Gold

What Will You Sow, Then And You Reap…

Came back from a run, and here….  Merges on shares, mostly, System # 3 for shares, but it recovers faster than all systems. Here is an example of an FTO stock closed today:

Well, we continue to reap the benefits of futures, sown earlier, mostly, for Systems No. 1 and No. 2. The third and fourth systems are still holding. Here are the most interesting episodes.

Gold Futures:

Gasoline Futures:

Australian Dollar Futures:

Coffee Futures:

Well what can I say….

Well what can I say, if all shorts work especially in copper and oil, today!!!
Silver closed , and the gold left the baby.

Small Correction

Despite the fact that stocks are falling today, By a lucky chance, I had a lot of shares from the gold-silver sector. Lucky. HL has already closed by take profit 10%. Next in turn AGQ and SLW.

Midnight Inspiration (Unobtrusive Trading Recommendations)

Risk Disclosure Statement

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO TRADE OR TO AUTHORIZE SOMEONE ELSE TO TRADE FOR YOU, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING: IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS. IF YOU PURCHASE OR SELL A COMMODITY FUTURE OR SELL A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE INITIAL MARGIN FUNDS AND ANY ADDITIONAL FUNDS THAT YOU DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER TO ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF THE MARKET MOVES AGAINST YOUR POSITION, YOU MAY BE CALLED UPON BY YOUR BROKER TO DEPOSIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MARGIN FUNDS, ON SHORT NOTICE, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF YOU DO NOT PROVIDE THE REQUESTED FUNDS WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED TIME, YOUR POSITION MAY BE LIQUIDATED AT A LOSS, AND YOU WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY RESULTING DEFICIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT. UNDER CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS, YOU MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO LIQUIDATE A POSITION. THIS CAN OCCUR, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE MARKET MAKES A “LIMIT MOVE.” THE PLACEMENT OF CONTINGENT ORDERS BY YOU OR YOUR TRADING ADVISOR, SUCH AS A “STOP-LOSS” OR “STOP-LIMIT” ORDER, WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS, SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS. A “SPREAD” POSITION MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN A SIMPLE “LONG” OR “SHORT” POSITION. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.

THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT DISCLOSE ALL THE RISKS AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT ASPECTS OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY STUDY COMMODITY TRADING BEFORE YOU TRADE, AND DETERMINE IF COMMODITY TRADING IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU.

Risk Warning

The risk of loss when trading goods can be significant. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether this type of activity is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.. When considering TRADING or allowing someone else to trade for you, you should know the following: if you buy the PRODUCT option, you may incur a loss in the amount of PREMIUM AND of all operating costs. IF YOU BUY OR SELL FUTURE PRODUCT OR SELL PRODUCT option, you may incur a loss in the amount of the initial deposit and any additional funds, which you contribute with your broker to create or save your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker Deposit significant additional margin, in short time, in order to maintain their position. IF you do not provide the requested funds within the specified time period, your position can be liquidated at a loss, and you will be responsible for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. It can happen, for example, when the market does “ MOVE LIMIT.”PLACING orders by you or your advisor, such as “”stop-loss or “ stop limit”to order , will not necessarily limit your losses, ASSIGNED AMOUNTS, As market conditions may make it impossible to fulfill such orders. “ DISTRIBUTION”position could not be less risky, than just “ LONG”or “ short position”. High shoulder level, which often get in the commodity trade can work against you, so as for you. Using borrowed funds can lead to large losses, since profit.

This concise statement cannot disclose all risks and other important aspects of the commodity markets.. Therefore, you should carefully study commodity trading BEFORE TRADING, and define, if commodity trading is right for you.

Long-term perspective on gold

Hello. Here I am looking at the gold, I look and think – so, what is next? Up or down? Over the past decade, this metal has increased in value from 260 dollars to 1430 per troy ounce, that is in 5.5 Times. It looks like another global bubble, which periodically happens to one or another object of the capital market. Now on […]

Intuit everyday life.

Prologue.
For [info]crazy_trade
…100% per month, this is reality… and even 200…

Archimedes was overwhelmed by the joy of unexpected discovery, and he screaming “Эврика!”, rushed out naked into the street.

Weekdays.
I will summarize the intermediate result of three-week testing. As I already wrote, there was a certain approach, in most cases giving profit, but sometimes not giving. Besides, the criteria for taking profit or loss were not clear. It was necessary to make the most efficient working system. Losses in the market strongly stimulate this. In theory and ex post facto, the chart worked well., Besides, давно, in several other market conditions it worked fine. I was interested in signals on hourly timeframes.
I described the problems in the previous post..

For testing, we monitored 10 currency pairs, gold, silver
Today we have such a picture.



Now there is one unclosed unprofitable position in the minus area 2-3%. The conditions for passing the point of no return have not yet triggered, but limited by stop loss, just in case.

The maximum drawdown of the deposit was 27%. Количество убыточных сделок 17%. Increase position size, with the growth of the deposit, not carried out. The deals were either covered completely, either half, with the transfer of the balance to breakeven.

First third of the graph – the system is still damp – trying to take all the signals, regardless of the picture of the graphs. Experiments with stops and transfers to breakeven. Hit on the raskolbas, with carry-overs thereof. Further, discarding unnecessary signals, feet – mental (ie. position is covered manually, upon the occurrence of certain market conditions). The third part – interesting too. Something has come “decay” Equity. What was connected with? Signal is triggered – I come in – the price goes my way, but does not reach the goal, turns against the position, but the point of no return does not pass – transferring TP to breakeven – closes in plus. Вобщем-то, it was this series that prompted a solution. Then I will try a proportional increase in the lot and the magic power of compound interest.

Interview with a trader: Том Болдуин

Том Болдуин (Tom Baldwin) has an intimidating reputation as the single largest private trader in the T-Bond pit, volume trader, which are comparable to the volumes of large banks and financial institutions. Tom became famous when he rose to volume in 2,000 Contracts (more $200 million!). On an average day, he can attract even 20,0000 Contracts ($2 billion!!!). Renting your first spot in the CBOT pit in 1982 year, Tom moved quickly from crowd to crowd, breaking the resistance in front of her. As Tom himself says, trader in the pit – “this is the job of creating a market”. Tom speaks often “Establishing a Treasury Bond Market (T-bonds) – this is my job”.
Excerpt from an interview with one of the most successful scalpers.

How did you first become interested in trading?

In graduate school, I did a bit of research on commodity markets.. I wanted to trade, but I didn't have the funds to buy a place. IN 1982 year I found out, that a trading place on the exchange can be rented, that's where I started.

You have always wanted to trade as a private trader and nothing else?

Yes.

How did you learn to trade?

By lot at a time. I always had my own opinion. I stood idle all day on the site and worked out my point of view. When I found myself right, it stimulated me, even if I did not conduct transactions. So when I was trading, then from the experience of his daily six-hour observation of the market he knew, that I will almost certainly be right. The same scenarios were constantly unfolding before my eyes.

Do you mean market patterns or specific actions of traders?

Both. Market patterns have been consistently repeated, and the players in the market stubbornly did the same. It only remained to take advantage of this.

How were your first months? You made a profit from the start?

Think, that I've never been in the red by more than 19 Ticks. Means, one might say, that I started well.

You came to the site without preparation. What saved you from mistakes?

I worked hard - every day from opening to closing, six hours a day.

But you had no experience at all, to lean on.

And he is not needed. No education is required for this job. The smarter you are, the harder it is for you. The more you know, so much the worse for you.

What with your trading style - and this is scalping - you expect to get, opening a deal?

Get as much as possible. used to, that the profit from the transaction was whole points, and sometimes - only 1 straight. You never know in advance. Need to watch the market, feel it and, if you have the right position, just follow him.

Probably, the duration of your trades is very, very short?

I try to shorten the duration.

It's about minutes?

Yes, or even about seconds. It's just less risk. The main goal remains unchanged: reduce risk.

By style, you've always been a scalper?

My style has evolved from pure scalping to combining scalping with positional speculation.

What is the share of your positional trades in relation to scalping trades today??

She is small, less 10 Percent.

Means, you still have basically the same trading style today, where did we start?

Quite right.

You are using any technical data?

Yes, i use charts.

If according to the charts you are oriented in a bullish direction, then whether you will necessarily scalp up?

Not necessary. I will open a position according to my initial assessment, but I will rebuild, as soon as something convinces me.

You haven't had losing months?

Was, one or two.

But not two in a row?

Not, never.

What is the percentage of those, who stayed on the site after five years of trading, in relation to the losers and those who left the market?

Less left 20 Percent. But this is a rough estimate, in fact, there may be even fewer.

And what is the percentage of those, who managed to earn and save at least two million dollars?

One percent.

In other words, this is a very small part of traders.

Yes, everything is the same here, as in any other business. How many people will become president of General Motors?

Did you know, than this 1 percentage is different from the rest 99?

I know. Firstly, It's hard work. Persistence. You need to love what you do. Besides, in our business you need to be absolutely indifferent to money. Can't trade for money.

You mean, that you keep the position, while you like her? That is, you will not have such a thought.: “On this deal, I’m losing 1 million dollars, but I could buy a beautiful house for him ". And you will not evaluate your position in terms of reality..

That's it. Although most do otherwise.

I guess, it can be reformulated like this: you need to have almost absolute fearlessness.

Right.

Is it typical for successful traders: they are less fearful, than losers?

Yes.

Will you be able to evaluate a newcomer on the site and say, will he succeed or not?

Can.

What will tell you, that this is a loser?

The biggest sign of a failure is lack of hard work.. Most newbies believe, that the odds of winning and losing for any trade are equal 50/50. They don't think about more. They are not collected, don't follow the factors, which influence the market. You can see it in their eyes - like a wall in front of them.

Do you mean fundamental factors?

Not, I'm talking about paying attention to the behavior of other markets, such as the Dow Jones or gold. About observing traders in the hall.

And graphic models?

I mean them too.

In other words, they are not careful enough. Stand on the site, trying here or there to grab a deal, but do not absorb everything, what's going on around them.

Right. Besides, their costs are usually too high. They can't wait long enough, to understand what is happening. After all, here, as in any other job, "If you suffer for a long time, something will work out". The point is only, how much to afford to stand on the site before making a deal.

do you really think so?

well, the average person may not be a millionaire trader, but if it takes five years here, then he will certainly understand, what is what. No work can be started without it, to feel insecure for the first six months.

You succeeded.

Yes, but I started out as a one-lot trader. And I really didn't feel confident in this business, because I was obliged to make money.

When did you believe, what will you succeed?

Interest Ask. You can't really be sure in this business., because at any moment you can very quickly pull everything down. I trade by the principle: "He who lives by the sword and will perish by the sword". There is always a chance of hitting a market prong in a large position., going against you at the price limit. On the other hand, I have no doubt, that I can enter any market in the world and earn.

How often do you have losing days?

One losing day in ten.

Has this relationship changed over time?

It persists for a long time.

What, In your opinion, ordinary nonprofessional traders do it wrong?

They trade too much. They are not selective enough in their deals.. Noticing the market movement, they want to start trading immediately. As a result, it turns out, that they are more likely to impose deals on the market, instead of patiently waiting for his favor. Patience is an important quality, which many lack.

We must wait for the right deal?

Right. I bet, that most traders, probably, go to a profitable level after the first five trades. This profit seems to them free. But then they forget, what did you earn on the first deals, because they waited a long time, before you tell yourself: “It's time to buy, we have seen the same market behavior so many times ”. And they were right. And then they suddenly start doing deals hourly.. Then they lose on several trades and inevitably face the question, how to take losses. They started with profits, but, without even having time to blink an eye, found themselves with their. Now they hesitate, pondering, when to exit the market. But the market does not hesitate and goes further and further by the minute.. Now they are already losing and understanding, what, selling immediately, will lose 1000 Doll. They do not want to part with 1000 Doll., because at their main job they receive 500 Doll. in Week. And they suddenly start thinking about money.

You start thinking about money and you're done?

Yes, this is usually the case with non-professionals.

How do you personally deal with losses?

Exiting the deal.

Quickly?

If I can. My strength is in great patience, and I'm waiting. Considering the deal a losing one, I'm waiting for the optimal, from my point of view, moment to dismount. I try to close and reverse the position.

Means, If you feel, that you don't like the deal anymore, then you will not leave it, without waiting for the right moment?

Right, but i will get out of the deal.

Suppose, what do you do it in the market, which turned into a one way street. At what point you just have to admit defeat?

It depends on whether, how far the market has advanced against my position. If far away, then at some point you just have to give up. Days like this happen, maybe, three or four times a year, and you just have to fold positions.

But usually you feel, when is it time to act?

Yes, because it has happened before.

However, if the trade is not yet very unprofitable, it's usually better to wait, when the market moves slightly in your direction, and try to sell on the rise or buy on the decline, than just pouring everything out in a hurry and indiscriminately. Correct?

Yes.

Can this be attributed to the essential elements of your trading style??

Yes. You can't give up right away. Many traders, having a losing position, rush to close it just because, that they were brought up like that. Perfectly, such traders will always be near you. But if they have a little patience, you would say to yourself: "Yes, it's a losing trade, but, may be, instead of immediately leaving at 7, I'll sweat for another minute and be able to sell at 10 ".

But, may be, they close positions simply because, that they want to end their suffering? They endure a little more, and they would be better. Is not it?

Right. They give up too quickly. More often, if you don't give up, you can turn "five billion" losses into "two billion".

The scale of your operations has clearly grown dramatically compared to, how did you start. Did it complicate the trade?

Yes, have to adapt: change buying and selling techniques, as the market is constantly changing slightly.

What do charts give you?

Key points, such as weekly highs and lows, midpoints of corrections and areas of consolidation.

You use charts for short-term trading or long-term market analysis?

For short-term trading.

How short-term?

The shorter, all the better. The faster you withdraw profit, the less the risk.

Are you using fundamental factors?

Is always, when important fundamental data comes out, i use them.

You use fundamental data indirectly, watching the market reaction to new information. Is not it?

So. But I also try to be the first to play on new fundamental data.. I know in advance, what to do depending on, what will be this or that indicator, and therefore usually have the advantage of the first.

You try to stay ahead of the crowd and usually win.. Correct?

Yes.

What role does luck play in trading??

Trading is like any other job. Lucky that, who works hard, investing your time and energy. I'm lucky, that my first 100-lot sale was successful. But why am I lucky? Because I stood on the site for more than six months, developing and honing a sense of the market. When the opportunity came, I didn't hesitate.

Luck comes at a price.

Right.

Are there those, who, not being good traders, got ahead thanks to, that they were lucky enough to make a couple of big deals in the right direction? Is it possible to succeed only through luck??

Not, maybe not for long. According to my estimates, if you last a year, then you will continue to trade, but it's not easy.

Are there such traders, whose opinion you take into account, respecting their work?

Yes, certainly. They are my indicators.

Means, this is part of your trading method. For example, if good trader X is short and you are going to sell - …

That, means, I'm right.

And if he buys?

Then you will think about it. Maybe, it's better to abstain from the deal altogether.

Do you know traders, who are unlucky due to overly unshakable conceit?

I know.

Is a willingness to give up on your own mind contributing to your success??

Certainly. You have to adapt to your success. When you make tons of money, you suddenly start to feel infallible. You forget about, that they owe their innocence to all those little things, which you tracked. As soon as you start to consider yourself the smartest, you immediately get it in the nose.

That is, it makes no difference, your idea or not. Only victories and defeats are taken into account. And where the idea came from - it doesn't matter?

Right.

Does a good trader need to be very self-confident?

Actually, The best traders, vice versa, distinguished by humility. To be the best, self-confidence is needed, but only in the sense of believing in yourself. You can't let your ego interfere with a losing trade., you need to humble your pride and close yourself.

You keep on working, because you like it?

Yes. Hope, that this will continue to be the case.

Maybe, most important is Baldwin's assertion that, that trade cannot be viewed as a means of satisfying material needs. Money for him is just a settlement tool. Most traders, vice versa, tend to assess their losses and profits in the context of consumption, what prevents them from making adequate trading decisions.

Another interesting statement by Baldwin is at odds with conventional wisdom.: “Don't rush to close a losing trade, but rather wait for the right moment ". Similar advice, it would seem that, challenges most trading advice. After all, the main guarantee of trading success is to immediately stop losses.! I doubt, that Baldwin is against this rule. Think, he means, which is often the worst of all to fold a position during a strong counter price movement. Baldwin claims, what, holding on a little longer, you can get more favorable conditions for exit. Certainly, this approach can only be recommended for disciplined traders: the, who can follow a risk management strategy.

Forex and gold.

Double Top in Eurodollar, the pound can also fall out of the channel and then the zone is likely 1.57. Not everything is so simple in gold yet, but an interesting pattern can be realized .

UPD. A futures S&P overstrained, although many thought, what goes up next, yes and me, despite the bearish sentiment, began to doubt.

Gold & CB

Central banks buying gold, it's enchanting. They have more real problems., than usual. Now the capital of the hein negative will appear. Yes, and as a result of interventions, too.. This is not in favor of the fall of gold., it's not in favor of the collapse of the system, this is in favor of remarkable volatility..

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