JPY
why do people say about Japan `` the lost decade ''?
for two decades now and the third is stubbornly approaching.
humor
win-win
Win #1
1) in 2007-2008 nothing bad happened (“the crisis came from America”)
2) if it happened, then ЕМ will grow according to the growth trend of potential GDP
3) Potential GDP EM is obtained from labor + capital + technologies (institutional factors = fairy tale)
4) eventually, risky assets will rise. and there will be inflation. high.
Win #2
1) developed countries may not grow for a while
2) this is politically unacceptable, will actively stimulate. monetary.
3) no balance problem. “money printing” increases denmass. and will give inflation. high.
4) money will depreciate in relation to non-money. risky assets on a horse.
(stocks will lag first, they tolerate inflation poorly in a short period)
And so inflation, and so inflation.
Well well.. We went through this two years ago.
I just want to say, that inflation is a monetary phenomenon,
but there is such a funny thing as the inefficiency of the economy, shock offers..
Look at India for example. And then on EM CPI without India.
By the way, and what is the reason for the agricultural growth this year? Ethanol again?))
Or did it QE manage to stay in reserves, but will seep,
like Stirlitz to the secret factory for the production of felt boots?
mysteries of the Ukrainian market
in September S&P 500 grew up on 8,8%, UX Index decreased by 1,1%. my target was 2150, what would mean +8,6% for ukrrynka. well, my beloved 'there is no ukrrynka, there is a parody of a risky asset" подвела, which rather pleases. Yes, people are rather pessimistic, but that's definitely good. for example: "хм… but our market has no future .. ". him and 5 years ago there was. nothing, and you can live with a lack of prospects.
Yes, all kinds of forecasts and targets, it is definitely a finger touch on the ceiling. just intellectual gambling, unpretentious. when i'm interested in targets, then I am interested in the rationale. the number itself does not mean anything, ес-но.
as a bonus.
Welcome to the tea party
remember, what I wrote about a Japanese comrade in the 1930s?)
Events / news that I missed, and which seemed interesting
***Possible merger of Uralkali and Silvinit. Say, such a monster will become number 2 after Potash himself. And if the latter is still bought, then honorary # 1 himself.
***It hardly matters to Argentina how high international wheat prices go in the wake of Russia’s export ban: its producers are unlikely to be able to cash in. (FT) Все как всегда. Not known, which drives up food prices more in short periods, short-term supply shocks, speculators or officials. ()
***Mining executives and analysts estimate that iron ore prices for the fourth quarter will drop by 10-15% and coking coal prices by 5-10%, pushing down steel prices or widening steelmakers’ profit margins. ()
****Argentina’s central bank on Thursday relaxed key monetary targets after overshooting annual goals for growth in monetary aggregates, heralding a stance that favours stoking growth over reining in inflation. Nothing special yet, но интересно.. ()
*** About the erroneous statement, that stock markets are rapidly losing their retail participants.
***Dynamics of mortgage lending in European countries. ()
*** McDonald's issues yuan-denominated bonds …. ()
*** . I agree, now everyone is contrarian, but as O'Neal recently pointed out correctly (if I'm not mistaken, it seems he) about the euro, this is somehow too much..
*** The name speaks for itself))
Japan – China
“There is something unnatural about the fact that China can buy Japanese government bonds while Japan cannot [buy Chinese bonds],” Yoshihiko Noda, the Japanese finance minister said. ()
True, the strengthening of the yen is attributed to the evil Chinese, it is the same, what is the hryvnia in 2008 on speculators.
At all, all comments from Japanese comrades, they are rather political and for a long time.
They must be scared, про Takahashi Korekiyo помнят.
more from Rubini
EVERY – Chernobyl Death Obligations
fix losses
I've seen it so often in real time from the side, what a horror))
not stupid we look at how we lose, a & quot; aaa, why did I do it!!!"
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