Earlier, I already wrote about a part of that trader's toolkit., which I myself use in my trade (cm. статью «Инструментарий«)
Since my main specialization is precisely the graphical analysis of Japanese candlesticks on Forex, futures. promotions, in this post I will try to reveal this topic in more detail.
so, I use stock charts to analyze market situations and predict prices. If speech […]
I looked so quickly at the MICEX chart and for some reason , given the latest momentum, the thought arose of a possible failure before 1150-1050 zones in case of continued weakness in oil and the slightest SPX correction. Something in this ascending structure I do not like internally….
William Delbert Gunn, best known worldwide as W. D. Gann, is a legend in the world of stock trading. He was one of the most successful, ever lived, stock traders. W. D. Gann was born 6 June 1878 on a farm about seven miles from Lufkin, in texas. He was the first of 11 children of Sam Huston Gunn and Susan Gunn. The Gunn family lived in a very small house without any frills. They were poor and young Willie walked seven miles to Lufkin for three years, to attend school. His father was a farmer in Angelina Country.. They were all worried about the price, which their cotton will bring. If you asked young Willie, did he want, when you get older, also cultivate the soil in East Texas, then he, probably, would say “No”, he didn't think so – he wanted to be a businessman. But work, which he could do on the farm, was more important to the family, so William never finished elementary or high school. Like the eldest son, he had a special responsibility, and those years of work on the farm, maybe, laid the foundation for his hard work habits.
For some inactive position traders and investors with limited financial resources, the use of cheaper online brokers may be preferable. Trader, perpetrator 1-2 transactions per month and holding open positions for weeks or months, - direct access is hardly needed. But active traders cannot do without direct access. The ability to quickly respond to changes in the market situation is the basis for the successful work of an active trader. Especially, that most of us have become day traders today - even if we do not consider ourselves to be such. According to the entered into force 28 September 2001 G. new SEC and NASD rules, day traders are market participants, committing 4 or more deals for 5 trading days. If the share of such transactions does not exceed 6% of the total number, the client is not considered a day trader. The minimum deposit for day traders is now $25,000. At the same time, the purchasing power is increased (shoulder up 1:4).
Anticipating the flight of rotten tomatoes in my direction, I will make a reservation right away, that I only post the results of trades on an experimental account and do not pretend to be an absolute truth. Only facts.
Averaging has both supporters, and fierce opponents. The first is favored by, for example, my LJ friend shlakoblock, critics, to my mind, an order of magnitude more. Months ago, we talked with one friend about trade, and was expressed (not new, in general,) thought, what if you observe iron money management, do not place stops and average over a certain number of pips, from levels, without martingale, “firing off” unprofitable positions only when they are compensated by profitable ones, you can get a high-yield trading system. It was decided to confirm the assumption experimentally. I opened a small real on forex. The trading result can be seen on the chart.
At first I traded almost haphazardly, for different currency pairs, pipsed, came in anyhow, caught daggers. The account started to sink. There were very distant feet, but they worked, and, almost simultaneously (9 September on the chart). Thereafter, miraculously, the price has returned to the starting point. I made a deposit and started trading a little more systematically – results have improved, but still, the game moment was still present, as well as a serious loss on open positions (in the moment reached 400 pips plus a few averages). The period from the beginning of November is of real interest.. In three weeks, more than 100% to the depot. How did you manage to achieve such results?? I will not say, what part of the depot you need to open a position and how much to average. Experiment yourself, if there is a desire. I will only say, less and less often, the less risky the system. General postulates. Flat, relatively slow, currency pair, with pullbacks and reversals (in my case eurodollar). The carry trade and the stock market will not work. Counter-trend entry tactics. Ie. watch a 4-hour chart and outline price levels. We position ourselves short from certain levels, from certain to long, main, do not catch fast-flying candles. Actually, we catch the top (but not to hang up). Exit by take profit (usually 10-40 pips) We smoke bamboo between levels. It might be wrong, because. skip the main movement, but I am describing a specific system. If you make a mistake and the price goes further – add up after a certain number of pips, transferring the minus pose to breakeven.
PS Technical parameters. Yield 178% in less than three months. Trades 325. Positive deals 93%.
, I think, you saw it, heard and already know what the matter is.
Besides, что график 5летних трежарис "смотрелся" up long ago (yield down), I had no special considerations,
although I've been shouting about bonds for a month)
my interpretation, probably still the same for the same too significant period of time.
task (for example, the Fed) – stretch the period of adaptation to a new reality – survive the bubble-not-bubble-but-something-unpleasant collapse calmly, to avoid fate 29-33 and Japan (comparisons for beauty, eu-but situations overlap in scale and circumstances).
in other words – the task is to ensure a soft landing, how will it go.
the economic growth – 1) inventory cycle; 2) confidentiality (everyone managed to get scared, but everyone managed to suffer); 3) incentive – what did someone expect, that they won't work (their task is to stop the fall, not to ensure growth).
the transition to such a mental structure by the market gives us a curvature of the yield curve (growth of long rates, reduction of short), which, in general, is a normalization of market expectations.
a plus, increased demand for short securities may be fueled by fears of near-term currency risk shocks.
or depleting the potential of any emerging markets, which will reorient keritrade flows into the interior of the United States (plus and foreign exchange risk is eliminated).
certainly, as always, all this may not mean anything, especially for stocks.
but here he is the first really strong sign, about that, what all, arrived, ride, now it's time to carry the sled.
the question is not about the distribution of pies, but on any outskirts in the center of the world, panic can be arranged)
Balancing in a very narrow range.
Of some 55 points.
Oh break through and let's go…
***
I noticed an interesting bullshit. What is intuition? One option is fast logic. So fast, that you yourself do not have time to realize. So here. It happens that I open the chart and at that second "fuck, need to be short ". Then I start to doubt, after all, there was really no analysis. While I doubt everything goes down. And again "damn, need to be short "… And again doubts, this time already on the topic of the departed train. And again everything continues to fly down. As a result, for the third time I enter the position and perfectly catch the corrective movement against myself. Or even a reversal…
But it gets worse! I enter the position as it should, but out of doubt (or something else) close. .
Who said, that the MICEX is not technical.
Here is a 2x hourly chart with a drawn channel from the distant past. :)))