history

EM forecast up to 2030 from GS

1) I do not idolize developed countries and do not dislike developing ones.
2) Agree with the concept of 'rise of the rest'.
3) But I disagree, that in EM the same GDP p.c. is possible., as in DM.

Ie. I am generally optimistic.
But sometimes some predictions are shocking.
Below are predictions from GS. Note the 20-year GDP CAGR for China and others.

Я уж подумал, that they just laid a crazy revaluation in the forecasts.
Turns out, what is not weak, but intelligible.

Что такого?
The fact, what is supposed, that the following 20 years will be better than previous 30.
Вам не кажется, it's unlikely.

At the expense of:
and) comparison base effect, it's easier to grow from zero.
b) need for quality, not quantitative growth.

history: various promotions in longrun

then, that in longrun small capitalization beats large, or growth beats value,
it's not quite right. at least there are nuances. вообще же, if you are sure that one is definitely better than the other, then you are a supporter of religion;)

well, taxation, where without him))
нижняя граница – worst case taxation.

history: longrun stocks and bonds

just discussing with colleagues the other day,
well, as always, I seem to remember everything, but there may be a mistake in the details)

at all, you can think of stocks in the long run like this:
* growth in value at the level of GDP growth, ie. for the USA 2%-3%
* by reinvesting dividends, something like 8%
* the first is more important than the second for memorization;) 

there are two things to remember about bonds:
* these are not promotions for you, inflation will bury everything in longran
* when capital preservation is more important than loss from inflation – this is a trifle compared to the cyclical loss of value of shares / other assets, the more raw materials.

briefly about demography

the growth of the world's population is slowing down. there are regions where it happens faster, where is slower, where does not happen. while the latter does not in any way cancel the first. Again, population growth is slowing down. sure, that forecasts have the main risk – Downside. Again, we are talking about the planet as a whole.

several fragments.

countries in which population growth has contributed more than 1% in the general growth of the world's population.

predicted contribution to total population growth up to 2030 of the year

population growth rate in the top 5 countries that are 2030 year will add more than all the new population


 

with all due respect to Africa and the Middle East, size matters.
for the global economy, the transformation of a very small country into a medium-sized one practically means nothing.

GDP p.c. in the context

express note on GDP and demographics. (World)
difference in population growth rates and real GDP (the great Angus Maddison)

for periods

average annual

average annual growth rate

separately about demography.
if you still think, that the earth is in danger of overpopulation, then this is already mauvais ton. population growth rate is decreasing (yields by the way too), in China, too, ksati, the demographic problem is maturing. there are three problems with data handling.

1) historical data is conditional (what do you think is the accuracy of the data from the beginning of our era?))
2) there is no single overview and all-embracing Law of the universe (as there is progress, War, illness, etc.)
3) scholars' assessments (forecasts) are also inertial and amenable to trends and fashions as well as the forecasts of wall street.

note without thoughts.

Corporate profits S&P 500

if you remember, a year ago there was a lot of talk about, that DovJones needs to fall by 1k.
the idea was supported by the dynamics of corporate profits (besides waves and other predictions).

if you look at the corporate profits of companies from S&P 500 (EPs), then it will turn out,
that profits fell to zero, then grew back at a frantic pace (which also confused some).

the dynamics of EPs used by Schiller year-on-year looks like this.
падение на 100% with subsequent restoration (what created such a growth rate).

might seem, that this time is different and we really have a disaster,
however, the scale of the fall created the financial sector (which was previously
less public – investment banks were partnerships), 
therefore, the financial traded sector has never had such write-offs..

excluding financial sector from EPs, no drama is visible.
(numbers forecast for 2011 from S itself&P)

you can add – and the weight of the financial sector in the indices was also, 
at a historically extremely high level. in fact, это не имеет значения.

EPs – is the sum of the earnings per share of all the companies that make up the index.
ie. profits are not weighted by capitalization, from what, for example, he was very indignant
Jeremy Siegel here And here.

I also want to add a comparison of real and nominal growth rates of corporate profits.
in fact, corporate profits are very volatile, therefore, the difference in inflation in different
historical periods are almost invisible.

about the Ukrainian market and Great Divergence

about the Ukrainian market

interview with Mr. Oksanych. quite good, you can read very much.

I really have my own fad, we need low inflation and the foreign exchange market, retirement money alone" can form the internal financial market for an extremely long time. what if 50% GDP will have to be hedged, this will give a boost to everything and everyone))

Great Divergence

many know, that at some point China stopped developing, Europe put pressure on and we got a familiar world to which we are already accustomed. have some ideas why and, what is weird, When did it happen. always thought, what happened this (the beginning has begun) whenZheng He sailed my voyages. And then it all came together: izlation / tradition + demography + the development strategy of the Western world was more progress-oriented + The Western world had access to resources, which made it easier to overcome periods of low intensity progress without Malthusian consequences.

recently found out, what is the idea according to which, the break in the development of China and ZM occurred only after 1800 and the only reason – this is the lack of resources in China in sufficient quantities. when talking about the roots of ideas, they usually refer to here this work, which is undoubtedly provocative, but you need to be very straightforward in order not to see the formation of a new angle of view in the work, seeing a new dogma.

in general, this someone described the problem very well:

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