well,Do you understand me.. Spain in 16 century.
* Spain, as an example of failure. To the question, what happened to spain, why did she bent, there is a simple answer. Nothing happened, it was she who accidentally rose due to the influx of gold without any special reason. While the dynasty rode a roof from the influx of gold, progress (commercial and economic) passed by.
5. The fight between gold and silver. Many funny stories about trying to establish a stable exchange relationship between two currencies. The story about, how Newton got interested in economics and finance, gave recommendations for changing the ratio, but he was let down by the eternal: the future is not equal to the past.
6. The Gold Standard. He established himself only in 19 century, and how talented people of the end of the same century celebrated: was not the cause of stability, and its consequence. What follows is the book's most remarkable thought. (about the gold standard): during booming economic growth, economic success masks all the mistakes of regulators, and the very imperfection of the standard. Next is the story about, how different countries at different times struggled with the outflow of gold by increasing rates and how this did not always lead to something useful.
That, what Soros managed to do with the Bank of England, everyone knows: will the Fed be able to do the same with Soros?? What goes around comes around. With so much gold , you can find yourself without not 1 billion dollar Truth, in the personal portfolio of about 600 million dollars position.? Sharp rise in dollar. This is within the power of the Fed., or maybe the Bank of England gets its vindication. How bloodthirsty I am, horror !!! :))
high probability is not equal to certainty. this is from the series, that we overestimate the likelihood of high probability events and underestimate the probability of low probability events.
uncertainty varies. we can very accurately know the probability of life expectancy, but we do not know anything about the likelihood of a financial collapse. economic past – it is not a collection of different independent events, when, based on the frequency of occurrence of a recession, it is possible to determine its probability. economic history – this is one big solid sample. chain of related events, not a lot of isolated experiments.
based on Neil Ferguson.
это я к тому, that we don't know anything about, what will happen in 50 years for example. if we think, What We Know, then we immediately remember the golden rule about `` the ability to distinguish one from the other ''. Togo, that you can change the other, what to accept.
and this is all to that, that from something similar to WW1 no raw materials, gold, etc. and so on. won't save anyone. there is no hedge from Armageddon.
PS. By the way, even before Kahneman-Tversky conducted very funny experiments.
I also bought a block of shares in the morning on the cheap for a very short time (falling knives), so far in positive territory:
Long for gold futures and short for Nikkei and Russell2000 were opened using the trend following system. Soybean flour long opened on the short-term system.
Everything, what's worth it, to have it in life, deserves it, to work for him. Andrew Carnegie Success only comes to those, who acts. He very rarely comes to those, who gives in to circumstances. Jawaharlal Nehru Success is never complete, and defeat is never final. Dr. Robert Schuller I Adore, when they tell me, that I cannot do it ... because all my life I see, how wrong they are, Believing, that I won't even try! Ted Turner Great thoughts speak only of the wisdom of the mind that generates them., and great actions are about the rulers of the destinies of mankind. Emily P. Bissell We see unfavorable circumstances in front of us only when, when we lose sight of our main goal. Henry Ford.
