Mining.com posted a picture over a year ago, where compares the value of the GSCI and S indices&P 500. GSCI is an index, which includes raw material prices: oil, aluminum, gold, pork, sugar and more. S&P 500 - index of shares of American companies.
Someone here called to short. Yea Yea… Koreans spoiled the signal a little, and so everything is clear in the medium term. Preparing for the rally. They will give, I think, пониже.
Let's check the system for the medium term. I'm already happy with small TFs. Sberbank Futures, yes and Ri, walked like clockwork.
Today or tomorrow at the MICEX, completion of the local corrective movement, so what is next – RALLE :)
Cancellation of growth – if prices leave, during correction, below 1540 on the Mamba.
Для френдов, interested in this post I will illustrate in examples. К слову говоря, I have known about the described thing for a long time (it is in the literature too, and on the internet, maybe not so systematically), what does not bother me, lose money successfully, playing against the obvious. Maybe, this is a clinic. Or commitment to public opinion. Or the desire to show yourself smarter than the market.
So here. Often (they say, to 70% time) there is a flat situation on the market. I love her so much, and I earn, mostly, in this period, но порою…
First section – flat. Masks are intertwined, Oscillators and countertrend from the range boundaries rule. As the situation can go on indefinitely, we get used to it. And that's when the breakdown comes. Section two – RSI overbought, we are sure – the ejection is false and will now go back. В шорт! Trampled on the spot, the price resumes its upward movement (section three). RSI overbought again. Add shorts. In this moment, the fan of averages has already opened, as if indicating the further direction of movement. On various charts, one can observe, what usually happens next, and is it worth playing against “Fans”.
Let's consider Russian stocks.
In Sberbank – prolonged upward trend. MAs are parallel to each other. It is strictly forbidden to short such things. (what i read about again, in their old records), because. trend may accelerate, especially in the final stages. Although now it is possible to admit a correction to the area 97-98.
Gazprom is in a phase 2. Out of range, and opened up “fan of medium”. In theory, there must be a continuation of the movement, after a slight decline. If religion does not allow buying at such levels, then you definitely can't short it.
All, no more long-term predictions, even for myself. Do you want to make God laugh, tell us about your plans.
Date:
Get drunk:
Going to the website of Georgy Verbitsky, found a very correct article on the nature of the movements of the Russian stock market in the future. It's hard to disagree with the author. I have said many times, that the more mature the Russian stock market becomes, the more flat and confusing the movements of the index as a whole will be, and multidirectional individual securities. Summer situation 2010, when many shouted, that it became very difficult to earn, will be the norm, but shock days – редким исключением. RSI and MACD divergence will drive, reversal patterns and counter-trend tactics. Naturally, following the trend will not go anywhere, but will be more pronounced in some individual issuers. Those, who doesn't want to adapt, and accept the new rules of the game – will be sent to create wealth. Or spiritual. Good luck.
It should be noted that the critics' opinion that the stock market is losing its attractiveness and investors, one by one, are leaving it forever.. If this trend continues — the market will get stuck in a corridor and over time the shares will be sold at fixed prices.
Too much responsibility lies in one-sided prediction. Gotta balance. Actually, after all, может быть и так:
US stock market development plan for the next quarter-second.
