I'll leave yesterday's deals for a record in LJ. Let anyone who needs to draw a chart on them and look at the trade around
I do not indicate the position size.
Chicago time
RDERS SUMMARY ( Futures:GLOBEX:Mini S&P:ACCOUNT )
Strategy:
Open Positions:
Average Price: 1180.217
Trade Time Type Trade Price (Points)
Sberbank is under such a heavy cap, that without a powerful new impulse on the external background it will be difficult for him to make a new high. Therefore, LONG people need to be on the lookout..
I'll tell you in secret, that i'm SHORT starting today in the model portfolio :)) The stop is very clearly visible
Judging by the schedule, trend 2 hourly chart remains in force, although you can see, that the last top did not reach the upper channel line., negative reversal formation can also be expected. Tomorrow 8 April so I will SHORT overnight, during the day I will probably go to SHORT, if the market is weak. The size of the position will depend on what the close will be.
If you look at the daytime picture, but still unfinished, then you can see some negative. We approached the green trend line and MA(14-15) is also approaching. So the bulls need to hold it, and vice versa for bears.
From a fundamental point of view, a couple of days ahead are full of important data as well..
Think, that today you can draw a negative hammer!
Means……..
I gradually restore the SHORT to a good size.
Update
Volume in the last hour is a record for the last time,. if my schedule doesn't lie.
Tomorrow should continue to fall regardless of the news, the picture may change only by closing( maybe)
A PLUS 3.5%, left to fight off 2% about. So I have no doubt, that I will do much more in the near future!
in wonderful graph of the ratio of US market capitalization to GDP.
you can guess about the conclusion. We have been overrated since the 1990s..
the moment of adding NASDAQ we will omit. well, not everyone knows, that more companies mean more capitalization.
but, there is one basic point that should be understood by everyone initially.
capitalization / gdp ratio is not used to determine fair benchmarks for share prices!!!!!!!
this ratio is used to indirectly judge the degree of development of the financial market. all. dot.
if, when calculating this ratio, we neutralize the change in the number of public companies, and for international comparison, somehow weigh on the share of public companies in the profits of the entire corporate sector (or something else), then you can already with a stretch aim at overcooked / oversold.
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The situation is interesting. Despite the pulling out of the American market, Russian stubbornly does not want to grow and even began to correct. What is this, compression of the spring before firing upwards, or shaping the Head and Shoulders? Provided the RTS chart for variety. On the MICEX, the alignment is similar.
Been busy all day , so a quick glance at the daytime SPX.
Major trend and support line is represented by a green upward line.
Resistance at the upper point of the negative candlestick at 1170 SPX. If we close above, then it is possible and will creep up again, while serious technical and fundamental weaknesses remain.
Retail data came out good today. Commods are resistant except for gold.
My relatively small short is valid , in case of breakdown 1170 per spot, I'll close it soon , but I will also go from any point, where will I see negative momentum. Stop will add to the minus approximately 2%. While SHORT is generally minus percent 5%-6%., what is beaten off …
Sugar watching and possibly forming a temporary bottom.
Here is the daily SPX chart, to visualize what to expect in the time zone of 19 March-8 April.
19 Martha, as i assumed, turned out to be a critical day, judging by the magnitude of the fall in comparison with the previous activity. Momentum stopped at the intersection of the vertical line 19 March and purple mini trend line. I personally underestimated, that it should have happened at the mark 1170, thought, which is too early to storm such heights. Assuming, that we have formed a candlestick formation, talking about local top, then support lines immediately appear when a rollback from these heights.
Obviously, what a high-speed uptrend line( Green colour) is the main support, as well as the horizontal line of the previous local top in the area 1150-1152. In case of closing below the intersection of these lines, a target for a more substantial support line will open, bottom line of the ascending channel( purple line).
One of the negative scenarios is a rollback to the vertical dotted line( fibo zone) this is the area 8 April.
Considering, that the support lines are dynamic, then the tentative goal of such a scenario is to 8 April == 1130.
Надо также отметить, that SPX has climbed a bit high relative to many MAs and therefore MAs themselves will be supports and one of the targets of a pullback.
Undoubtedly, that this scenario is likely in the absence of any super positive news.
Sunday brings us a vote in Congress and therefore this news risk could create an unpredictable reaction in the market..
Надо также отметить, that the end of the quarter is usually tried to close on a positive note window dressing. But the first week of April may be more negative.
As for the MICEX index, then i don't like, that the index is still not above the level 1455-1460 and below the trend line( green Line) while , that the RSI level is high and above 75. This is considered negative divergence.. Therefore, in the event of a correction in the foreign market, testing the area 1300 becomes highly probable.
The weekly chart also clearly shows RSI divergence.
It should be noted, that the flagships of the Russian market show divergences.
With regard to Gazprom, everything has been said before and remains relevant, you can see the charts in the Gazprom tag. If there are no intercessors in Gazprom, then it will be possible to witness the mark 150.
Sberbank, although better than Gazprom, but there are divergences on the weekly chart. And if 90 will remain a stumbling block, then " spring unwinding" to the area 55-60 quite likely(this is a pessimistic scenario).
