Distortion of glued futures charts.
All the same, glued futures charts, so-called continuous backadjusted, where charts are shifted to close gaps between contracts, sometimes just have a very large error. look, for example, what the quarterly glued backadjusted Natural Gas futures chart looks like
It is seen, that the graph in remote years has shifted so high up that it is just a misunderstanding. This happened due to the fact that contango accumulated in the transitions between contracts., or backwardation, I can’t figure out what exactly, but because of this, in each month, the previous historical data constantly shifted upwards and in the end they were so adjusted that the graph was distorted beyond recognition.
But in fact, the natural gas graph looks like this as shown in the picture below.. This graph was glued together using the continuous spliced method — that is, between the contracts of neighboring months there was such a gap as it actually was and the schedules did not move anywhere.
The first graph gives the impression that Natural Gas has nowhere to fall., since the whole story is falling and the rise to heaven must begin. But from the true, on the second chart, it can be assumed that it is possible to fall as long as the historical lows are still far from being reached.
